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Summer 2015 General Thunderstorm Thread


powderfreak

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Since I put models away .. Just wondering.. Is there anything that brings any semblance of storms into SNE?

 

the 22z HRRR which seems to have a solid handle on how things look now doesn't have anything for us.  That stuff near BGM it has fizzling out.  It does though develop some cells in eastern CT like around 8z.  

 

All we can do is just watch radar the next hour or so and see how that activity does.  Still lacking forcing/support.  New mesoanalysis should be out shortly so we'll see if any progress was made. 

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Amazing to me the way the cloud tops were dominantly cooler around ALB and then everything just warmed there and the tops went bonkers since to the NE.. Like over NH and ME. Still strong, still towering, colder tops and cells aplenty in the North Country. The cap is holding strong south of the pike. Cap well broken near Lake Winni lol. Ugh. Science would tell me to go to Andover. Seems northern areas have stronger shot just because of better forcing. That disco last night ended up being spot on. MCS or isolated severe for BOX WFO.

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Well the forcing is working east, albeit slowly.  Outside of central and eastern PA the most unstable air is actually across eastern MA and CT...with nothing going on in CT we should remain very unstable although it will tick down a bit.  That stuff near BGM still in a lesser unstable airmass...probably give it another hour and see how it does.  If it doesn't come up as it moves into a more unstable airmass than it probably won't materialize any further.  If the forcing can push east and keep in check with the activity it may be fine.  

 

Widespread severe probably unlikely but some isolated severe remains in the cards

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I'm not going to be upset...two reports of baseball sized hail (or near baseball), several reports of golf ball hail, and a few funnel cloud reports. I mean getting two hail reports near baseball in NE is fooking impressive

You don't live in that New England.
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There's no cap south of the pike. Hasn't been since mid day

No cu fields... everything was mid to high level clouds.. Terrain and local oragraphics seemed to fire up the ALB tor cell. Everything going bananas over the mountains and lakes..... Closer to s/w and had aid of localized effects.. I think cap had a lot to do with why we haven't had much impressive stuff here. Granted it allowed us to destabilize which is all well and good but we need an MCS or something to use what we have. Right now we just have unrelenting morning wood with no sign of relief.

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