BillHarding Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Insane lighting from the cell just to the west of Albany moving in. Round two here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 Is that 3-4" of rainfall within 1-2 hours along I-90/NYS Thruway? Difficult to travel in that type of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Is that 3-4" of rainfall within 1-2 hours along I-90/NYS Thruway? Difficult to travel in that type of rainfall. July_19alb.jpg could be hail contaminated but I'm sure they got their share of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Looks like that cell is beginning to outrun better upper-level support My money is on the fact it was a. discrete b. one of the first cells to initiate c. shear really maximized with the valley.. It's always been a late evening to overnight show. With the instability we have now and cells upstream someone is going to have some fun tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Super ominous sky here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Super ominous sky here right now. pics?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Cell behind it is now tor warned. Taking advantage of the Hudson again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 My money is on the fact it was (a) discrete ( one of the first cells to initiate © shear really maximized with the valley.. It's always been a late evening to overnight show. With the instability we have now and cells upstream someone is going to have some fun tonight. The cell was no doubt discrete and it happened to develop and move into an area where both shear and instability were pretty maximized. MLcapes were near 3000 J/KG with SBcapes 3500 J/KG and LI of -9 with very strong shear and some backed llvl winds. But it was also on the edge of probably the better upper support. My guess is after 8 before rest of SNE starts getting active. Once that s/w moves closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 we still have a little bit to go for areas really south of the Pike...the main s/w is still pretty far west and nose of MLJ I think is just getting into NYS You thinking after 10:00pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Storm out in the sticks near Caanan looks like it means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Tilt 2 (higher) north on that tor warned cell has a pretty tight couplet just above the surface. EDIT: gone in the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Tilt 2 (higher) north on that tor warned cell has a pretty tight couplet just above the surface. EDIT: gone in the next frame. It was also anticyclonic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 You thinking after 10:00pm? probably after 8:00 we see more activity develop but yeah it may be around 10 or so until we really see our chance. Let's just keep any of this junk away from us so the atmosphere doesn't get too overturned, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Cell behind it is now tor warned. Taking advantage of the Hudson again. I'm just a couple of miles south of the warning area. Doh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Wonder if the berkshires storm gain strength again once it hits the ct valley seems to be taking a more east track now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 pics?????? Raining too hard now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 GYX gung ho on some of these warnings, Not seeing much wind on velocity up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 probably after 8:00 we see more activity develop but yeah it may be around 10 or so until we really see our chance. Let's just keep any of this junk away from us so the atmosphere doesn't get too overturned, Hopefully this hasn't turned into a NY and NH threat. Still seems like decent shot of some type of MCS forming..Lots of stuff well NW int NY State and Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Hopefully this hasn't turned into a NY and NH threat. Still seems like decent shot of some type of MCS forming..Lots of stuff well NW int NY State and Canada I think for us we had to really rely on MCS formation b/c that would increase the likelihood of activity sliding down this way. Right now though all the better and support and forcing is still pretty well NW of us. Despite the highly moderate instability we have in place you still need good forcing and support and we're lacking that right now. If an MCS does organize outflow could be a focus for some extra forcing for us as well. Just have to watch how things transpire over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I think for us we had to really rely on MCS formation b/c that would increase the likelihood of activity sliding down this way. Right now though all the better and support and forcing is still pretty well NW of us. Despite the highly moderate instability we have in place you still need good forcing and support and we're lacking that right now. If an MCS does organize outflow could be a focus for some extra forcing for us as well. Just have to watch how things transpire over the next few hours. Yeah, north of pike unless isolated or mcs seems fair. especially since this blob of severe seems destined to roll down the nh/ma border into the evening. South of pike is more capped out plus cirrus overflowing and taking away some of the daytime heating that rt 2 and bos is still getting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Looks like some pretty weak sauce heading this way, ftl. 78.2/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Looks like some pretty weak sauce heading this way, ftl. 78.2/72 I mean beside that lightning filled severe cluster of storms coming directly at you... yeah ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I mean beside that lightning filled severe cluster of storms coming directly at you... yeah ftl LOL--I mean the one closing in, not the one toward Albany still. That said, just heard a rumbly (not my stomach). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Looks like some pretty weak sauce heading this way, ftl. 78.2/72 Lol. You crack me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 LOL--I mean the one closing in, not the one toward Albany still. That said, just heard a rumbly (not my stomach). Oh okay thank God because I was going to question your sanity. that seems to be congealing into something interesting. maybe our bow segment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Oh okay thank God because I was going to question your sanity. that seems to be congealing into something interesting. maybe our bow segment Yeah--the area moving in about 10 miles away looks to be all rain with the first lightning records hitting Williamstown. So, 30-35 miles west of here for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Lookout Shelburne MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 T&L with some torrential rain. Minimal gusts. Watching news(albany) and showing pics and video of trees down all over ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I tried looking at WV for the s/w but had trouble really finding it but maybe a more regionalized view would have helped. Anyways, latest mesonanalysis at 500mb you can see where the nose of the MLJ is located, pushing right into western NY. This is continuing to slide east and some steepening of the lapse rates also occurring given height falls. We continue to be highly unstable and this will continue even past dark. Once this better jet energy gets closer we should see more activity develop. I am somewhat nervous about down here in CT Kevin b/c it's possible you and I are just a tad south but you may actually be in a better spot than me. A couple other notes of interests: There is some decent dew point pooling going on in the CT Valley with dews well into the lower 70's. This is something that should hold in place through the evening and that, along with steep and steepening lapse rates are going to keep us quite unstable. Despite sfc winds in the Hudson which looked to be mainly SW, the storm motion was actually nearly perpendicular to the llvl flow so that allowed for enhanced helicity and also may have explained the anti-cyclonic rotation Ryan pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Severe warning here in Littleton. Very dark sky to the west. A few rumbles of thunder already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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