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Summer 2015 General Thunderstorm Thread


powderfreak

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...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...NEW ENGLAND...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NY/PA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S HELPING TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF VT/NH/ME/MA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER
ME SUGGEST A MARGINAL RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

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Special statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook both mention hail as possibility

I would love to see a nickel producer, but that almost never happens in my area.

Even dime sized are very very rare here

Yeah what is up with that?  I feel when I lived in Natick I saw hail every couple years.  Granted this will be only my 3rd summer in this area.   A greater quantity of storms out this way though. 

 

And I'm just curious as to the point of this thread? It's annoying switching between 3 threads when there are so few posts a day.....

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Yeah what is up with that?  I feel when I lived in Natick I saw hail every couple years.  Granted this will be only my 3rd summer in this area.   A greater quantity of storms out this way though. 

 

And I'm just curious as to the point of this thread? It's annoying switching between 3 threads when there are so few posts a day.....

 

I think the title pretty much covers this one

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mcd0820.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...PORTIONS OF VT...MA...CT...SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281530Z - 281630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AHEAD
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE

STRONGEST STORMS. ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 16Z.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING
IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH
ERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S/NEAR 80

AND DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER ME TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER SERN NY. LATEST RAP-BASED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ONLY A
MODEST AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL HEATING IS REQUIRED FOR TSTM INITIATION
IN THE VCTY OF THE SFC TROUGH. IN FACT...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA.
EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40 TO 50 KTS OF SWLY EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPE /AVERAGING 1000 TO 1500
J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER/. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ONE OR TWO WW ISSUANCES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 16Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

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Yeah what is up with that?  I feel when I lived in Natick I saw hail every couple years.  Granted this will be only my 3rd summer in this area.   A greater quantity of storms out this way though. 

 

And I'm just curious as to the point of this thread? It's annoying switching between 3 threads when there are so few posts a day.....

One for models, one for off topic, one for thunderstorms. Lot easier to go back and find events when things aren't mega-threaded.

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SPC MCD #0820

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0820.html

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...PORTIONS OF VT...MA...CT...SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281530Z - 281630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AHEAD
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE

STRONGEST STORMS. ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 16Z.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING
IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH
ERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S/NEAR 80

AND DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER ME TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER SERN NY. LATEST RAP-BASED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ONLY A
MODEST AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL HEATING IS REQUIRED FOR TSTM INITIATION
IN THE VCTY OF THE SFC TROUGH. IN FACT...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA.
EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40 TO 50 KTS OF SWLY EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPE /AVERAGING 1000 TO 1500
J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER/. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ONE OR TWO WW ISSUANCES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 16Z.

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watch up

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-282300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0233.150528T1550Z-150528T2300Z/

MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN
HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX
NORFOLK SUFFOLK WORCESTER
$

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Watches are up

 

ww0233_radar.gif

 SEL3   0-   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 233   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      CONNECTICUT     MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS     MAINE     NEW HAMPSHIRE     NORTHERN NEW JERSEY     SOUTHEAST NEW YORK     NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND     SOUTHERN VERMONT     COASTAL WATERS   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL     700 PM EDT.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW   ENGLAND...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL   BECOME A THREAT AS STORMS ORGANIZE/MATURE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT   EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF   HOULTON MAINE TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW   YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.   &&   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION   VECTOR 24035.   ...GOSS
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