Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Great write-up by BOX. They explained the few scenarios with tremendous detail. All you can really do at this stage is just really nowcast. Models really aren't going to be a big help at this point. We know it's going to be pretty damn unstable, we know lapse rates will be steep, we know shear will increase. It's all about whether activity that develops into an MCS and if so where does it track. Haven't had a good MCS blow through here in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Haven't had a good MCS blow through here in a while. A damaging MCS would be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 1) SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN ACTION TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY OCCUR NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD OCCUR BUT MUCH OF THE REGION MAY END UP DRY ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. (2) MEANWHILE...SOME OF OUR MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY MERGING INTO AN MCS AND DIVING INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES KEEPING HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE WELL AFTER SUNSET. IN THESE TYPE OF ENVIRONMENTS...COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN OFTEN PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS DEPICT TO AS A RESULT OF COOL OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTH INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION...POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EML IN PLACE ALONG WITH IMPROVING 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. MODELS SHOW THE BEST SHOT AT THIS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT IF AN MCS DOES GET GOING IT COULD END UP SWEEPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AS WELL. IN ADDITION...TO THE THREAT FOR POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ALL IN ALL...WE SHOULD AT LEAST BE DEALING WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHETHER OR NOT WE END UP WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THEREAFTER AS A RESULT OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES KEEPING INSTABILITY IN PLACE. Anyone can read that. That leaves any option on table. It's like an =chances seasonal forecast. Someone needs to grab balls and say what they think will happen IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Anyone can read that. That leaves any option on table. It's like an =chances seasonal forecast. Someone needs to grab balls and say what they think will happen IMO Well Blizz....what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Well Blizz....what do you think? I'm not degreed..so even though I play one on TV sometimes..I don't have a say in this. I was hoping Ryan who is so good at forecasting severe would chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I'm not degreed..so even though I play one on TV sometimes..I don't have a say in this. I was hoping Ryan who is so good at forecasting severe would chime in. He's lurking..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I'm not degreed..so even though I play one on TV sometimes..I don't have a say in this. I was hoping Ryan who is so good at forecasting severe would chime in. In Vermont so I haven't looked at much. Heading home in a bit. Not sure there's anything else to add besides what Hayden wrote in that great afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 Morning thunderstorms up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 How far west will things set up? West of Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 New SPC has us enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I'm thinking a 7 10 split here SW CT / Central VT and NH is my call for best storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 that junk south of Burlington better not blanket me with anti-storm clouds in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I'm thinking a 7 10 split here SW CT / Central VT and NH is my call for best storms That never happens...... 73.2/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I am fully expecting meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 In Vermont so I haven't looked at much. Heading home in a bit. Not sure there's anything else to add besides what Hayden wrote in that great afd. exactly why I posted it, there is nothing to add, fishing expedition fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Just saw that could be fun New SPC has us enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 A lot of the morning stuff has everything from n Central Ma on north. Seems like Orh or so south possibly get shut out. Only thing is in NW flow like this , these things can come farther S than modeled . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Counting on another shutout. Brown grass here we come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 A lot of the morning stuff has everything from n Central Ma on north. Seems like Orh or so south possibly get shut out. Only thing is in NW flow like this , these things can come farther S than modeled . The best forcing is off to our north really so that's where the isolated to scattered activity will be developing. If this activity does, however, form into an MCS, there is a higher potential for this complex to actually dive southward into southern New England. MCS's typically like to ride along the strongest instability axis and nose of strongest MLJ...both of which would actually be more favorable in our region. We will be capped for much of the day down this way with the advection of the EML plume so that's why we won't see stuff develop. Also, if an MCS does organize we would have to watch the outflow and attendant cold pool associated with it perhaps sparking activity ahead of it. Case in point is it's impossible to really say what happens b/c it's highly dependent on whether an MCS organizes or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Also, for our area down here, much of the action would likely be occurring after 0z so and outlook really covers everything prior to 01z so with later outlooks, especially 20z we could see adjustments to the risk area depending on how things are evolving. Even the 01z outlook tonight could have reflections given our shot would probably be after 10-11 PMish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Pretty nice sounding from BUF Nice lapse rates and pretty decent shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 ACCAS here in VT this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Thats usually a good sign if you wqnt severe hoping this works out for us ACCAS here in VT this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 First promising run of HRRR and first time it's hinted at more organized MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 ACCAS here in VT this morning Noticed a few down here as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 overcast with light rain. sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Anyone can read that. That leaves any option on table. It's like an =chances seasonal forecast. Someone needs to grab balls and say what they think will happen IMO Did I miss something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 The wind profiles and component of the shear with regards to the front do seem indicative of an MCS evolution later on this afternoon. Looking at the MCS maintenance parameter on SPC meso that seems to confirm this idea. This still just becomes a piece of the puzzle though b/c the next question is where would it track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Noticed a few down here as well..... Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Ditto Mid level instability is there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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