dendrite Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Just had a 48kt gust here at FNT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Lightning is insane with this Nice. Light rain starting here... Appears I will get partially skirted, best stuff is along the Pike and S once east of the river. Plenty of thunder but not particularly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Getting fringed but some decent bangs and in and out of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Meh. Garden Variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 My whole backyard looks like a pond im pretty impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Several CTG about 3-5 miles north,very loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Only moderate rain compared to some of the deluges we've seen but got one of the always fun instantaneous flash/thunder combos that never fails to elicit a holy bleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 That expanded just far enough to the south to get me in on some action including good downpours Doesn't look like the south side of town got much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 On the edge of the slight risk area for tomorrow hoping we can pull something off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Seems like a wild time is in store for many in SNE late tomorrow into the night. Looking forward to it ***POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUNDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY LASTINGWELL INTO THE NIGHT*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 That would be nice....tomorrow should shed some more light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Seems like a wild time is in store for many in SNE late tomorrow into the night. Looking forward to it ***POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUNDAY EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT*** I took a brief look at the 12z GFS and I'm highly intrigued for tomorrow night. I am a little Concerned with the lack of shear though...typically with overnight severe you would like to see strong jet support in addition to EML/quite unstable air but shear may be just enough. Just got home now so going to looking into everything in more detail and probably fire up a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Seems like a wild time is in store for many in SNE late tomorrow into the night. Looking forward to it ***POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUNDAY EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT*** Funny you left out the "isolated" part of that headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Funny you left out the "isolated" part of that headline. Funny you left out the "isolated" part of that headline. Funny you left out the "isolated" part of that headline. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Funny you left out the "isolated" part of that headline. The differences between the 12 Km Nam and 4 KM are huge, 12 K is rocking 4 k is meh like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 ?? The headline reads, "...with isolated strong to severe" not the hyped up version you edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 The differences between the 12 Km Nam and 4 KM are huge, 12 K is rocking 4 k is meh like the GFS WRF ARW and NMM are both fairly aggressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 NAM 4km is pretty meh on the simulated reflectivity products, but you can see it spits out a few rogue supercells in the warm sector. I think the one real plus we have going is that the steepest lapse rates overspead the area after dark, so whatever convection gets going should have the fuel to sustain. Definitely not one of those scenarios where you expect thunder to crap out with the setting sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 NAM 4km is pretty meh on the simulated reflectivity products, but you can see it spits out a few rogue supercells in the warm sector. I think the one real plus we have going is that the steepest lapse rates overspead the area after dark, so whatever convection gets going should have the fuel to sustain. Definitely not one of those scenarios where you expect thunder to crap out with the setting sun. I thought the 12z stuff was interesting in the lakes Region. I didn't really look at much more than sim radar (yes I cheated), but it looked like fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I thought the 12z stuff was interesting in the lakes Region. I didn't really look at much more than sim radar (yes I cheated), but it looked like fun. I mean we have the lapse rates and a trigger. Shear may be borderline, but enough for some organization, and it increases through the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Is this a rare time when setup is better for SNE than NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I mean we have the lapse rates and a trigger. Shear may be borderline, but enough for some organization, and it increases through the evening. yeah the GFS does increase mlvl shear through the night which is definitely a plus...in fact the shear becomes pretty decent. Regarding height falls are they any good tools to really look at height falls to get an indication of how precise heights falls (or rises) are? All I just do is look at 500mb and 700mb maps from weather.cod and just look at the height lines they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Might have to wAtch these cells moving into SNE this evening. Favorable env Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Might have to wAtch these cells moving into SNE this evening. Favorable env i noticed the gravity wave clouds in the Ct Valley too, if those cells can make it before dark might be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Might have to wAtch these cells moving into SNE this evening. Favorable env Would be interesting if a few cells developed and worked into southern VT. 0-6km shear values of 40 knots with decent instability and backed wind fields. helicity a bit elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 yeah the GFS does increase mlvl shear through the night which is definitely a plus...in fact the shear becomes pretty decent. Regarding height falls are they any good tools to really look at height falls to get an indication of how precise heights falls (or rises) are? All I just do is look at 500mb and 700mb maps from weather.cod and just look at the height lines they have. I mean I can look at height change plots in AWIPS, but generally freely available on the web those are hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I mean I can look at height change plots in AWIPS, but generally freely available on the web those are hard to find. damn that sucks. Well I guess just looking at the height contours on weather.cod if you see them sagging south you can assume heights falls and pushing north height rises lol...and if the lines sink south (or north) quickly maybe assume stronger height falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Speaking of thunderstorms look at the LA area right now. Very impressive rainfall. Hard to tell how much is reaching the ground but at 4pm LAX has a moderate thunderstorm in progress. Gotta help the wild fires and add some ground moisture! If we can't get it might as well give it to LAX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 The NAM seems to push the steepest lapse rates off to the east around/shortly after 0z tomorrow night. I just had the chance to look at 12z GFS bufkit for BDL and it's quite intriguing...actually has lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM in the 700-550mb layer near 3z with great cape...even some slight turning evident on the hodo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I think his time in Attleboro ruined his fun for winter storms. He had some tough luck, except for his posts about the 2"of playdoh snapping pine limbs in 2008.i picked the wrong place to live down there. Should have bit the bullet and moved to NW Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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