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Summer 2015 General Thunderstorm Thread


powderfreak

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Seems like a wild time is in store for many in SNE late tomorrow into the night. Looking forward to it

***POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUNDAY

EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING

WELL INTO THE NIGHT***

I took a brief look at the 12z GFS and I'm highly intrigued for tomorrow night. I am a little

Concerned with the lack of shear though...typically with overnight severe you would like to see strong jet support in addition to EML/quite unstable air but shear may be just enough.

Just got home now so going to looking into everything in more detail and probably fire up a thread

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Seems like a wild time is in store for many in SNE late tomorrow into the night. Looking forward to it

***POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUNDAY

EVENING WITH  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING

WELL INTO THE NIGHT***

 

Funny you left out the "isolated" part of that headline.

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NAM 4km is pretty meh on the simulated reflectivity products, but you can see it spits out a few rogue supercells in the warm sector.

 

I think the one real plus we have going is that the steepest lapse rates overspead the area after dark, so whatever convection gets going should have the fuel to sustain. Definitely not one of those scenarios where you expect thunder to crap out with the setting sun.

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NAM 4km is pretty meh on the simulated reflectivity products, but you can see it spits out a few rogue supercells in the warm sector.

I think the one real plus we have going is that the steepest lapse rates overspead the area after dark, so whatever convection gets going should have the fuel to sustain. Definitely not one of those scenarios where you expect thunder to crap out with the setting sun.

I thought the 12z stuff was interesting in the lakes

Region. I didn't really look at much more than sim radar (yes I cheated), but it looked like fun.

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I thought the 12z stuff was interesting in the lakes

Region. I didn't really look at much more than sim radar (yes I cheated), but it looked like fun.

 

I mean we have the lapse rates and a trigger. Shear may be borderline, but enough for some organization, and it increases through the evening.

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I mean we have the lapse rates and a trigger. Shear may be borderline, but enough for some organization, and it increases through the evening.

 

yeah the GFS does increase mlvl shear through the night which is definitely a plus...in fact the shear becomes pretty decent.  

 

Regarding height falls are they any good tools to really look at height falls to get an indication of how precise heights falls (or rises) are?  All I just do is look at 500mb and 700mb maps from weather.cod and just look at the height lines they have.  

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yeah the GFS does increase mlvl shear through the night which is definitely a plus...in fact the shear becomes pretty decent.  

 

Regarding height falls are they any good tools to really look at height falls to get an indication of how precise heights falls (or rises) are?  All I just do is look at 500mb and 700mb maps from weather.cod and just look at the height lines they have.  

 

I mean I can look at height change plots in AWIPS, but generally freely available on the web those are hard to find.

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I mean I can look at height change plots in AWIPS, but generally freely available on the web those are hard to find.

 

damn that sucks.  Well I guess just looking at the height contours on weather.cod if you see them sagging south you can assume heights falls and pushing north height rises lol...and if the lines sink south (or north) quickly maybe assume stronger height falls   

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Speaking of thunderstorms look at the LA area right now.  Very impressive rainfall.  Hard to tell how much is reaching the ground but at 4pm LAX has a moderate thunderstorm in progress.  Gotta help the wild fires and add some ground moisture!  If we can't get it might as well give it to LAX!

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The NAM seems to push the steepest lapse rates off to the east around/shortly after 0z tomorrow night.  I just had the chance to look at 12z GFS bufkit for BDL and it's quite intriguing...actually has lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM in the 700-550mb layer near 3z with great cape...even some slight turning evident on the hodo

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I think his time in Attleboro ruined his fun for winter storms. :( He had some tough luck, except for his posts about the 2"of playdoh snapping pine limbs in 2008.

i picked the wrong place to live down there. Should have bit the bullet and moved to NW Rhode Island.
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