CT Rain Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 It looks like the Saturday threat is falling apart. Not much of an EML to speak of anymore. Monday looks more impressive though. Seems like that's the day to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 It looks like the Saturday threat is falling apart. Not much of an EML to speak of anymore. Monday looks more impressive though. Seems like that's the day to watch. We need this heat ridge to really push into the Ohio Valley area. These things keep getting shunted to our SW with the ridge axis too far west. Maybe Monday works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 It looks like the Saturday threat is falling apart. Not much of an EML to speak of anymore. Monday looks more impressive though. Seems like that's the day to watch. So do we still see storms Fri nite and again late day Saturday? Or nada? NAM AND ECMWF HAVE ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER SAT WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE HEIGHTS RISING THRU THE DAY. THE EC ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL EC SOLUTIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Hmm, a lot of people on travel and vacation at GYX Monday... That's usually a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Hmm, a lot of people on travel and vacation at GYX Monday... That's usually a good sign. lol - and I'm flying solo all day so that is too. Any idea what the Euro has for lapse rates? I see it's quite bullish on CAPE but can't see soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 lol - and I'm flying solo all day so that is too. Any idea what the Euro has for lapse rates? I see it's quite bullish on CAPE but can't see soundings. Tough to tell because it looks like it generates convection early Monday and erases the lapse rates aloft, but it has 6.65-7 C/km before 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 We need this heat ridge to really push into the Ohio Valley area. These things keep getting shunted to our SW with the ridge axis too far west. Maybe Monday works out. bingo... been mentiong this lately ...that the models have been trying to do that now, since may for that matter, but it always seems to come back to the same base-line se canadian trough. it' almost like the nao is more negative than the eofs are reporting, because whether it is positive or negative according to cpc or cdc, the curvi-linear make-up of the flow, as far as what it means for se can/ne u.s. is always behaving like it can't lift in latitude for any reason; that, in its self, smacks of a locked -nao. which, heh ...fits for now. june cheated. the nao was neutral-positive but the flow didn't respond for us. anyway, the cpc takes every member of the nao toward neutral over the next 10 days, and cdc reverses both the epo and nao in the last 10 days of the month. didn't brian remind us the other day that it was july 23rd (2011) that brought the 103 to logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Tough to tell because it looks like it generates convection early Monday and erases the lapse rates aloft, but it has 6.65-7 C/km before 18z. Not bad. Now let's crank up the mid level wind speeds a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Not bad. Now let's crank up the mid level wind speeds a bit more. Poor Ekster is losing it. He needs an EML event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Is there still a general t storm threat Fri nite and/or Saturday pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Is there still a general t storm threat Fri nite and/or Saturday pm? Threat as in it may thunder? Sure. Models are probably going to struggle with it though, since it develops off the convection that will fire later today in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 does anyone have a url that contains the gfsx synotpic charts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Poor Ekster is losing it. He needs an EML event. We have steeper mid level lapse rates in winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 We have steeper mid level lapse rates in winter storms. And his love of golf has ruined those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 And his love of golf has ruined those. I think his time in Attleboro ruined his fun for winter storms. He had some tough luck, except for his posts about the 2"of playdoh snapping pine limbs in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I think his time in Attleboro ruined his fun for winter storms. He had some tough luck, except for his posts about the 2"of playdoh snapping pine limbs in 2008. I've stupidly looked a bit into Monday. Right now it looks fairly interesting across the area. This can only end in disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I've stupidly looked a bit into Monday. Right now it looks fairly interesting across the area. This can only end in disappointment. I will be up at Winni. Hoping for a Moultonboro Mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I will be up at Winni. Hoping for a Moultonboro Mauler. Just topped 70 degrees at 1 PM, and haven't issued a SVR since 7/1. This is how we dew summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I picked the wrong year to not go to the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Lots of EML air to play with next few days. Let's see if we get something to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Just topped 70 degrees at 1 PM, and haven't issued a SVR since 7/1. This is how we dew summer. put up those frost advisories, that would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Lots of EML air to play with next few days. Let's see if we get something to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Rather the storms be Monday then Saturday, Shrine Lobster Bowl Saturday night in Biddeford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I've stupidly looked a bit into Monday. Right now it looks fairly interesting across the area. This can only end in disappointment. Fully expect it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Lots of EML air to play with next few days. Let's see if we get something to pop.High end stuff possible any day Fri nite -mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I swear...one if these EMl's better come with a big outbreak or I wi take everything in sight and throw it out the window. This summer is BS...100% cotton wood BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 The GFS doesn't appear all that bad for Saturday. Has fairly steep lapse rates and given the degree of instability on the GFS the shear would probably be adequate enough. Wish the s/w was just a little further south though. The NAM though is meh upon meh for Saturday. Monday definitely intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 EML is def in place this weekend into Monday. Seems like Sat/Sun will both feature isolated to scattered severe. Monday timing looks a little early for optimum damage. The hope is timing slows down until mid-late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I swear...one if these EMl's better come with a big outbreak or I wi take everything in sight and throw it out the window. This summer is BS...100% cotton wood BS Hi, this is southern New England...where a "big outbreak" means ominous looking scud clouds, and wind gusts barely stronger than a termite fart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 EML is def in place this weekend into Monday. Seems like Sat/Sun will both feature isolated to scattered severe. Monday timing looks a little early for optimum damage. The hope is timing slows down until mid-late afternoon Yeah Monday's timing isn't great... but damn that's a beautiful EML overhead late Sunday. Classic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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