ineedsnow Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Couple big storms just to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 cold front is into the western berks. ALB dew now 56 with a stiff north wind. Best chance of training cells looks just inland from the coast with the seabreeze convergence and interaction with the front from SW CT up into interior SE CT and RI, SE MA.convection has initiated along the East slopes of the Berkshires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Seems to be moving south into n. Ct.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Seems to be moving south into n. Ct.? Drifting SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Hoping for a good downpour here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Interesting WV loop showing the SWave diving SE towards the Delmarva, would indicate most of the heavy rain expected on the south coast Se Ma gets pulled OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Interesting WV loop showing the SWave diving SE towards the Delmarva, would indicate most of the heavy rain expected on the south coast Se Ma gets pulled OTS@MichaelPageWx: Just In: Flash Flood Watch (green) for SE New England thru 9 PM. Localized flooding likely; will impact PM drive. http://t.co/LFtUhyytlcIt's Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 From the Sultan keeping us safe today , to EML and humidity action this weekend. Not boring. @ryanhanrahan: After today's flood threat the next item of interest is potential severe storms on Saturday. There's always something!! #FirstAlertCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 so the nam and gfs have an eml with 3k+ cape on saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 so the nam and gfs have an eml with 3k+ cape on saturday I still think the concern is the better stuff to remain to our SW. I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Can anyone explain the storm motion today??.Almost moving SSW..I've been trying to figure out why that is. And firing in places models had totally dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Can anyone explain the storm motion today??.Almost moving SSW..I've been trying to figure out why that is. And firing in places models had totally dry Steering flow in the mid levels. Models did have some QPF near BDL too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 You gotta love this GOCRAPs model depiction for next week, with a vestige EML heat plume from the MA to NE, while a strong S/W encroaches PA/NY at 8 am ...which would peal back hell at 2pm in western zones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Steering flow in the mid levels. Models did have some QPF near BDL too. I didn't see much support for all those heavy rains west and NW of Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I didn't see much support for all those heavy rains west and NW of Springfield Well that is convection for ya. I mean given the front and forcing..not too surprising. Follow the line and it will probably light up into srn CT and RI-SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Well that is convection for ya. I mean given the front and forcing..not too surprising. Follow the line and it will probably light up into srn CT and RI-SE MA. That almost looks like an INV trough feature extending from the coastal convection off of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 the complete and total shaft here. force field has been in place for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Oh well, thus blows, no convection...now to await the dewpoint drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Oh well, thus blows, no convection...now to await the dewpoint drop Yeah, not sure if anything pops. BOX updated at 3pm though. &&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/... *** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT *** 3 PM UPDATE... AT 3 PM BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED FROM CAPE ANN AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CT. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA. FRONT HAS SLIPPED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND EAST COAST AS LOCAL SEABREEZES DEVELOP. THESE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEW AND STRONGER CONVECTION PER LATEST HRRR/ARW AND NMM. DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DEW PTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS IS YIELDING ML CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG IN THIS SAME AREA. THUS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THIS COUPLED WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN /PWATS ABOUT 1.7" AND DEW PTS U60S TO L70S/...CONVERGENCE FROM LOCAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT /SLOW MOVING STORMS/ TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA...NORTHEAST CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. ARW/NMM/NAM/HRRR/RGEM ALL INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AROUND 20Z/21Z AND THEREAFTER TIL ABOUT 00Z. THUS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN OUR WATCH. THINKING ALL MODELS ARE FOCUSING/KEYING ON CONVERGING SOUTH COAST AND EAST COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHEAST MA YIELDING MULTIPLE QPF BULLSEYE IN THIS AREA. BY 21Z CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND FOCUSED ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY COMMUTE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. BY 00Z- 03Z STORMS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE OFFSHORE. THE HEAVY RAIN COUPLED WITH HIGH DEW PT AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS EVENING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 One little cell popped in Brockton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Looks like the area just west of CT 395 is in for a good drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 One little cell popped in Brockton area.Pouring here from that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 One little cell popped in Brockton area.Pouring here from that cell Wet begets wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Came out of the last 2 days with a shut out. Needed to dry things out a bit as wet as it's been..Will be over a week Friday of no rain, so will be time for some rain and ready for possible EML action this weekend and beyond into next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Best chance is srn CT into PVD-TAN or so I think. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Getting a little excited over Saturday. Even if it doesn't pan out it's always exciting and thrilling tracking a potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Will have to watch to see how the models handle the strength (and of course timing) of the s/w. Strength of the s/w will determine degree of shear aloft, height falls, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Getting a little excited over Saturday. Even if it doesn't pan out it's always exciting and thrilling tracking a potential event.there are at least 2 opportunities for eml advection this weekend into early next week. it will come down to die rolls with s/w's and debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 there are at least 2 opportunities for eml advection this weekend into early next week. it will come down to die rolls with s/w's and debris Looks like a second possibility sometime around next Tuesday or so. I'm hoping one of these possibilities will pan out b/c after that the pattern is completely dominated by ridging with all the jet energy located at and north or the border for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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