Damage In Tolland Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Fail after phail after fail..AWT SO FAR NOT SO GOOD IF YOU ARE A THUNDERSTORM FAN. VISIBILITY SAT AND WEBCAMS CONFIRM STILL A LOT OF LOW LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THEREGION WHICH IS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 50S AND60S ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITHCLEARING SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE FINAL 12Z RUNSAND LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE CAN COME UP WITH. EVEN THE BREAKSTO THE W ARE FILLING IN AS LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITHSOME -SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE W. FINALSTABILITY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY BREAKS SO WILL CONTINUETO WATCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT UNLESS SOMETHINGCHANGES RELATIVELY SOON IT MAY BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Sun is breaking out here.winds calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 So sick of this 5% marginal risk garbage. WTf????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 At least these have looked like garbage from the start. I hate the underachieving days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Another horrible weather day in the record books, AWT. June Phail continues. June is now a spring month, and May is apparently a summer month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 .44 on the day. Just some heavier downpours, nothing too exciting. Had 1.01 Sun-Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I just noticed showers and t-storms are in my zone forecast tonight? Any reason for optimism that something will pop then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 looks like we can see some scattered activity in southern areas this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 yes please whats so great about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 whats so great about that? Um, that is a very potent shortwave trough approaching the region for late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Um, that is a very potent shortwave trough approaching the region for late June. Massive devastation to flora and fauna ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 It's way out there but timing looks decent, nice vigourous shortwave approaching with temps near 80 in this area with dews in the 60's. GFS looks to be generating about 1000 j/kg of surface based CAPE across the region, perhaps a bit more or less in some areas. I'm sure something will probably go wrong but it looked decent on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Lightning!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Lightning!!! I was just wondering that ... if anyone observed thunder in this. None up my way along Massachusetts version of the Mohawk Trail overnight into this morning, though the rain fell heavy enough that the window A.C. unit rattled over the top of it's own hum enough to wake me up on a couple of different times. Looks like according to KTANs rad totals most areas were .4 to 1.5" in striated bands ? I don't know if I believe that, though, and never have about KTANs rad totals. They always seem to be 'under' estimates of what really happened, perhaps a problem with that NWS stations device. Who knows.. Anyway, looks like this event knocked 20 to 30% off deficits, so not a drought killer, but definitely a drought alleviation. So Tuesday: hmm, does have a classic look to it in some regards. I don't like that the mid level wind mechanics appear to wrap up into Ontario; but in the other sense, if those are too strong and nose in too early, the day could mature into a squalline and blast through ho- humly. I suppose it would come down to which model is accurate. Haven't detailed all ... but the 12z oper. GFS is what I'm commenting on wrt the former concept. Otherwise, both the NAM and GFS depicted a bit of a diffused warm front near 12z ... draped or vaguely discerned from NE NYS to Cape Cod near dawn on that day; can visualize associated near dawn convection whisking across the area at that time. That sort of set up is a pretty typical severe day presage scenario for New England, I might add. After that happens and you get a sultry southerly drift as the sun splits through mid morning. High polarity sun-glass-visible orangy towers already pop amid the far western horizon by noon, with even a right turner west of Albany. ...Watch goes up... thread balloons by 30 pages in 20 minutes... Then we count the ways in which something inevitable f-s it all up New England style. But it some rare cases, ...your Monson's and ORH, and Great Barrington's ... things come together and people learn how to fly whether they prefer to or not. I do find it amusing that over at SPC, the have a D1 moderate up near the Dakotas that they conserve through through the Great Lakes (which is the 24 hour teleconnector for New England, btw), and the the next day they summarily, as if perfunctory, smack Wiz's face by not only reducing it to slight, BUT bowing it out as though the entire event collapses... and, not even painting said slight region E of western MA! That's either a bias at headquarters or policy for D3 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 One thing to also think about for Tuesday ...as suggested by the NAM's FRH grid... could be a thermal trough that splits things up a bit. We've also seen that in the past often enough too. The day ends up quite hot/torrid with huge buoyancy surplus; the general UVM established by huge diurnal flux causes a tendency for convergence west of the coastal plain and east of the Berks ...The atmosphere creates a axis, along which the winds tend to back more westerly on the west side, and more south on the east side - almost like our own homemade dry-line. Thunderstorms can and do sometimes erupt along that axis because the day's conditional instability is taken over the top by said convergence. Those thunderstorms then organize and move off the coast and huge CB /anvil constructs are back-lit, cotton white as tropopause rollers by mid afternoon sun. DPs crash. It goes from 88/74 to 91 of 50 where it doesn't rain. Meanwhile, a thus made starving main fropa comes through more of just a wind shift later that evening. You can still generate severe along that "dry line" depression (so to speak..) because the CAPEs would be large - but this is the kind of deal that "steals the show" so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Sunday could be interesting... Some trends to track the low a tad more NW. I've seen that before, when dry slot combines with summer sun to "re" destablize things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 How are we looking for spinners tomorrow night/Sunday AM? NAM says maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Got some rumblers moving through NY now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Early tomorrow might get windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 The 00z NAM shows some backing in the wind fields through early afternoon. I won't post the clown soundings. A little bit overdone for what I saw over Connecticut. Ongoing junk convection is another concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 "Storms" appear to be dying out as they near Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Woke up to a lot of distant thunder, reports coming from NYC say this line means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 This just flashed across the screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Flood reports in NYC. Not sure about these storms for the afternoon. I don't think they'll be as strong as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Flood reports in NYC. Not sure about these storms for the afternoon. I don't think they'll be as strong as forecasted. Do we storm today? Sunny, 82* dp 70* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 RA+ Some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Wow, some nice close strikes here. Loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 .34" in the past 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 .62" and counting. That line that went just SE of here looked pretty potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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