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Summer 2015 General Thunderstorm Thread


powderfreak

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I think you need somewhat thicker skin if what I wrote rustled your jimmies.

 

Fair enough.. but I, and others, do occasionally get the rube feedback.  

 

word!   

 

Yeah, the short version ..it didn't rain.  But the point of all that diatribe, it's interesting that outcomes of not raining seems to be finding different ways of maintaining that tendency.  

 

Or not interesting...I dunno - I think we can all agree, there's a dearth of interesting things to discuss in the weather these days. 

Frankly, I'd hoped for more convective turn out... we are earlish in the 10 day pattern tendency here, so call it 0 and 1. 

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Despite our best efforts to marginalize it, Day 2 slight risk remains on Wiz's doorstep.

 

Problem is...

 

Shear

 

post-44-0-48870000-1434352504_thumb.gif

 

doesn't overlap with instability.

 

post-44-0-09802600-1434352525_thumb.gif

 

Lapse rates are meh, so we're going to need to break out into some sun to help things along. Maybe a Pittsburg special, a la January upslope.

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the 18z NAM/GFS do offer a window for maybe a few stronger t'storms across western MA and western CT.  While we will not see much in the way of instability, mainly due to very poor lapse rates, given the degree of low level moisture in place and potential for a few breaks of sun, this could yield just enough cape.  the wind profile is also a tad interesting as well.  Can't rule out a cell taking on supercell characteristics enhancing potential for perhaps near severe hail if a cell can become strong enough.  

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the 18z NAM/GFS do offer a window for maybe a few stronger t'storms across western MA and western CT. While we will not see much in the way of instability, mainly due to very poor lapse rates, given the degree of low level moisture in place and potential for a few breaks of sun, this could yield just enough cape. the wind profile is also a tad interesting as well. Can't rule out a cell taking on supercell characteristics enhancing potential for perhaps near severe hail if a cell can become strong enough.

Agree with this. We will see if we are able to get some heating.

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Agree with this. We will see if we are able to get some heating.

 

A setup like tomorrow is probably one of the most common setups we see over the course of a summer.  They generally do not produce big events on a widespread level, however, they can and sometimes do produce some localized big storms.  While flash flooding is usually the number one threat microbursts can happen.  

 

I would target perhaps southern Litchfield county down into northern Fairfield county area.  Seems like best potential area for any breaks and some boosts of higher instability.  

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Youve gotten someone excited about a few events this season and so far none have worked out

 

This is by no means going to be a big event and it's only a small general area...very small general area which really has the potential.  While some general t'storms are certainly possible region wide the best target for a strong/marginally severe storm or two is pretty much confined to western MA and western CT.  

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Light winds at the surface..but running this morning they were blowing out of the SW..and davis shows sw winds. But I guess I'm lying

 

I think the point is direction is fairly inconsequential when they are this light. The strongest ASOS in the state is GON at 6 knots.

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