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Summer 2015 General Thunderstorm Thread


powderfreak

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I like the look of that stuff approaching Great Barrington.....maybe it can hold and get into HFD.....

According to velocity, that bow has been putting down some pretty big wombs since before Albany. Several times I thought it was collapsing, maybe microburst add it blew itself out but it's still going strong. ...like the derecho that almost was. ..
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While climo wise the best time of year for severe here is about the second week of June through the 2nd or 3rd weeks of July, if the Nino keeps intensifying, we may see an active second half of summer (July and August) around these parts.  August can be a very fun month for severe only b/c we introduce the potential for nightime severe...as rare as it is if there is a month for here it generally seems to be August.  

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Welp, zippo organization into an MCS took place of all that, after all.  

 

As a result, we barely received enough to wet the ground E of a ASH-HFD line; which, appears to be the impenetrable force-field of thunderstorm death this season, more so than even the normal seemingly inexplicable.

 

Actually, the fact that SNE is in reality an unrecognized peninsula, surrounded on all sides by cryospheric urin, may have something to do with said impenetrable force-field .. There is pretty much one wind direction available to this geography. Otherwise you're waiting a long, long ... long-long, time before something absurd enough can cause a tornado outbreak under 50 F SSTs!

 

But, late yesterday through late last evening's saga is a show I've seen played out almost identically on now three separate occasions over the last month.   Thunderstorms bubble up over the eastern GL, southern Ontario, rake through NY and PA, transitioning from discrete cellular clusters into lines with bow-segments ... entering western MA, and almost precisely upon attempting to cross an Orange-Springfield line, even the anvil fallout vanishes like heroine dust at a attic's convection.

 

The first two times were because of the same sort of scenario related to foresaid peninsula.  The wind component maintained too much southerlies. During the preceding hours, just like we've ad-nauseam observed so many times over southern New England over countless summers in lore, the cold ocean east of NJ and S of Long Island envenomated the otherwise tasty air mass; that source region of thunderstorm cyanide was evidenced by high resolution satellite. Cumulous cloud streets over eastern PA, eastern NY, and western MA, abruptly did not exist east of a HFD, Keene, NH line.  Cu's and failed CB blow-off heads on satellite west, the occasional mare's tail peeling off to the east over clear air over us.  AS though stenciled out with a cosmic-scale exacto-knife, and peeled away, ..nothing east.

 

For future reference, that simple observation is the only forecast variable you need. If it is circa 1 pm, I don't care if SPC has a moderate risk, tornado watch foreplay region over SNE, if you see that on satellite, NOTHING is going to happen.  Almost literally, nothing... Lines or discrete severe come in, cross that line, and immediately within two clicked frames of radar, the top 20 DBZ of intensity/coloration is claimed.   Two or three clicks later (so talking 10 to 15 minutes total) the only thing remains of all that histrionic foreboding excitement is the afterthought of a gust front barely visible on base-reflectivity.   

 

To SPC's credit ... preceding and during all three of these mind-f's, they were unwavering and arrogant in their discussion content and graphics, regarding risk assessments and Watch's.  You're looking at these 60 DBZ hornet sting gems SW of ALB moving headlong toward the MA/NY border, replete with bounded elevated meso and you name it huge hail, and nope... Not crossing that line!

 

Welcome to SNE.  It makes just about any severe event that's ever transpired here that much more of a marvel.  People grouse about our summers as uneventful.  Firstly, severe does happen around these parts from time to time, as limitations in our geographic negatives are over-come; so in reality, the opine really is more about impatience in having to wait for excitement.  ...Buut, in the spirit of commiseration, yesterday and last night did not appear to be subtle intoxication by stablizing influences, ...caused.  The wind direction kept these negatives at bay. In fact, cu streets (if using that method) festooned the heavens through sun-down.  

 

Yet, the convection did the same damn thing; it couldn't cross an approximate HFD-EEN line.  Whatever the cause, the result "reigns" the same. 

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Welp, zippo organization into an MCS took place of all that, after all.  

 

As a result, we barely received enough to wet the ground E of a ASH-HFD line; which, appears to be the impenetrable force-field of thunderstorm death this season, more so than even the normal seemingly inexplicable.

 

Actually, the fact that SNE is in reality an unrecognized peninsula, surrounded on all sides by cryospheric urin, may have something to do with said impenetrable force-field .. There is pretty much one wind direction available to this geography. Otherwise you're waiting a long, long ... long-long, time before something absurd enough can cause a tornado outbreak under 50 F SSTs!

 

But, late yesterday through late last evening's saga is a show I've seen played out almost identically on now three separate occasions over the last month.   Thunderstorms bubble up over the eastern GL, southern Ontario, rake through NY and PA, transitioning from discrete cellular clusters into lines with bow-segments ... entering western MA, and almost precisely upon attempting to cross an Orange-Springfield line, even the anvil fallout vanishes like heroine dust at a attic's convection.

 

The first two times were because of the same sort of scenario related to foresaid peninsula.  The wind component maintained too much southerlies. During the preceding hours, just like was see so many times over southern New England, the cold ocean east of NJ and S of Long Island envenomated the otherwise tasty air mass; that source region of thunderstorm cyanide was evidenced by high resolution satellite. Cumulous cloud streets over eastern PA, eastern NY, and western MA, abruptly did not exist east of a HFD, Keene, NH line.  Cu's and failed CB blow-off heads on satellite west, the occasional mare's tail peeling off to the east over clear air to over us.  

 

For future reference, that simple observation is the only forecast variable you need. If it is circa 1 pm, I don't care if SPC has a moderate risk, tornado watch foreplay region over SNE, if you see that on satellite, NOTHING is going to happen.  Almost literally, nothing... Lines or discrete severe come in, cross that line, and immediately within two clicked frames of radar, the top 20 DBZ of intensity/coloration is claimed.   Two or three clicks late (so talking 10 to 15 minutes total) the only thing remain is the after thought of gust front barely visible on base-reflectivity.   

 

To SPC's credit ... preceding and during all three of these mind-f's, they were unwavering and arrogant in their discussion content and graphics, regarding risk assessments and Watch's.  You're looking at these 60 DBZ hornet sting gems SW of ALB moving headlong toward the MA/NY border, replete with bounded elevated meso and you name it huge hail, and nope... Not crossing that line!

 

Welcome to SNE.  It makes just about any severe event that's ever transpired here that much more of a marvel.  People grouse about our summers as uneventful.  Firstly, severe does happen around these parts from time to time, as limitations in our geographic negatives are over-come; so in reality, the opine really is more about impatience in having to wait for excitement.  ...Buut, in the spirit of commiseration, yesterday and last night did not appear to be subtle intoxication by stablizing influences, ...caused.  The wind direction kept these negatives at bay. In fact, cu streets (if using that method) festooned the heavens through sun-down.  

 

Yet, the convection did the same damn thing; it couldn't cross an approximate HFD-EEN line.  

pretty much climo, severe is rare on the CP. Being on the cP all my life seen my best Tstorms on warm frontal passage off of LI. The rare nw to se lines like 2011 are exciting but ECT is the place Tstorms come to die, no complaints either. All set with damage.

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Welp, zippo organization into an MCS took place of all that, after all.  

 

As a result, we barely received enough to wet the ground E of a ASH-HFD line; which, appears to be the impenetrable force-field of thunderstorm death this season, more so than even the normal seemingly inexplicable.

 

Actually, the fact that SNE is in reality an unrecognized peninsula, surrounded on all sides by cryospheric urin, may have something to do with said impenetrable force-field .. There is pretty much one wind direction available to this geography. Otherwise you're waiting a long, long ... long-long, time before something absurd enough can cause a tornado outbreak under 50 F SSTs!

 

But, late yesterday through late last evening's saga is a show I've seen played out almost identically on now three separate occasions over the last month.   Thunderstorms bubble up over the eastern GL, southern Ontario, rake through NY and PA, transitioning from discrete cellular clusters into lines with bow-segments ... entering western MA, and almost precisely upon attempting to cross an Orange-Springfield line, even the anvil fallout vanishes like heroine dust at a attic's convection.

 

The first two times were because of the same sort of scenario related to foresaid peninsula.  The wind component maintained too much southerlies. During the preceding hours, just like we've ad-nauseam observed so many times over southern New England over countless summers in lore, the cold ocean east of NJ and S of Long Island envenomated the otherwise tasty air mass; that source region of thunderstorm cyanide was evidenced by high resolution satellite. Cumulous cloud streets over eastern PA, eastern NY, and western MA, abruptly did not exist east of a HFD, Keene, NH line.  Cu's and failed CB blow-off heads on satellite west, the occasional mare's tail peeling off to the east over clear air over us.  AS though stenciled out with a cosmic-scale exacto-knife, and peeled away, ..nothing east.

 

For future reference, that simple observation is the only forecast variable you need. If it is circa 1 pm, I don't care if SPC has a moderate risk, tornado watch foreplay region over SNE, if you see that on satellite, NOTHING is going to happen.  Almost literally, nothing... Lines or discrete severe come in, cross that line, and immediately within two clicked frames of radar, the top 20 DBZ of intensity/coloration is claimed.   Two or three clicks later (so talking 10 to 15 minutes total) the only thing remains of all that histrionic foreboding excitement is the afterthought of a gust front barely visible on base-reflectivity.   

 

To SPC's credit ... preceding and during all three of these mind-f's, they were unwavering and arrogant in their discussion content and graphics, regarding risk assessments and Watch's.  You're looking at these 60 DBZ hornet sting gems SW of ALB moving headlong toward the MA/NY border, replete with bounded elevated meso and you name it huge hail, and nope... Not crossing that line!

 

Welcome to SNE.  It makes just about any severe event that's ever transpired here that much more of a marvel.  People grouse about our summers as uneventful.  Firstly, severe does happen around these parts from time to time, as limitations in our geographic negatives are over-come; so in reality, the opine really is more about impatience in having to wait for excitement.  ...Buut, in the spirit of commiseration, yesterday and last night did not appear to be subtle intoxication by stablizing influences, ...caused.  The wind direction kept these negatives at bay. In fact, cu streets (if using that method) festooned the heavens through sun-down.  

 

Yet, the convection did the same damn thing; it couldn't cross an approximate HFD-EEN line.  Whatever the cause, the result "reigns" the same. 

tl;dr version:  didn't rain

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tl;dr version:  didn't rain

 

Liar ... if it was too long and you didn't read, than how did you know to paraphrase with your typical coward-troll lack of any semblance of intelligents.

 

fu* rubes man - got any other cow contributions?

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Liar ... if it was too long and you didn't read, than how did you know to paraphrase with your typical coward-troll lack of any semblance of intelligents.

 

fu* rubes man - got any other cow contributions?

to be fair "tl;dr version" is different from "tl;dr". And I think most of us know Eek posts in jest sometimes. I'll step out of this now and let you two e-brawl.
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