Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 The only thing that will be popping tomorrow are Woody's in the hottub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 The only thing that will be popping tomorrow are Woody's in the hottub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 NAM bufkit tomorrow for IJD isn't really bad looking at all...not as dry as BDL aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Pretty decent looking at Waterbury, CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Going to SW CT to setup after work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 On our way to Norwalk, CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 That's like chasing a 1-3" snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 NAM bufkit tomorrow for IJD isn't really bad looking at all...not as dry as BDL aloft Given to the progressive nature to the pattern overall ... it would not shock me if this gets nosed in a bit farther E come tomorrow - but it might require a later day arrival. One thing I like about tomorrow is that the S component is lower so less contamination ... any CAPE we accrue during the day may linger a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Surprised wiz isn't talking about chasing the Hudson Valley tomorrow given some of the soundings I'm seeing on the NAM/4 km WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Surprised wiz isn't talking about chasing the Hudson Valley tomorrow given some of the soundings I'm seeing on the NAM/4 km WRF. My friend goes back home tomorrow :thumbs down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Given to the progressive nature to the pattern overall ... it would not shock me if this gets nosed in a bit farther E come tomorrow - but it might require a later day arrival. One thing I like about tomorrow is that the S component is lower so less contamination ... any CAPE we accrue during the day may linger a tad. Could be some fun storms tomorrow out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Could be some fun storms tomorrow out west Didn't you say that yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 My friend goes back home tomorrow :thumbs down: 23z sounding at Schenectady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Didn't you say that yesterday Yup. If anything pops today it will become strong very quickly given degree of instability and shear. It's just a low prob Tomorrow activity should be more on the widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Seems the greatest threat on the 12 km NAM and GFS would be along the I-90 corridor in NY while the 4 km NAM is a bit further south. Forcing won't be particularly strong and there is a modest cap present in most areas, which may encourage the potential for discrete storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 marginal, slight, and enhanced are such weird risk categories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 18z NAM would suggest potential for some tornadic supercells in NY tomorrow, just west of SNE and perhaps potential for a strong tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 About as good as it gets pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 18z NAM would suggest potential for some tornadic supercells in NY tomorrow, just west of SNE and perhaps potential for a strong tornado.How about around BTV tomorrow afternoon? Anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 About as good as it gets pretty much Might want to note that the analog on that sounding I posted from sharppy is from Montgomery, AL on the day of the longest tracked tornado in AL's history (5/27/1973). It was a violent tornado that destroyed the Centerville radar (main radar in AL at the time) and caused severe damage in the town of Brent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Seems the greatest threat on the 12 km NAM and GFS would be along the I-90 corridor in NY while the 4 km NAM is a bit further south. Forcing won't be particularly strong and there is a modest cap present in most areas, which may encourage the potential for discrete storms.The local area, particularly in the Hudson Valley in the vicinity of Albany and through the Mohawk Valley, is a bit of a climo mini-tornado alley in the Northeast. That is probably partially driven by the ability of low-level winds to remain backed with locally enhanced helicity. Maybe this belongs in the NY forum, but 30hr 18z NAM forecast hodograph and sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 How about around BTV tomorrow afternoon? Anything no...BTV never gets into the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Looks like the 4 km NAM initiates a few discrete storms along the warm front tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Might want to note that the analog on that sounding I posted from sharppy is from Montgomery, AL on the day of the longest tracked tornado in AL's history (5/27/1973). It was a violent tornado that destroyed the Centerville radar (main radar in AL at the time) and caused severe damage in the town of Brent. oh wow...didn't even see that post until now lol. That sounding you posted is pretty insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 A bit surprised there was no tornado mention in the AFD from Albany given that they were weighing the NAM more than the GFS (due to the GFS likely being too fast with timing) and they also mentioned supercells within the more backed wind fields in E NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 no...BTV never gets into the warm sectorwould Think you want to be along and north of the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 would Think you want to be along and north of the warm front I think BTV is a little bit too far north. not sure the WF even gets there until very late. Areas right around say Albany have a very favorable airmass...steep lapse rates, very high values of cape, strong moisture advection, great shear and especially directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 00z 12 km/4 km NAMs still looking pretty good near/just south of I-90 towards the Hudson Valley tomorrow afternoon evening. Both of them look to have at least one discrete storm tracking through this corridor with relatively strong low level shear/moderate instability present in the 21z-00z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 would Think you want to be along and north of the warm front Yes, but more like 10-15 miles north of the warm front. Beyond that tornadic storms become much less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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