weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Kind of shocked hail probs are only 5%. I guess the WBZ heights are a tad higher than you would like to see for severe hail but latest SPC meso has anywhere from 300-500 J/KG of Cape in the -10C to -30C layer which is pretty damn solid. (Actually even a few pockets of 600 J/KG). With vertical shear on the increase later on that should enhance updraft rotation a bit. I know MCS's aren't notorious for producing hail but they definitely can...especially with some of the parameters in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Tornado threat looks pretty meh which is kind of disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Interesting with the cap.. There's already storms popping in E NY and N Mass. Those clouds could also cause some problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 3:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Interesting with the cap.. There's already storms popping in E NY and N Mass. Those clouds could also cause some problems I wouldn't call those storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 3:47 PM, Guvna said: I wouldn't call those storms...Theyre not supposed to be there with a cap in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 still have ACCAS around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 3:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Theyre not supposed to be there with a cap in place. I wouldn't be overly concerned with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 3:51 PM, Guvna said: I wouldn't be overly concerned with thatThe thick cloud deck is what is somewhat concerning . Might tend to break apart as it moves out of the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 Upgraded to enhanced risk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 3:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said: The thick cloud deck is what is somewhat concerning . Might tend to break apart as it moves out of the Berks Nary a cloud around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 4:02 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Nary a cloud around these parts. Sweet. Lots of clouds here. 75.7/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 4:09 PM, moneypitmike said: Sweet. Lots of clouds here. 75.7/66 87/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 4:12 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: 87/71 77/70 here...I can't imagine adding another 10F with these dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 75/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 4:02 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Nary a cloud around these parts. ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 83/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Look nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 4:13 PM, powderfreak said: 77/70 here...I can't imagine adding another 10F with these dews. The clouds are keeping thins in check here. Even so, still taking a lawn break st the pool. When the dun does come through it really feels warm. Need more if those sunny breaks to reach the ptogged 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 3:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Theyre not supposed to be there with a cap in place. The cap is more south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 79/72 with bright dark blue skies. Not even the smoke that has been in the area. Things look good for some action later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 the micro showers moving through in band are more instability bouncing around above the cap and aren't really associated with instability, diurnally driven. If that cap recedes later/.and or weakens by parcel inclusion ... but I don't even see much of CU field at all. I see there are some initial conditions here but I think this current contamination running over top is more likely to reduce this realization to climo for New England -- which is a big waste of time. We'll see. But later this evening this has more ear-marks of an MCS genesis... Might be interesting night - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Yeah... I remember around 15 years ago when it was overcast like this and got hammered by a storm in the morning at a softball game. Then later in the evening, we had two rounds of storms come through. That was in July....may we have some more fireworks please? Same looking sky.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Can't remember the last time we had an enhanced severe threat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Just went outside at work and it's cloudy as all hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 5:23 PM, BillHarding said: Can't remember the last time we had an enhanced severe threat: A few weeks ao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 5:26 PM, weatherwiz said: Just went outside at work and it's cloudy as all hell Could see this disaster setting up hours ago. Instability axis moves across right at prime heating time. So sun doesn't come back till 3:30-4:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 5:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Could see this disaster setting up hours ago. Instability axis moves across right at prime heating time. So sun doesn't come back till 3:30-4:00 lol you're ridiculous. Big deal there are some clouds around. The storm threat isn't until this evening anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 5:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Could see this disaster setting up hours ago. Instability axis moves across right at prime heating time. So sun doesn't come back till 3:30-4:00 clouds stink for the day. But with regard to heating, we're still seeing lots of upper 80's-90 out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Heating up now sun is out, 74/70°F after an earlier shower, 0.35" since last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 On 7/19/2015 at 5:33 PM, CT Rain said: lol you're ridiculous. Big deal there are some clouds around. The storm threat isn't until this evening anyway.Hope that forecast is right. We'll see how the afternoon plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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