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Summer 2015 General Thunderstorm Thread


powderfreak

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  On 7/14/2015 at 5:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Leading edge of return of high dews this weekend

@ryanhanrahan: One thing we're watching is the threat for thunderstorms late Saturday. Elevated mixed layer plume hangs out overhead Sat PM/Sun AM.

5 day threats have been money this year
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  On 7/14/2015 at 6:24 PM, Ginxy said:

5 day threats have been money this year

 

Meh - so far I think our convection forecasts have been pretty good.

 

With that EML plume overhead I think keeping some convection chances in the forecast for the weekend is a good idea. 

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  On 7/14/2015 at 6:57 PM, CT Rain said:

Meh - so far I think our convection forecasts have been pretty good.

 

With that EML plume overhead I think keeping some convection chances in the forecast for the weekend is a good idea. 

 

NASCAR in NH this weekend. Bank it.

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  On 7/14/2015 at 9:59 PM, Nittany88 said:

Some TORs out in western NY, LSR report of one confirmed too.

 

Looks like I-86 got hit in multiple counties....

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
523 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TORNADO          1 NW WEST ALMOND        42.31N  77.89W
07/14/2015                   ALLEGANY           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE ALONG I-86 AND SURROUNDING AREA WITH MANY TREES
            DOWN. TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
508 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W HOWARD              42.37N  77.54W
07/14/2015                   STEUBEN            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF I-86 AT MILE POST 132.

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  On 7/15/2015 at 10:44 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Mesos peg N Ct into N RI..

So you think nothing except south coast?

No, I said I think that is best shot of heavy rains because that's where the best potential is for slow movers IMO. I also think that is the best area for storms, somewhere in that corridor I mentioned, but areas like Boston and Hartford could get storms too.

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  On 7/15/2015 at 10:46 AM, CoastalWx said:

No, I said I think that is best shot of heavy rains because that's where the best potential is for slow movers IMO. I also think that is the best area for storms, somewhere in that corridor I mentioned, but areas like Boston and Hartford could get storms too.

Meh..seems like another yawner compared to thoughts from yesterday.

 

Hopefully the return of dews Saturday and the EML this weekend/early next week will lead to some more exciting storms

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  On 7/15/2015 at 10:50 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Meh..seems like another yawner compared to thoughts from yesterday.

Hopefully the return of dews Saturday and the EML this weekend/early next week will lead to some more exciting storms

What thoughts? That were always yawners. Better hope the EML isn't cut off to our SW.

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  On 7/15/2015 at 11:02 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I'm not expecting severe this summer..just would be nice to get some storms. Even if the EML goes SW we'll still dew and bang..so there's that

No, we get showers and a few rumbles is more like it. The EC looks like it's best in NY and PA, bits it's close.

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  On 7/15/2015 at 11:51 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

LOL..who can remember that far back for severe

They were both good summers. 97 was and that was during our burgeoning super niño. 98 maybe wasn't as great, but was still good iirc. That was during Nina. 1999 was very very good here locally as well. The 90s and 00s had some great years. That last several years, especially locally, have been a bit tame.

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  On 7/15/2015 at 11:51 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

LOL..who can remember that far back for severe

At any rate..hope you are right

I am not implying this summer to be good. You can always have one example that bucks the trend of niño summers and convection. Just the nature of statistics.

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  On 7/15/2015 at 11:55 AM, CoastalWx said:

They were both good summers. 97 was and that was during our burgeoning super niño. 98 maybe wasn't as great, but was still good iirc. That was during Nina. 1999 was very very good here locally as well. The 90s and 00s had some great years. That last several years, especially locally, have been a bit tame.

Spring of '98 certainly had a few notable events.

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