OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 SPC WRF popping some meaty storms along the warm front by late afternoon. Looks like a fun happy hour for BGM and ALY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 30% contour is pretty hefty for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 8:26 AM, OceanStWx said: 30% contour is pretty hefty for our area. SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif I don't see much hope for anything of note east of the Hudson--am I missing something? (Most likely I am). Better chance of us breaking 80 today than yesterday. 60.3/53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 10:31 AM, moneypitmike said: I don't see much hope for anything of note east of the Hudson--am I missing something? (Most likely I am). Better chance of us breaking 80 today than yesterday. 60.3/53 Best hope? Probably a decaying MCS with gusty outflow and heavy rain. Severe definitely looks confined to NY and points south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 10:34 AM, OceanStWx said: Best hope? Probably a decaying MCS with gusty outflow and heavy rain. Severe definitely looks confined to NY and points south and west. Thanks. SNE and severe wx: an oxymoron. Kind of like SNE droughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 10:39 AM, moneypitmike said: Thanks. SNE and severe wx: an oxymoron. Kind of like SNE droughts. We pretty much moderate all types of weather except snow. Sorry Eek, I brought it up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Most of SNE still in moderate drought..and with this dry pattern(10 days of no rain) it doesn't look to be getting any better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Might be interesting to see how the MCS behaves tonight. Despite the model QPF to the north..it's not a bad look for the usual bias in models being too far north and east. Best chance might be western MA Rt 2 corridor into VT and NH...but good MU CAPES exist over SNE and the LLJ really ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Yeah...NAM hi-res is well north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 2:31 PM, CoastalWx said: Might be interesting to see how the MCS behaves tonight. Despite the model QPF to the north..it's not a bad look for the usual bias in models being too far north and east. Best chance might be western MA Rt 2 corridor into VT and NH...but good MU CAPES exist over SNE and the LLJ really ramps up. Definitely an interesting look across the region later on. Timing is obviously favorable but increasing instability and a llj makes things a bit interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 .19 with the cell that moved through 15 mins ago. Decent downpour with some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 I need that MCS. The well pump is working a little too hard lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Tornado watch likely coming for the warm frontal zone in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 5:28 PM, dendrite said: I need that MCS. The well pump is working a little too hard lately. I have you scheduled to receive 0.05" starting in 17 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 5:33 PM, andyhb said: Tornado watch likely coming for the warm frontal zone in NY. Hoping that all organizes into an MCS and rolls through later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 5:52 PM, eekuasepinniW said: I have you scheduled to receive 0.05" starting in 17 minutes.I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Pike north and 91 west looks best for severe this evening between 7 & 9 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 5:33 PM, andyhb said: Tornado watch likely coming for the warm frontal zone in NY. STW issued instead http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0291.html Guess TW may come later to the east of that watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 6:57 PM, yoda said: STW issued instead http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0291.html Guess TW may come later to the east of that watch You can even deduce that from how the local WFO(s) opted to not include those eastern counties. I think a Tornado Watch is warranted to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Wait a minute, why are the counties in the watch box not highlighted? They can opt out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Tornado Watch until 11 p.m. for much of central and eastern New York State including the mid-Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 with that massive watch out west and huge helic numbers in both uni directional and steering ... come on! can we get a f MCS to evolve outta that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 7:12 PM, Quincy said: Tornado Watch until 11 p.m. for much of central and eastern New York State including the mid-Hudson Valley. I like how those counties who were omitted in the earlier watch are now included. Surrounded by a watch until 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHERN CORTLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHWESTERN CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... EAST CENTRAL CAYUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 329 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SCOTT...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF CORTLAND... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... PREBLE AROUND 340 PM EDT. TULLY AROUND 345 PM EDT. TRUXTON AROUND 350 PM EDT. FABIUS AROUND 355 PM EDT. CUYLER AROUND 400 PM EDT. DE RUYTER AROUND 410 PM EDT. OTSELIC...GEORGETOWN AND ERIEVILLE AROUND 415 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 7:25 PM, Typhoon Tip said: with that massive watch out west and huge helic numbers in both uni directional and steering ... come on! can we get a f MCS to evolve outta that? There is some potential to get some activity east. Decent MU CAPE and LLJ..but best forcing may be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 7:46 PM, CoastalWx said: There is some potential to get some activity east. Decent MU CAPE and LLJ..but best forcing may be north. Don't lapse rates increase slightly overnight too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 7:46 PM, CoastalWx said: There is some potential to get some activity east. Decent MU CAPE and LLJ..but best forcing may be north. true... too bad any LLJ isn't traversing the area, otherwise we'd buck for a right turnin' complex. But yeah, with it seemingly so calm out there... fup it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 7:56 PM, Typhoon Tip said: true... too bad any LLJ isn't traversing the area, otherwise we'd buck for a right turnin' complex. But yeah, with it seemingly so calm out there... fup it It cranks after 3z. Check out NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 7:51 PM, weatherwiz said: Don't lapse rates increase slightly overnight too? Yeah with height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 On 6/12/2015 at 7:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah with height falls. That combo may be able to compensate ugh fly for lack of stronger forcing but it would be benefici if the stronger for in was south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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