powderfreak Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Figured it is time to start this thread. Really think Wiz should be the one to start it, but going to need somewhere to talk about it if these storms fire. First Severe Watch possible. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY ACROSS THE HUDSON AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS THROUGH VT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271550Z - 271715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA. WW POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK N-S CONFLUENCE AXIS/TROUGH ACROSS ERN NY JUST W OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON VALLEYS...WITH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE PRE-EXISTING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ UNDERWAY ALONG THIS AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED TCU/CB ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- A FEW NOW PRODUCING LIGHTNING -- INDICATED IN THE LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING LOOPS. MORNING ALB RAOB AND LATEST AREA WSR-88D VWPS REVEAL WEAKLY VEERING/STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT A STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HAIL RISK...BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... Slight risk today, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Figured it is time to start this thread. Really think Wiz should be the one to start it, but going to need somewhere to talk about it if these storms fire. First Severe Watch possible. Yes, because he really displayed a magic touch with the May 1st thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Yes, because he really displayed a magic touch with the May 1st thread! Haha. You golfing today? Might be an interesting afternoon on the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Haha. You golfing today? Might be an interesting afternoon on the links. I don't think the heavy stuff's gonna come down for quite awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 I don't think the heavy stuff's gonna come down for quite awhile Looks like 2-5pm for VT? The timing looks perfect for max daytime heating. The juice is there... its 86/67 here at MVL which is pretty damn hot and moist for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Classic NNE setup into ern NY it seems. Better chance down here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Haha. You golfing today? Might be an interesting afternoon on the links. Nope, Tuesdays and Thursdays are my golf nights. Wednesdays are usually lawn mowing nights, that may get postponed. I don't think the heavy stuff's gonna come down for quite awhile Whenever we get a bit of weather when golfing someone throws this line out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I bet nobody gets that music playing in the background when the minister gets struck by lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Hammertime in VT and Western Mass today. Could see picnic tables blown off mountain tops..and Pony tails ripped off heads tomorrow probably just Jersey to NW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Hammertime in VT and Western Mass today. Could see picnic tables blown off mountain tops..and Pony tails ripped off heads tomorrow probably just Jersey to NW CT Dew the dew... lots of 70F Td's showing up in VT now. Pretty good moisture pooling just ahead of the boundary in the Champlain Valley and northern VT with 66-72F dews. That stuff in the Adirondacks should really explode when it hits the juice of the Champlain Valley this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 VT is going to get rocked today...storms already forming and on the move and it's only 12:30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Dew the dew... lots of 70F Td's showing up in VT now. Pretty good moisture pooling just ahead of the boundary in the Champlain Valley and northern VT with 66-72F dews. That stuff in the Adirondacks should really explode when it hits the juice of the Champlain Valley this time of year. mesoanalysisTd.png So many folks in good moods enjoying this wx. Def good vibes and deep summer among the populace. Got my first 70 dew today as well. Hit 71 earlier. Now 69.Enjoy the storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Another MD from SPC...sneaking towards CT and the Berks. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...THE CATSKILLS/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AREA SSWWD ACROSS WRN NJ/ERN PA INTO MD/NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271621Z - 271715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK TO INCREASE AS STORMS ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM ERN PA SWD INTO NWRN VA ATTM...AHEAD OF ONGOING/WEAK PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND INVOF AN ASSOCIATED/NNE-SSW SURFACE TROUGH. HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ HAS YIELDED AN AXIS OF 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE INCREASE -- BOTH IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- WHERE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- AND THUS GREATER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL -- FARTHER S MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT SEVERE RISK AS FAR S AS THE DC METRO AREA. ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 So many folks in good moods enjoying this wx. Def good vibes and deep summer among the populace. Got my first 70 dew today as well. Hit 71 earlier. Now 69. Enjoy the storms Only reason this is acceptable is because of the threat of storms, haha. It does have that feel of storms though...hazy sun, hot, very humid, breezy out of the south like something is approaching. Lets just avoid acres of straightline blow down on the mountain though. No more natural mowing down of prime ski terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Only reason this is acceptable is because of the threat of storms, haha. It does have that feel of storms though...hazy sun, hot, very humid, breezy out of the south like something is approaching. Lets just avoid acres of straightline blow down on the mountain though. No more natural mowing down of prime ski terrain.If you could send or direct a blow down here in Tolland this summer, I would be in eternal debt to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Is it Fall yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I would be happy here with a few tenths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I'm impressed by those lines of storms...congrats to those who get rocked...another boring day on the CP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Meh, some thunder and a brief period of moderate rain. Looks like good storms further south heading towards Killington area and Rutland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 A few warnings are up in Grafton Co. The avils have overspread me here over the past hour. Down to 82/66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 A few warnings are up in Grafton Co. The avils have overspread me here over the past hour. Down to 82/66. Lakes region winning...at least nrn part. Dendrite downpour en-route? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 A few warnings are up in Grafton Co. The avils have overspread me here over the past hour. Down to 82/66. Enjoy the rains. We'll enjoy the drought pains continuing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Lakes region winning...at least nrn part. Dendrite downpour en-route?Not looking great so far...I'm going to need some redevelopment on the southern side of that line segment around I89. Hopefully I get something...even a tenth would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I bet nobody gets that music playing in the background when the minister gets struck by lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The 10 Commandments...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The 10 Commandments...LOL.I imdb'd that factCecile B DeMille Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Dark and rumbly here. Looks like I'll miss the heaviest. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 First warning of the season here Wheeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 .11 Looked promising, but ended up meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Major screwjob setting up here. Bad omen for convective season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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