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May 24-27 severe potential


Indystorm

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If this is still the same tornado, it's been on the ground almost 40 minutes

It's clearly not though. The old couplet occluded and a new one wrapped up further east (though it seems to be occluding as well now). Still a very healthy looking storm though. Curious to see if can keep producing. 

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This was taken near Plains a few minutes ago. Between this and how wide the actual GTG was on velocity, I think it's safe to call it a wedge.

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Taken from the 10:07 PM CDT SVS from KDDC:

 

LARGE WEDGE TORNADO  

REPORTED 1 MILE NORTH OF PLAINS CITY BY AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1024 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...  
SOUTH CENTRAL GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1024 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MISSLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15  
MPH.
 
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
MONTEZUMA AROUND 1100 PM CDT.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015  
 
KSC069-119-250400-  
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-150525T0400Z/  
MEADE KS-GRAY KS-  
1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTH  
CENTRAL MEADE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAY COUNTIES...  
 
AT 1042 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF  
MISSLER...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY
.  
 

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL MEADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1058 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF MISSLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

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Big time circulation on that cell again.

PDS:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  NORTH CENTRAL MEADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...  SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT* AT 1058 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF MISSLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
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The "large and extremely dangerous" wording isn't worth much at night really... But it is SW KS (which is as flat as it gets) so there isn't anything blocking the view, so it seems pretty likely given the circulation on it too.

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Seems to be tracking more North...think it has decent chance to miss Dodge City to the North.

With the supercell moving fairly slower than the line west of it, the line may merge and end the tornadic threat by the time it gets close to Dodge City.

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IR temps on this storm are up near -60*C (black pixel on Dvorak curve, which starts at -63*C, is showing with overshooting tops), which is a fair bit colder than the Equilibrium Levels the HRRR is placing around the storm. I'm thinking something as modeled currently instability-wise is being underestimated.

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