Stebo Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Ratings for tor last night. As suspected Plains not strong... Tho of course it didn't hit much. https://twitter.com/nwsdodgecity/status/603005851591290880 Yeah I agree the ratings for those tornadoes are more due to the fact they didn't hit much, especially the first tornado near Plains. The radar representation for that tornado was very impressive and with the close proximity to Dodge City, you were getting a very low level slice of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 1 dead in Milam Co. TX from a tornado. This was the embedded supercell west of Cameron that had that really strong signature. Tomorrow is screaming a potential mesoscale/OFB setup in TX/OK with potentially extreme instability in place and all of the MCS activity today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Yeah, the same CAPE reservoir feeding into the current storms will come north tomorrow. Not regretting the no-call with chasing today, but there's a good chance I'll try to play a boundary tomorrow. Lots of models are spitting out 5000-6000 J/kg of CAPE, so anything that goes up on a boundary could be volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I drive by that stadium all the time-it's on North Lamar Blvd and near the bottom of a hill, off Shoal Creek. That explains the torrent of water flowing by. There are lots of businesses and homes just past that stadium, damage must be very severe up there. That's House Park. North of downtown and west of the University of Texas From Google Map - here is that area dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Mexico tornado video, its right at dawn and its not what I was expecting anyways looks like a rope type tornado.....you see it best about 2 secs into the video and again around 1:17 in when the power flashes start up. http://www.info7.mx/a/noticia/579660 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 1.97" in an hour at KIAH (Houston-Intercontinental) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jameswx Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Mexico tornado video, its right at dawn and its not what I was expecting anyways looks like a rope type tornado.....you see it best about 2 secs into the video and again around 1:17 in when the power flashes start up. http://www.info7.mx/a/noticia/579660 I thought the same thing, but I doubt it looked like that during its entire life cycle. Based on the damage pics I've seen it looks like it was a significant tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I thought the same thing, but I doubt it looked like that during its entire life cycle. Based on the damage pics I've seen it looks like it was a significant tornado. Rope tornadoes can be significant too, see Elie 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I thought the same thing, but I doubt it looked like that during its entire life cycle. Based on the damage pics I've seen it looks like it was a significant tornado. I've heard that this tornado was rated as an F4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Yeah, the same CAPE reservoir feeding into the current storms will come north tomorrow. Not regretting the no-call with chasing today, but there's a good chance I'll try to play a boundary tomorrow. Lots of models are spitting out 5000-6000 J/kg of CAPE, so anything that goes up on a boundary could be volatile. You didn't miss much today. I saw some rotation and got some good lightning shots but everything was beyond rain wrapped. Got one rain free circulation near La Grange but that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I've heard that this tornado was rated as an F4. rated F4 already? By who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I've heard that this tornado was rated as an F4. Seen conflicting reports, most indicating F3 or F4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Seen conflicting reports, most indicating F3 or F4. Damage does not look like that from an F4. I would say that the damage is from a low end F3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Damage does not look like that from an F4. I would say that the damage is from a low end F3. What's more annoying is the picture of the 2011 Tuscaloosa tornado being spread around as the Ciudad Acuna one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Rope tornadoes can be significant too, see Elie 2007. Don't forget Union City of May 24, 1973 during the rope stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Yeah I agree the ratings for those tornadoes are more due to the fact they didn't hit much, especially the first tornado near Plains. The radar representation for that tornado was very impressive and with the close proximity to Dodge City, you were getting a very low level slice of the storm. We went and checked out the area it hit.. there really wasn't all that much sign of it considering. The irrigation thingies flipped were the main signal .. and those don't need too strong of winds to turn over. It certainly ended up missing most things it could have hit, but it did cross a line of power poles and they were all still upright save a few that were slightly leaning. I'm not damage rating expert but I didn't have the impression it was super strong upon seeing it today first hand. LCLs were really low in the storm environment... even prior there was a massive wall cloud basically scraping the ground for a considerable period. I dunno.. if it had hit the town likely a strong tor but doubt it was like a 4+ or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 This is insane-there are actually more storms firing up just west of us and headed for the south side of Austin at least. Just heard a rumble of thunder outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Mexico tornado video, its right at dawn and its not what I was expecting anyways looks like a rope type tornado.....you see it best about 2 secs into the video and again around 1:17 in when the power flashes start up. http://www.info7.mx/a/noticia/579660 I checked out the radar data and it did seem like the storm cycled just as it crossed the Rio Grande... so it might be possible that the meso was occluding when the tornado hit the town (thus the tornado entering a rope stage). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX1052 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHWEST HARRIS COUNTY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT * AT 1047 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.* THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR AREAS FROM SUGAR LAND...MEADOWS PLACE...SPRING BRANCH...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE TO MEMORIAL.* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... NORTHEASTERN SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...MISSION BEND...TOWN WEST...AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...SPRING BRANCH WEST...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...MEMORIAL PARK...GREATER HEIGHTS... GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...EASTERN ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS... SOUTHEASTERN ADDICKS PARK TEN...MEADOWS PLACE...HEDWIG VILLAGE... HILSHIRE VILLAGE AND FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THEWARNED AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Looking back, the storm in Milam county was over road 206, where the fatality occurred in a mobile home, at 357 PM CDT with the velocity signature overhead. The TOR was issued at 359 PM CDT. Additionally, the Laughlin AFB radar showed a small, but intense velocity signature with the supercell over Ciudad Acuna between 603 and 613 AM CDT. Reports are saying the tornado struck around 610 AM. The tornado clipped the SW portion of the city in the Altos de Santa Teresa section, and fortunately lifted with several miles of city streets in front of it. As bad as it was, had it continued, it would likely have been a catastrophic toll for the people there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The Ciudad Acuña signature wasn't all that impressive from DRX, which had a pretty good look at it. Debris never got above about 4000 ft. The official rating may be F4, but I doubt it was ever stronger than EF1 or EF2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Hard to say if it was a legit F4, but it look like there were a few pockets of very intense damage. Completely leveled masonry structures and thrown/mangled vehicles, including buses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Very impressive damage. That last picture of what was previously a maroon red car is amazing. Anyways, tomorrow looks somewhat interesting. Model soundings at 00Z depict backed SFC winds across SW/C OK/ NC TX, and good turning to about 600mb. With 20-30kts of flow from 925mb and up, with an increase at about 250mb to ~50-55kts (which is meh, and will probably lead to some venting issues) Juxtaposed by strong to extreme instability of 3000-5000J/KG MUCAPE. All models indicate about 40kts of 500mb bulk shear over this area as well, which is sufficient to produce supercells. Main problem will be initiation (if it even occurs, and where it will occur) and then overabundant moisture, with PWAT's of 1.3-1.5in which will lead to outflow issues and storm clusters forming and being the dominate storm mode probably more so over discrete supercells, which even then would probably be HP in nature due to overall lack of Upper-level winds, and abundant moisture. But with the directional wind profile and strong instability, albeit with pretty marginal wind speeds, tornadoes are definitely a good possibility imo with any semi-discrete convection. 05Z HRRR looks good for North Central TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 That damage is way too severe for a ef1 or ef2. Leveling concrete and masonry structures is much more difficult than wood frame construction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I think it also needs to be stressed that venting winds/large amounts of low level moisture haven't been the only things leading to the dominance of HP storms this year. Since there has been a lack of an EML, the mid levels have been more moist than usual. This naturally leads to a more saturated column and increasingly water loaded storms, leading to a rather rapid HP transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I think it also needs to be stressed that venting winds/large amounts of low level moisture haven't been the only things leading to the dominance of HP storms this year. Since there has been a lack of an EML, the mid levels have been more moist than usual. This naturally leads to a more saturated column and increasingly water loaded storms, leading to a rather rapid HP transition. Almost all three of the ingredients for HP-type supercells have materialized for every legitimate big day this year (if I'm remembering correctly) hasn't prevented this May from producing tons of tornadoes though. But in any case, usually just having a lack of venting and a very to extremely moist boundary layer leads to a mess. But when you throw in the lack of a dry slot at 700+mb like we typically see it's just created a messy storm mode every time and an abundance of convection toward evening, along with the issues experienced from morning convection due to lack of 1. Strong upper-level winds to steer them out of the main threat area, and 2. Lack of really any EML to prevent morning convection from sticking around too long in the main threat area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 That damage is way too severe for a ef1 or ef2. Leveling concrete and masonry structures is much more difficult than wood frame construction Yes. For this degree damage it would take a strong F3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 HRRR predicts discrete cells but the NAM also says that they will have PW values of 1.3+ and I'm fairly tired of chasing HP storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Pretty stout sounding on the HRRR for Fort Worth later this evening. 5000+ J/Kg of cape & VBV issues don't appear to be too big of a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 CU agitation has initiated S of Lawton, OK. Lets see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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