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Great Southern Plains Flood of 2015


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HGX just issued their first ever Flash Flood Emergency.

CF5zZM4UsAAD9ZV.png

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1047 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE

FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR AREAS FROM SUGAR

LAND...MEADOWS PLACE...SPRING BRANCH...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE TO

MEMORIAL.

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These last few weeks of May have been historic (literally) over a very large area. And I honestly don't remember the last time (if it's ever happened) that we've have this many flash flood emergencies for major metropolitan areas. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Austin, and now Houston, and all that is just the major flash floods and doesn't even account for the historic river flooding that has occurred, and will continue occur. Meanwhile the next coming week or so doesn't see much of any reprieve from the heavy rainfall. This weekend especially looks potent, and most of the local WFO's have been consistent in that.

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Houston is in big trouble, the storms are back building and the flash flood emergency now covers a bigger area. In the text it says radar estimates 6-10 inches have fallen; the pictures being uploaded on twitter are insane.

the warning states that rain gauges have measured it actually..

* AT 1235 AM CDT...RAIN GAUGES HAVE MEASURED BETWEN 6 AND 10 INCHES

IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING

ARE OCCURRING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF HARRIS AND FORT

BEND COUNTIES.

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Austin for the most part is returning to normal today. I drove up the stretch of N Lamar that took on water yesterday (between 9th and 12th Streets or so, outside of here is elevated and where the water likely flowed from) and the businesses there are definitely out of commission for a while, but cleanup crews have cleared much of the debris. The roads are also passable, but there is still some debris/caked mud in spots. House Park (the stadium shown in many photos with quickly flowing water) looks to have had at least 4-5 feet of water in it and is a mess with sticks, mud and debris everywhere. Fences have also been thrown around everywhere. The homes that are on the side streets from the low section of Lamar which flooded also look to have been damaged pretty bad, but I didn't drive down them. 

 

Downtown looks just about normal, there is still some mud and debris around in spots that flooded. Driving down Congress Ave, there doesn't look to be any major damage besides some tree/property damage from the severe storms on Saturday, and mud/debris near creeks that overflowed. 

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and it begins again... 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

857 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

 

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

  TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

 

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

    

* AT 855 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 

  PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTH FORT 

  WORTH. FLASH FLOOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. 

 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

  FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...GRAND PRAIRIE...MANSFIELD...EULESS...

  BEDFORD...GRAPEVINE...HALTOM CITY...KELLER...COPPELL...HURST...

  SOUTHLAKE...WATAUGA...COLLEYVILLE...BENBROOK...SAGINAW...WHITE

  SETTLEMENT...FOREST HILL...RICHLAND HILLS AND RIVER OAKS.

 

on a different note, when your cell phone goes off with the EBS tone, it scares the living crap out of ya

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Another night of heavy rain

 

mcd0137.gif

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0137
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1124 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX/WESTERN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 270323Z - 270923Z

SUMMARY...A BROAD EAST-WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED WHICH
HAS BEEN UNLEASHING HEAVY RAINFALL UPON NORTH-CENTRAL TX. FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY OVER SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE --
WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS -- ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX,
FED BY 25-30 KT INFLOW AT 850 HPA OVERRIDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/FORMING COLD POOL, MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG,
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ~1.4". SOME BACKBUILDING HAS
BEEN SEEN TOWARDS A PAIR OF MESOSCALE WAVES ON THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX. CELL MOTION HAS BEEN ROUGHLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS, CLOSE IN MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION TO THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS
PATTERN IN THE REGION.

WHILE THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A SIGNAL FOR LOCAL 2-4" OF RAIN
IN THIS REGION, THE CURRENT LOCATION AND BREADTH OF THE
THUNDERSTORM BAND HAS EXCEEDED ALL MODEL EXPECTATIONS.
RECENT RAP
FORECASTS INDICATE STEADY STATE 850 HPA INFLOW OVERNIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. CELL TRAINING/MERGERS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN HERE. WHILE HOURLY RAIN RATES HAVE RECENTLY NEARED
3" PER RADAR ESTIMATES, ONCE THE COMPLEX STARTS TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE, RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2" CAN BE GENERALLY EXPECTED. MUCH
OF THIS AREA JUST RAINED HEAVILY YESTERDAY, SO SOILS ARE
SATURATED. FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION.

ROTH

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Dam failure imminent on Padera Lake, NW of Midlothian! #Flood wave will impact Cottonwood Creek, Soap Creek, & Mountain Creek. #dfwwx #txwx

 

http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/local/2015/05/27/midlothian-dam-expected-to-break-at-any-moment/28000473/

 

More information. Top of the dam is eroding and they're working to stave it off by draining it from the bottom.

 

edit: this one says it's not likely to break now http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2015/05/27/concerns-of-dam-breaking-in-midlothian/

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The Lower 48 states reduced drought considerably since the May 5 Drought Monitor update. The Lower 48 has 11.44% less drought than on May 5th. (Three weeks ago.). The Southern Central Area (as desgnated by the U.S. Drought Monitor) has 19.69% less drought than three weeks ago.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?south

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.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS

SE TX. PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED OVER 21 INCHES OF RAIN

DURING MAY. THE ASOS AT KSGR (SUGAR LAND) IS NOW AT 20.40 INCHES

OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS 15.90 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND IS

THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD. IT IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD

FOR ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE CO-OP STATION AT HOUSTON WESTBURY

HAS RECORDED 15.88 INCHES DURING MAY WHICH IS THE HIGHEST TOTAL

EVER RECORDED IN MAY (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1948). THE CO-OP STATION AT

RICHMOND (RECORDS BEGAN IN 1946) RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAY ON

RECORD WITH 14.93 INCHES (NOT INCL YESTERDAYS

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