gosaints Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Along with the blob.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Along with the blob.... Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Got a little ways to go yet before the Blob is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Slight decrease in region 1+2, which is down to 2.3C. Slight decrease in region 3.4 as well, which is down to 2.8C. Other regions unchanged from last week. I think it's pretty safe to call the 3.1C reading a few weeks ago the peak for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Can El Nino crash this fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Region 1+2 is prone to fluctuations. It's also prone to model error. This is a big daddy Nino so don't expect it to just go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Region 1+2 is prone to fluctuations. It's also prone to model error. This is a big daddy Nino so don't expect it to just go away. I figured it would take longer, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Regions 1+2 and 3.4 both up by 0.1C compared to last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 nice Gonna take a miracle to not have strong Nino conditions through meteorological winter. For some comparison, the 97-98 event remained strong into March, and right now we are a bit higher in region 3.4 than this time in December 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 OND came in at 2.3, tying the mark from 1997. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 OND came in at 2.3, tying the mark from 1997. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Monthly data that goes to 3 significant figures says we're at 2.25... 0.01 short of tying 97-98. The westerlies in the west tropical Pacific is just ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Warm pool is shifting west towards the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 CanSIPS model showing a drastic cooling over the central basin by June, than a full blown La Nina by fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 CanSIPS model showing a drastic cooling over the central basin by June, than a full blown La Nina by fall. Big time Nina, just in time for winter. Will be interesting to see how this develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 calls for a rapid decline certainly busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 calls for a rapid decline certainly busted Was pretty obvious by December that this thing wasn't going to decline as soon as some of the other recent ones like 1998. Could easily still see a rapid decline, just later in the year. Every LR ensemble (ECMWF, NMME, CANSIPS, JAMSTEC, etc.) consensus suggests we're at least neg-neutral by summer. CFSv2 actually has shown a restrengthening of the Nino after the summer in some solutions, which seems highly unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Here's the NMME The forecasts for the decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 CFS cracks me up... it's so lonely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 FWIW, region 3.4 was still 2.1C on the most recent weekly update, so by the numbers, strong Nino status was maintained all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Just a little update. Nino continues to weaken and finally out of strong territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Just a little update. Nino continues to weaken and finally out of strong territory. Yeah cold water about to hit the surface. Probably start a la Niña watch thread soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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