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el Nino Watch


Rainman

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calls for a rapid decline certainly busted

 

Was pretty obvious by December that this thing wasn't going to decline as soon as some of the other recent ones like 1998. Could easily still see a rapid decline, just later in the year.

 

Every LR ensemble (ECMWF, NMME, CANSIPS, JAMSTEC, etc.) consensus suggests we're at least neg-neutral by summer. CFSv2 actually has shown a restrengthening of the Nino after the summer in some solutions, which seems highly unlikely to me.

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