andyhb Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 00z December 1 CanSIPS is out http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=342 Should add that the CanSIPS also has the piggyback Nina already becoming very strong by August. Still a +PDO though, although in a much weakened state with the characteristic warm tongue of a -PDO developing east of Japan. There would undoubtedly be some very interesting developments with such a robust flip like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Man talk about a crash from a monumental El Nino, that would be wild I'd we went that deep into a La Nina, just 10 months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Here's the animation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Here's the animation. Wow. That is nuts. That La Niña modeled there looks like a monster and similar in size to this El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 If the last Niño to Niña cycle, 2010-2011, has any predictive value, the next 2 severe seasons could be quite robust across the country. Considering the +PDO, however, wonder if the real fireworks will hold off til spring 2017, rather than a big late spring 2016 similar to May - June 2010. I think the Niño collapse at least gives some optimism for later this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Two years since 1950 have flipped from a strong Nino right into a strong Nina...72-73 and 87-88. Though in 87-88, that Nino peaked much earlier than this one. In case anyone is wondering about 97-98, that flipped from strong Nino to moderate Nina by late summer/early Fall of 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Why does this happen exactly? Does a large amount of heat get dispersed into the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 That would be a monumental/historical la Niña - basically spanning the whole basin! Nuts. Something like 1973-1974 on the table...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 If the last Niño to Niña cycle, 2010-2011, has any predictive value, the next 2 severe seasons could be quite robust across the country. Considering the +PDO, however, wonder if the real fireworks will hold off til spring 2017, rather than a big late spring 2016 similar to May - June 2010. I think the Niño collapse at least gives some optimism for later this spring. Yeah I'm definitely eyeballing 2017 for a hell of a severe season. 2016, on the other hand, should at least continue the trend over the past 2 years of becoming more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The warm pool effectively exhausts itself as an increase in evaporation and a reduction in ocean surface heat uptake occurs, blasting this excess net heat to the atmosphere. Once the pool is exhausted, the trades resume as cold water upwells to take its place, usually strongly so. That CANSIPS Nina is probably overdone with the moderate-strong +PDO being shown there. It's pretty typical to see a Nina after such a strong Nino, but there's little guarantee on strength. The 82-83 Super Nino only resulted in a weak follow-on Nina with a neutral to weakly positive PDO. However, as a counter to my point, there were a pair of studies last year that show modeled increases in both extreme Ninos and Ninas (the latter of which was helped by the extreme Nino amplitude). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The 82-83 Super Nino only resulted in a weak follow-on Nina with a neutral to weakly positive PDO. Using the JISAO and NCDC data, that +PDO was actually quite strong in 83-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The warm pool effectively exhausts itself as an increase in evaporation and a reduction in ocean surface heat uptake occurs, blasting this excess net heat to the atmosphere. Once the pool is exhausted, the trades resume as cold water upwells to take its place, usually strongly so. That CANSIPS Nina is probably overdone with the moderate-strong +PDO being shown there. It's pretty typical to see a Nina after such a strong Nino, but there's little guarantee on strength. The 82-83 Super Nino only resulted in a weak follow-on Nina with a neutral to weakly positive PDO. However, as a counter to my point, there were a pair of studies last year that show modeled increases in both extreme Ninos and Ninas (the latter of which was helped by the extreme Nino amplitude). Regarding the bolded: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 1877-78 and 1888-89 were also very strong Ninos and both of them were coming out of a weaker +ENSO event the year before, like this one. The former wasn't immediately followed by a Nina, but 1879-80 was a Nina. The latter was followed by a moderate Nina in 1889-90. Notably 1880 and 1890 both had some very deadly severe events (4/18/1880 and 3/27/1890 in particular). Along with all four of the Ninas listed above, this raises the "something nasty may be on the horizon" thought. Getting this data here: https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/663021244237918208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Regarding the bolded: That's fine, but her data doesn't really support the conclusion. "7th strongest" and "8th strongest" were moderate Ninas (keep in mind the fairly small sample size). A Nina is a good bet -- the strength isn't -- if you're going off analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Using the JISAO and NCDC data, that +PDO was actually quite strong in 83-84. Yeah, you're right. It spiked in summer '83 before dropping back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 That's fine, but her data doesn't really support the conclusion. "7th strongest" and "8th strongest" were moderate Ninas (keep in mind the fairly small sample size). A Nina is a good bet -- the strength isn't -- if you're going off analogs. Absolutely. I meant to post that image in support of your statement that there doesn't seem to be a correlation in intensity. I should've said more than I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 ONI for SON cracked 2.0, so we can now "officially" call this a super Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Should mention that the November SST CA forecast also has a mod/strong Nina developing for next winter (still a weak +PDO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 We are officially in the strongest Nino since records began in 1950. If we flip to strong Niña, look out for a wicked severe season next spring. To all you hoping for another cold snowy winter, look out west, they are getting clobbered. This is a whole different animal from 2013-2014, 2014-2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 We are officially in the strongest Nino since records began in 1950. If we flip to strong Niña, look out for a wicked severe season next spring. To all you hoping for another cold snowy winter, look out west, they are getting clobbered. This is a whole different animal from 2013-2014, 2014-2015. We just need a little cold air and a little blocking to help eject systems out of the southwest and keep them from tracking too far north. If we get that, we could end up with a gradient pattern. Hey, at least it doesn't look cold and suppressed. It's been an interesting start to the winter. Can't wait to see what happens later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 We are officially in the strongest Nino since records began in 1950. If we flip to strong Niña, look out for a wicked severe season next spring. To all you hoping for another cold snowy winter, look out west, they are getting clobbered. This is a whole different animal from 2013-2014, 2014-2015. You just beat me. Here's a post from Don S about what various December values would mean for the ONI number for OND. Assuming no revisions to the October-November monthly anomalies (ERSSTv4), one would need the following figures to achieve various OND tri-monthly figures: 2.1°C: 1.91°C 2.2°C: 2.21°C 2.26°C: 2.39°C (would tie the 1997-98 tri-monthly peak) 2.27°C: 2.42°C (would break the 1997-98 record tri-monthly peak) 2.3°: 2.51°C It appears increasingly likely that the 2015-16 El Niño event will challenge or perhaps even break the 1997-98 tri-monthly peak with a tri-monthly peak coming out somewhere beween 2.2°C and 2.3°C. Monday's weekly data should provide some good insight into the current state of the ongoing El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 You just beat me. Here's a post from Don S about what various December values would mean for the ONI number for OND. Yup, Don s is the man. I'm not sure what to think going forward, their is some strat warming occurring as well. To be honest, and I've said this several times, we have come off two very active historic winters, similar to the mid 70s, so a 79-80 repeat is definetely a reliable analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Region 3.4 dipped to 2.9 on the weekly numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 We are officially in the strongest Nino since records began in 1950. If we flip to strong Niña, look out for a wicked severe season next spring. To all you hoping for another cold snowy winter, look out west, they are getting clobbered. This is a whole different animal from 2013-2014, 2014-2015. What index did we just beat then? Nino 3.4 value? If El Nino is so strong, then why was the November SOI value only -5.3 ? (Australian BOM web site) Did the atmosphere just simply not catch up to the raging Nino in the ocean? thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 What index did we just beat then? Nino 3.4 value? If El Nino is so strong, then why was the November SOI value only -5.3 ? (Australian BOM web site) Did the atmosphere just simply not catch up to the raging Nino in the ocean? thoughts? The atmosphere has caught up... The current pattern we're in is pretty typical of a strong/super Nino December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The atmosphere has caught up... The current pattern we're in is pretty typical of a strong/super Nino December. At least for the first 10 days or so. The next 10+ days will be more Nina-like with the Aleutian ridge/western trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Warmest Autumn on record in USA. http://news.weathernationtv.com/2015/12/09/noaa-warmest-autumn-record-continental-u-s/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Looks like the NMME also heading in the direction of a Nina for next winter (SSTA forecast and probabilistic forecast through July). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I'd prefer neutral, but whatcha gonna do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Equatorial water in cooling mode now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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