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el Nino Watch


Rainman

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You could have made this post in 1982. AGW isn't going to push the jet north 1,500 miles, but El Nino will.

If you want to claim his winter might be a half a degree Celsius higher than 1982 because of AGW, I won't argue that.

 

There will probably be some good studies that come out of this attempting to filter out the AGW and ENSO temperature signals to 2015 and 2016.

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Record snowpack has had me in heaven the last two winters, so since I already know thats not happening a 3rd straight winter, Im all in on this jet configuration. May have less nuisance snows but more big snowstorms, which is supposedly a dream for many on here. Buckle up.

 

Nothing beats it MSF! Hop on board! ^_^

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Nothing beats it MSF! Hop on board! ^_^

I am. Im already well aware that REGARDLESS of the type of winter we have, theres no way we will have the type of record snowpack we had the last two winters. It defied all odds to happen once in '13-14, but that was in an all-out record winter. That it happened again last year (thanks to the tundra unloading the 2nd half of winter) was a double wow. El Nino is too volatile of an event to let something settle in for months. Roller coaster is likely, and we have a juiced jet, go for the gold.

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No doubt. As much fun as it's been to track to this point, I'm gonna enjoy watching it collapse. I'm ready for the Nina.

 

Yeah me too.  We go from Nino watch right into Nina watch...not very unusual though as a number of the bigger Ninos violently swung the other way after their demise.

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No doubt. As much fun as it's been to track to this point, I'm gonna enjoy watching it collapse. I'm ready for the Nina.

We had a chart up recently that had shown that any equatorial anomaly under +0.8 gave a near equal chance for cold or warm for the midwest.

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Here's the CFS prog for 3.4...only one model but the pretty rapid tanking is supported by other models.  However, we are so strong right now that it wouldn't be that surprising to technically have strong Nino conditions for most or all of winter even though it will be in decline.

 

 

post-14-0-81597500-1447707688_thumb.gif

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I have a question for you guys. Obviously El Nino is strong. Let's say it weakens from January to March. People are talking about the idea that it gets weaker. Now, does that mean that the subtropical jet (in North America and the eastern Pacifc) is still stronger than average through March -and- does it mean the US gradually gets cooler, relative to average? Just wondering. Is this a feature that happened in other moderate to strong El Ninos? If El Nino water temps get weaker, does it mean the mid-ocean convection still enhances the speed of the subtropical jet?

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Upwelling KW beginning its trek east over the past month. Also appears to be strengthening.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Would have to think the chances for a Nina in 16-17 are increasing, given this and previous climo with strong Nino events.

Do you or anyone know what causes a Nino to collapse one way or the other? As in west-to-east or east-to-west. CFS is the only major model that has it collapsing from west to east... which I suspect is the reason why it's a torch throughout. I dunno what to look for for a sign of either collapse.

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Do you or anyone know what causes a Nino to collapse one way or the other? As in west-to-east or east-to-west. CFS is the only major model that has it collapsing from west to east... which I suspect is the reason why it's a torch throughout. I dunno what to look for for a sign of either collapse.

 

Usually that sub surface anomaly will reach the surface in the east and then spread westward with intensifying trades.

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Also... do we know what the subsurface looked like at this time in 97?

 

XOVY+null+psdef+.jpg?T=Nov+1997

 

As you can see 1997 had a much stronger sub-surface warm pool in the east and a significantly stronger cold pool in the west, this doesn't mean the current one won't strengthen further, though. In addition, years that had a much weaker upwelling wave around this time went on to produce significant La Ninas.

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There's been some big changes in the subsurface. I recommend you right click the images and open them in a new tab so you can click between the tabs to compare to see the changes.

 

8CgLi4b.png

v3dXiSZ.png

 

These are the changes I see. I don't know the technical terms, but there's a temp gradient that's flattening out to a horizontal gradient. The cold subsurface waters seem to be attempting to "hide under" the warm waters that are closer to the surface. It also seems to be putting pressure on the warm subsurface blob in the east. Most of it refuses to peak at the surface, but some has... most notably at 120W.

rfkFj4h.png

 

kiKIQR6.gif

 

I dunno what this all means... I'm sure someone does and can expand on it.

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Upwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave (OKW) aka Equatorial Kelvin Wave (EKW)

 

The best way to look at anomalies is really via the change in the thermocline. That warm/cool couplet is a result of the thermocline being located further up in the water column than normal and the water above it being above normal.

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