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el Nino Watch


Rainman

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So what's the good word on El Nino this year? I moved here to Akron from Florida a few years ago and the winters here are brutal. I know it's not gonna be much but will El Nino bring some warmer weather and less snow to Ohio? I'd even settle for a degree or two warmer lol. I'll take what I can get.

I don't know about El Nino, but if it makes you feel better the last two winters were unusually harsh. It gets cold in the winter but the last two were pretty historic.

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I like this chart...it doesn't necessarily tell you precisely how strong each event is/was, but gives you an idea of how the warm anomalies are distributed in the central/eastern Pacific.

 

 

attachicon.gifenso.png

 

I too like this chart. The one item which sticks out to me is the amount of potential energy sitting out there in the Pacific and how its still increasing. Once again even here we are heading into unknown territories wrt a basin wide flat line....

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The trans-Nino index (TNI) also quantifies the anomaly distribution like this.  97-98 had a ridiculously high TNI (meaning more "east-based")

 

October values for...

 

2015: 0.077

 

1997:  2.944

 

Here's the linear correlation between TNI and precip.  It's fairly classic el Nino, especially over the west coast.  But with this year's TNI so low, I do wonder if the precip anomalies will migrate further north in California compared to what this image shows.




			
		
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The trans-Nino index (TNI) also quantifies the anomaly distribution like this.  97-98 had a ridiculously high TNI (meaning more "east-based")

 

October values for...

 

2015: 0.077

 

1997:  2.944

 

Here's the linear correlation between TNI and precip.  It's fairly classic el Nino, especially over the west coast.  But with this year's TNI so low, I do wonder if the precip anomalies will migrate further north in California compared to what this image shows.

attachicon.gif140.90.75.204.311.19.58.25.gif

 

Not sure how useful TNI will be in this case, given the outlier nature of the Nino and the (very) warm eastern Pacific. Nino 1+2 was still 2.1C on the last weekly reading (a number I expect will bottom soon and start rising again as the latest big EKW pushes further east), so this is quite warm -- in fact Nino 1+2 was the second warmest on record for October. This is something that is easy to forget with 3, 3.4 and 4 blowtorching.

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Impressive weekly readings on the latest update.  Region 4 is up to +1.7C, a record high reading for the data set, and region 3.4 is up to +2.8C.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

That 3.4 reading of 2.8C ties 1997's highest weekly reading. It's possible we break that this month.

 

The 1.7C reading in Nino 4 is insane.

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Not sure how useful TNI will be in this case, given the outlier nature of the Nino and the (very) warm eastern Pacific. Nino 1+2 was still 2.1C on the last weekly reading (a number I expect will bottom soon and start rising again as the latest big EKW pushes further east), so this is quite warm -- in fact Nino 1+2 was the second warmest on record for October. This is something that is easy to forget with 3, 3.4 and 4 blowtorching.

 

I wondered about it msyelf.  The apparent flaw in TNI would be that it is basically only a difference product and doesn't account for actual magnitude of warmth.

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Not sure how useful TNI will be in this case, given the outlier nature of the Nino and the (very) warm eastern Pacific. Nino 1+2 was still 2.1C on the last weekly reading (a number I expect will bottom soon and start rising again as the latest big EKW pushes further east), so this is quite warm -- in fact Nino 1+2 was the second warmest on record for October. This is something that is easy to forget with 3, 3.4 and 4 blowtorching.

Some in other subforums are hellbent on that not happening. They are in for a rude awakening when it does though.

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It's likely nino 4 has peaked.

One thing I have to ask is when OHC is typically expected to peak???

0JL3EIY.jpg

It's currently at its peak for the event.

I figured by now it would be well on its way downward.

The reason I say enso 4 has peaked is because the way it's warmed is not because the warm pool is moving West.

It's still moving East

But a perfect split in the trades sent warmer surface water West while East of the dateline weaker trades have continued.

The warm pool has kept moving East.

The absolute warmth with that huge pool of 30-31C is wicked.

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Funny...my supply of dope has increased thanks to climate change.

Likewise.

Your area will likely see that for a while.

But the heat being released is incredible right now.

It's spectacular.

UMTTZlI.jpg

There will be chances for some major winter storms.

But this winter I see the arctic being cut off for the most part.

Going to be more cold rains and foggy nights I see.

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Likewise.

Your area will likely see that for a while.

But the heat being released is incredible right now.

It's spectacular.

UMTTZlI.jpg

There will be chances for some major winter storms.

But this winter I see the arctic being cut off for the most part.

Going to be more cold rains and foggy nights I see.

 

I've been thinking more along the lines of ice.

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Likewise.

Your area will likely see that for a while.

But the heat being released is incredible right now.

It's spectacular.

UMTTZlI.jpg

There will be chances for some major winter storms.

But this winter I see the arctic being cut off for the most part.

Going to be more cold rains and foggy nights I see.

You could have made this post in 1982. AGW isn't going to push the jet north 1,500 miles, but El Nino will.

If you want to claim his winter might be a half a degree Celsius higher than 1982 because of AGW, I won't argue that.

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You could have made this post in 1982. AGW isn't going to push the jet north 1,500 miles, but El Nino will.

If you want to claim his winter might be a half a degree Celsius higher than 1982 because of AGW, I won't argue that.

Record snowpack has had me in heaven the last two winters, so since I already know thats not happening a 3rd straight winter, Im all in on this jet configuration. May have less nuisance snows but more big snowstorms, which is supposedly a dream for many on here. Buckle up.

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