csnavywx Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 He's the king of denier weenies. That's excellent. Can we start using that as a coined term? DW = Denier Weenie. All credit to ALEK of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 It's amazing how many DW's that are still calling/hoping for a Modoki at this point. The subsurface warm pool has already crawled east of 140W and it's only August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 He's still got "Modoki" in his head even though that boat sunk 2 months ago. To be fair, I haven't read where he or Joe D are calling for a Modoki. Both have mentioned central based using model guidance only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It isn't central based either. By the way, in the literature, CP and Modoki are used interchangeably. So, whether they realize it or not, that's exactly what they're calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 So, let's unzip this a bit more. WHY is this not a CP Nino and how has this Nino's progression differed? Perhaps the best way is to look at the progression of the thermocline at this stage of the game. After all, one of the main features of an El Nino is warm water flowing eastward near the equator, displacing colder water and flattening the thermocline. Generally speaking, the stronger the Nino, the flatter the thermocline is and further east that flattening progresses. The stronger ones also typically start earlier. Here's a comparison of three Ninos at this date -- 09-10 (CP Nino), 97-98 (Classic Nino), and 14-15: I don't have one for 82-83, but it's in the same ballpark as 97-98, just somewhat slower to develop and slightly weaker. Well, let's assume I've been a bit hasty here. After all, 09-10 didn't develop until later. For argument's sake, let's "cheat" a bit and compare it to 09-10 near/at its peak: Nope, still not close. Thermocline progression this year is already considerably further east than even 09-10 at its peak. The bottom line is, this Nino has much more in common with 82-83 and 97-98 at this stage than any CP Nino, period. This includes zonal wind anomalies. Could this change? Sure, the sample size for strong Ninos is quite small and there have been some changes due to climate change that might contribute to different behavior (expansion of the S. Hemisphere Hadley cells comes to mind), but at this point, the difference between this Nino and a CP Nino is huge. It's going to take a hell of a lot to change that. THIS is why I'm skeptical of all of these forecasts calling for snow and cold in the east based on a CP Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Weekly SSTAs Nino 1+2... 2.0C (+0.3C from last week) Nino 3...... 2.3C (+0.1C from last week) Nino 3.4.... 2.2C (+0.1C from last week) Nino 4...... 1.1C (unchanged from last week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Weekly SSTAs Nino 1+2... 2.0C (+0.3C from last week) Nino 3...... 2.3C (+0.1C from last week) Nino 3.4.... 2.2C (+0.1C from last week) Nino 4...... 1.1C (unchanged from last week) Nice to see the Nino 1+2 warming again, it did dip a bit recently. 0.3C is a decent weekly jump to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Csnavywx is such a badass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Csnavywx is such a badass Been right all the way, some are trying to wish this into something other than a basin wide El Nino because cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Been right all the way, some are trying to wish this into something other than a basin wide El Nino because cold and snow. I'm not necessarily rooting for it but it would be kinda funny if it ends up cold/snowy even with a basin wide Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Been right all the way, some are trying to wish this into something other than a basin wide El Nino because cold and snow. I don't think anyone is really saying it isn't basin wide. The argument is more where the warmest anomalies will end up. In 1997 1+2 was near 4C this week while it's only 2C now. However, 3.4 is higher now than 1997. No matter the outcome, it's interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I'm not necessarily rooting for it but it would be kinda funny if it ends up cold/snowy even with a basin wide Nino. I'd be shocked if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I'm not necessarily rooting for it but it would be kinda funny if it ends up cold/snowy even with a basin wide Nino.I honestly won't be surprised no matter what happens this winter. Some of the more old school "nature signs" are certainly pointing towards another hard winter, but strong nino climo would suggest otherwise. We are diving into the unknown (which we really to an extent do every Fall). I'd be cautious to bank on anything, & I do think that those expecting an all out torch have just as good a chance at being disappointed as those thinking another severe winter is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Here it is... the questions everyone (the weather geeks) have been wondering... what did the Nino forcing look like this past month? How did it change from the month before? How does it compare to top analog years? (negative anomalies mean August 2015 saw more negative VP200, which indicates greater forcing) The sum of August 2015: The sum of July 2015: My interpretation is that the forcing de-amplified, but the location of forcing stayed similar. August 2015 minus July 2015 August 2015 minus August 1997 August 2015 minus August 1982 August 2015 minus August 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 200mb VP for July was strongly enhanced for the first half of the month by a record-smashing MJO event. Since that time, El Nino has continued to develop and is now actively suppressing MJO activity (it's been in the RMM "circle of death" for well over a month now). Since then, ENSO has been dominant in forcing that signal. So, it's not really an apples to apples comparison and it's tough to disentangle the two during July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Upon working on the relationship between El Nino intensity and Great Lakes ice content, I came across a few things. Some may not be surprising at all, but it fits with the topic of this thread. In the strongest 10 El Nino DJF periods, ice extent across the Great Lakes was generally below average (in 8/10 seasons). In four of the seasons, it was significantly below average. Interestingly enough, two seasons (1972-1973 and 2002-2003) featured above average ice coverage, with 2003 featuring significantly above average ice. In both of those seasons, El Nino was weakening into the winter months. Generally speaking, stronger strong El Ninos during the winter favor above average temperatures from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Strong La Ninas have been slightly below average in temperatures across the Ohio Valley, but significantly below average across the Upper Great Lakes and points NW of Chicago. The below charts show surface temperature anomalies for DJF within the strongest 10 El Ninos (first graphic) and the strongest 10 La Ninas (second graphic): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Csnavywx, you should comment on some of the recent posts on the El Niño superthread on the main board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Csnavywx, you should comment on some of the recent posts on the El Niño superthread on the main board. You mean the mentioning of 02-03, not sure why people are bringing up a weak-mod nino when we are basically off the charts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 You mean the mentioning of 02-03, not sure why people are bringing up a weak-mod nino when we are basically off the charts here. Yup exactly. And the anomalies becoming more west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Yup exactly. And the anomalies becoming more west based. Yeah which they aren't. Like I said earlier, people will do anything to spin the wheel toward cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Yeah which they aren't. Like I said earlier, people will do anything to spin the wheel toward cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Yeah which they aren't. Like I said earlier, people will do anything to spin the wheel toward cold and snow. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Odds are pointing to a sucky winter. This warm pacific blob could throw a wrench into things, but who knows. I'm betting on another 31F DJF, that's my standard benchmark for crappy winters. DJF 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2011-2012 were all 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I can see why people are saying the anomalies are moving west, but I think we need to wait a good while to determine if it's really a trend west. Whenever that animation JoMo pulled up is shown, you can see the warmest anomies are spreading west, but it seems like only the last couple frames really show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 These graphs contradict that map a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Yes, the subsurface advance of the warm pool is key as it will determine how far east the strongest anomalies lie. I'm going to start posting in the main thread, but I need a chunk of time to make a big post and deal with the inevitable bashing that will result. By the ridiculous standard being set in some posts in other threads on this forum, the only event that could qualify as an east-based event is 97/98. 1982-83's Super Nino had its strongest anomalies right near where they are (and are forecasted to set up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 These graphs contradict that map a bit: nino12.pngnino34.png Tropicaltdibits has been way off relative to the official readings. Nino 1+2 is actually at 2C, that graph shows otherwise. 3.4 is at 2.2C, again, that map shows otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Odds are pointing to a sucky winter. This warm pacific blob could throw a wrench into things, but who knows. I'm betting on another 31F DJF, that's my standard benchmark for crappy winters. DJF 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2011-2012 were all 31F. I just have a feeling it won't be as mild as the above mentioned winters. Of course remember, mild doesn't mean we WONT have heavy snow, and cold doesn't mean we WILL have heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 I just have a feeling it won't be as mild as the above mentioned winters. Of course remember, mild doesn't mean we WONT have heavy snow, and cold doesn't mean we WILL have heavy snow. Really don't see what you're seeing. All signs point to a real clunker winter. Expecting anything else may be setting yourself up for disappointment imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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