A-L-E-K Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Josh is already getting desperate for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Josh is already getting desperate for snow summer is nice and fun but bring on active fall and winter weather... even if it is a nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Josh is already getting desperate for snowActually no. I absolutely love Fall. Thinking ahead and speculating about what kind of weather winter may bring? Absolutely. Especially since severe weather does little for me (ill take pleasant summer days over a severe outbreak all day any day). Wanting to pass up Fall and all it's awesomeness? Hell no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Again let me make this clear...I am NO nino expert . An earlier than normal peak is something they have been kind of harping on in the new England forum. All I know is peak aside, there have been many differences being pointed out between 1982, 1997, & 2015. I don't think it will be that early of a peak though. We are already having a WWB right now and the models still have this going up at least until October. If it is an early peak it might be early by a month or two at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 it won't be an early peak at all, all signs point to a textbook strong nino get ready to torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 I don't think it will be that early of a peak though. We are already having a WWB right now and the models still have this going up at least until October. If it is an early peak it might be early by a month or two at most.As I said, I'm only repeating what I've read. They have been discussing winter 2015-16 in the new England forum since april, no joke lol.Assuming this winter won't be like the last 2, I will be making a trip to the UP for the first time since 2013. If the pattern of recent years, past strong ninos, & a juiced subtropical jet are any indication, this may actually be a dream winter for many on here (those that don't like endless winter like me, bo, dmc, etc). By that I mean there won't be endless months of tundra and no grass but there should be several potent winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 As I said, I'm only repeating what I've read. They have been discussing winter 2015-16 in the new England forum since april, no joke lol. Assuming this winter won't be like the last 2, I will be making a trip to the UP for the first time since 2013. If the pattern of recent years, past strong ninos, & a juiced subtropical jet are any indication, this may actually be a dream winter for many on here (those that don't like endless winter like me, bo, dmc, etc). By that I mean there won't be endless months of tundra and no grass but there should be several potent winter storms. Yeah over there you have a slanted viewpoint though because everyone is is looking through snow covered glasses so of course they are going to try and slant it in a direction that would be favorable for a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Yeah over there you have a slaneed viewpoint though because everyone is is looking through snow covered glasses so of course they are going to try and slant it in a direction that would be favorable for a snowy winter. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 it won't be an early peak at all, all signs point to a textbook strong nino get ready to torch I'm prepped for a 31F DJF. KLAN was 31 in 1997-1998, 1982-1983 & 2011-2012. 2011-2012 wasn't a NINO, but it was a sh-t winter and all three of those hit exactly at 31F. Thankfully my Ontario hotspot was roughly 16F during 2011-2012. Gonna burn some diesel getting up there 3-4 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Nino 4 and 3.4 are crashing hard... Nino 4 is at or close to the lowest value since late Winter. Nino 1+2 is hanging on and slowly warming. CFS is starting to respond accordingly... but it's still about 0.2C too warm at the start. Region 3.4: http://i.imgur.com/Q3diXLN.gif Region 4: http://i.imgur.com/WRq3C7g.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 ...looking forward to Josh's pics of his grauple-dusted car hood this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Winter 2014-2015.... low pressure systems will probably move through central Minnesota and bomb Winnipeg, while we get wraparound puddle freezing, graupel dusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 ...looking forward to Josh's pics of his grauple-dusted car hood this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted August 1, 2015 Author Share Posted August 1, 2015 This el nino is expected to peak earlier than normal, & yes earlier than 82 or 97 The models certainly suggest that. A lot of them, the CFS in particular, can be overly sensitive to initial conditions. For example, it'll take what we have right now and just evolve it through the fall allowing it to peak without fully capturing the fact that another impressive kelvin wave has taken shape. Now I'm not sure how well it has captured this particular Kelvin wave, but in my experience, the CFS will give us a new look once this significant warming episode actually begins taking shape. Just my $0.02. Or maybe just $0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 The models certainly suggest that. A lot of them, the CFS in particular, can be overly sensitive to initial conditions. For example, it'll take what we have right now and just evolve it through the fall allowing it to peak without fully capturing the fact that another impressive kelvin wave has taken shape. Now I'm not sure how well it has captured this particular Kelvin wave, but in my experience, the CFS will give us a new look once this significant warming episode actually begins taking shape. Just my $0.02. Or maybe just $0.01 I posted on the last post of the 2nd page that CFS is starting to trend toward a cooler 3.4 and 4... finally starting to capture the recent trends as the 18z update today says Nino 4 is at +0.832. CFS is still about 0.2-0.3C too warm with the initial conditions though... and it says all regions, except for 1+2, are in the process of warming. In reality, it's been exactly opposite of that over the past day thanks to the Kelvin wave. I wonder what CFS's output is gonna look like when it finally figures out what's going on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 ...looking forward to Josh's pics of his grauple-dusted car hood this winter! Lol. No worries there will be snow up here. I'd be more worried in columbus. 1877-78 and 1972-73 had above normal snow here despite being strong ninos. I'm already prepared for a milder winter and "worst winter ever" posts from those who already post that in years that don't have 150%+ annual snowfall and white ground by November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Lol. No worries there will be snow up here. I'd be more worried in columbus. 1877-78 and 1972-73 had above normal snow here despite being strong ninos. I'm already prepared for a milder winter and "worst winter ever" posts from those who already post that in years that don't have 150%+ annual snowfall and white ground by November 1 Emotion aside and pragmatically speaking, the milder the winter the more $business$ I accomplish. As I get older love of money beats love of snow. Maybe once my 3 kids are out of college that will reverse again, but for now just give me one or two exciting events to chase among a mild winter, (which can be indicative of a super nino winter), and you guys can have the relentless runs of brutal cold and snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Emotion aside and pragmatically speaking, the milder the winter the more $business$ I accomplish. As I get older love of money beats love of snow. Maybe once my 3 kids are out of college that will reverse again, but for now just give me one or two exciting events to chase among a mild winter, (which can be indicative of a super nino winter), and you guys can have the relentless runs of brutal cold and snow cover. I changed jobs last year mid winter...my old job was a 7 minute commute, my new job is a 45 minute commute, 1-2 hours in a snowstorm. So even I have, let's say, preferences as to when the snow will fall . But I will never outgrow the love of winter. The last two winters have been insane, & I have loved it. The last decade has been remarkable. But 2015-16, while I feel will have its share of fun & potent winter storms, will not be one of endless cold and snowcover. Just not the mo of a strong nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 I posted on the last post of the 2nd page that CFS is starting to trend toward a cooler 3.4 and 4... finally starting to capture the recent trends as the 18z update today says Nino 4 is at +0.832. CFS is still about 0.2-0.3C too warm with the initial conditions though... and it says all regions, except for 1+2, are in the process of warming. In reality, it's been exactly opposite of that over the past day thanks to the Kelvin wave. I wonder what CFS's output is gonna look like when it finally figures out what's going on now. It's easy to overplay daily anomaly readings into the model being "off". They use an initial condition period 10 days long to avoid the problem of variability in daily data. I have little doubt that the 3C peak is too high, but even the PDF corrected versions (which often over-correct on major events) peak at or over 2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 It's easy to overplay daily anomaly readings into the model being "off". They use an initial condition period 10 days long to avoid the problem of variability in daily data. I have little doubt that the 3C peak is too high, but even the PDF corrected versions (which often over-correct on major events) peak at or over 2C. Ah, okay, thanks for that bit. CFS's most recent ensemble members have really trended toward a cooler region 3, 3.4, and 4. No real trend with Nino 1+2. The last CFS update has stepped up the torch for this winter too... FWIW. Curious to see what happens with the next update. Also excited to see the output for FMA... hoping to see a -PDO or Nina start to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Ah, okay, thanks for that bit. CFS's most recent ensemble members have really trended toward a cooler region 3, 3.4, and 4. No real trend with Nino 1+2. The last CFS update has stepped up the torch for this winter too... FWIW. Curious to see what happens with the next update. Also excited to see the output for FMA... hoping to see a -PDO or Nina start to emerge. the very latest runs of cfs have actually backed off on 2m temps. its just an oscillating mess anyway, fun to look at, nothing more. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015080100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=221 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 the very latest runs of cfs have actually backed off on 2m temps. its just an oscillating mess anyway, fun to look at, nothing more. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015080100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=221 Not sure if you meant to link the CANSIPS... I think that's a completely different model. I was looking at this, BTW, when I made that claim. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ Old: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me2Mon.html New: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 the very latest runs of cfs have actually backed off on 2m temps. its just an oscillating mess anyway, fun to look at, nothing more. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015080100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=221 Backed off in Canada. Same in Michigan if not warmer. Like you said though, the CFS is noisy. Any model that initializes off the extended truncated GFS is going to have issues ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I was previously watching a Saturday summary by JB about a week ago, apparently he is still all in on another cold winter for the eastern 2/3s of the US. He continued to say the blob is shrinking off the west coast, and ENSO regions 1.2 were cooling. His main 3 analogs for the upcoming winter were... 1957-1958 2002-2003 2009-2010 I don't get it. The dude refuses to forecast a mild winter, which is looking increasingly likely as the weeks pass and El Niño rocks on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 He's still got "Modoki" in his head even though that boat sunk 2 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I was previously watching a Saturday summary by JB about a week ago, apparently he is still all in on another cold winter for the eastern 2/3s of the US. He continued to say the blob is shrinking off the west coast, and ENSO regions 1.2 were cooling. His main 3 analogs for the upcoming winter were... 1957-1958 2002-2003 2009-2010 I don't get it. The dude refuses to forecast a mild winter, which is looking increasingly likely as the weeks pass and El Niño rocks on. JB is a complete goof and a failure to meteorologists everywhere... He still rocks the "climate change is an agenda" agenda too.Sent from my GT-N8010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 He's the king of denier weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Yeah ENSO region 1.2 has been cooling, but still above normal. Having those analogs is a bit crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I think region 1+2 has warmed up a bit since the last weekly update. Still waaaaaay down from where it was. Wonder what value we'll see on Monday. Nino 3.4 has reached 2C for the first time on Tropicaltidbits. We saw it was too cool with last week's update because it was only showing ~1.8C weekly average... so this should bode well for the second consecutive week in Super Nino status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Yeah JB is such a weenie. I'm interested to see what happens for summer of 16' will we transition to a strong Nina similar to 2010? If so, summer of 16 could be brutally hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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