el Nino Watch

[ClicheVortex2014]

FWIW, I read something in the New England subforum about the JAMSTEC having a warm bias at 2m. 

That's plausible. It did well at this time last year and in July 2011... but was too "warm" for 2012-13 and 2013-14.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I've been checking these charts fairly often...not every day, so I can't say that this is the highest it's been but it's the highest I remember seeing.  You know you've got something crazy about to unfold when even the lowest members have a peak over 2.5.

 

Some individual members have Nino 3.4 reaching +4C in November.  That's just insane. 

 

Also... not surprisingly... CFS has been trending toward a weaker region 1+2 dip in October and a warmer recovery in the following months. Nino 1+2 has been very reluctant to CFS's idea of cooling. CFS still insists on an imminent region 1+2 SST crash.

 

The 10-day change in the thermocline is striking-- much more warming coming east #ElNino #climate

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/622425772347621378

[andyhb]

7˚ positive anomalies showing up in the latest sub-surface update via TAO.

 

[michsnowfreak]

FWIW, I read something in the New England subforum about the JAMSTEC having a warm bias at 2m. 

Ive been reading the New England forum as well. Based on all the speculation Ive read, what I gather is that it looks like this could really be a super nino, however, with several of the other factors involved, a better winter than 1982-83 or 1997-98 is probably in the offing locally. I highly doubt we are buried in deep snow and tundra like the last 2 winters, but it appears a lot of factors may be ripe for serious extremes (brutal cold shots interspersed with very mild periods) as well as strong storms (juiced subtropical jet). Not to mention an early peak of El Nino. There are several things very different than they were in 1997 or 1982, and while I personally know very little about enso patterns, all you have to do is look at the weak, mod, & strong nino winters and how they all are so different from one another, to know that while strong ninos still favor the winter to overall be milder than normal, it isnt as simple as saying "look at 1997-98 & 1982-83" (which were very different from each other even).

[BuffaloWeather]

Ive been reading the New England forum as well. Based on all the speculation Ive read, what I gather is that it looks like this could really be a super nino, however, with several of the other factors involved, a better winter than 1982-83 or 1997-98 is probably in the offing locally. I highly doubt we are buried in deep snow and tundra like the last 2 winters, but it appears a lot of factors may be ripe for serious extremes (brutal cold shots interspersed with very mild periods) as well as strong storms (juiced subtropical jet). Not to mention an early peak of El Nino. There are several things very different than they were in 1997 or 1982, and while I personally know very little about enso patterns, all you have to do is look at the weak, mod, & strong nino winters and how they all are so different from one another, to know that while strong ninos still favor the winter to overall be milder than normal, it isnt as simple as saying "look at 1997-98 & 1982-83" (which were very different from each other even).

 

What was Detroits snowfall during those two seasons?

 

97-98 had 75.6" at KBUF

82-83 had 52.4"

 

After the last two winters I'm definitely calling for a below average snowfall year.

[Hoosier]

Ive been reading the New England forum as well. Based on all the speculation Ive read, what I gather is that it looks like this could really be a super nino, however, with several of the other factors involved, a better winter than 1982-83 or 1997-98 is probably in the offing locally. I highly doubt we are buried in deep snow and tundra like the last 2 winters, but it appears a lot of factors may be ripe for serious extremes (brutal cold shots interspersed with very mild periods) as well as strong storms (juiced subtropical jet). Not to mention an early peak of El Nino. There are several things very different than they were in 1997 or 1982, and while I personally know very little about enso patterns, all you have to do is look at the weak, mod, & strong nino winters and how they all are so different from one another, to know that while strong ninos still favor the winter to overall be milder than normal, it isnt as simple as saying "look at 1997-98 & 1982-83" (which were very different from each other even).

 

If there's one thing that should be present this winter, it's a STJ on steroids.  Just have to hope that moisture doesn't constantly get shunted well south as can happen in Ninos.  The good thing is that you probably can't find a winter where some cutters didn't happen...and actually, I can think of some pretty notable ones in moderate/strong Nino years. 

[Hoosier]

I wonder if 1877-1878 may be another year to look at, as it appears to have been a strong Nino and possibly the strongest event in the 19th century.  Lord knows we will see 82-83 and 97-98 mentioned a lot. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I wonder if 1877-1878 may be another year to look at, as it appears to have been a strong Nino and possibly the strongest event in the 19th century.  Lord knows we will see 82-83 and 97-98 mentioned a lot. 

 

Is a strong El Nino a pretty much lock at this point for the foreseeable future? What years have experienced a similar pattern to the one that is going to be in place for the next 6 months or so?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Is a strong El Nino a pretty much lock at this point for the foreseeable future? What years have experienced a similar pattern to the one that is going to be in place for the next 6 months or so?

I think a strong Nino is given at this point... whether it reaches Super threshold is more in question. 

 

I've seen some throw around 1919-20... but the months preceding that were mostly -PDO (there was a lot of oscillation).Also, there was only a moderate Nino at best.

[michsnowfreak]

What was Detroits snowfall during those two seasons?

 

97-98 had 75.6" at KBUF

82-83 had 52.4"

 

After the last two winters I'm definitely calling for a below average snowfall year.

Id like to wait til Fall to see what kind of factors we have going into winter (besides Enso). Below normal snow has happened here once in the last 8 years, so the two ways to look at it are either 1) we are VERY overdue, or 2) the pattern of snowy winters just doesnt want to die.

 

1997-98 only had 23.4" and 1982-83 had 20.0", so both well below normal snowfall wise. However the two winters were quite different from each other despite similar snowfall amounts.

 

Two other notable strong Nino winters, 1877-78 & 1972-73, also featured a milder than normal winter but with above normal snowfall.

[BuffaloWeather]

I think a strong Nino is given at this point... whether it reaches Super threshold is more in question. 

 

I've seen some throw around 1919-20... but the months preceding that were mostly -PDO (there was a lot of oscillation).Also, there was only a moderate Nino at best.

 

Thanks!

 

Id like to wait til Fall to see what kind of factors we have going into winter (besides Enso). Below normal snow has happened here once in the last 8 years, so the two ways to look at it are either 1) we are VERY overdue, or 2) the pattern of snowy winters just doesnt want to die.

 

1997-98 only had 23.4" and 1982-83 had 20.0", so both well below normal snowfall wise. However the two winters were quite different from each other despite similar snowfall amounts.

 

Two other notable strong Nino winters, 1877-78 & 1972-73, also featured a milder than normal winter but with above normal snowfall.

 

Makes sense. I figure most areas in the Great Lakes and Northeast don't do to well in strong Ninos.

[Hoosier]

Apparently there was a strong/super Nino in 1791. Unfortunately it's pretty hard to find weather records from back then but the link below has a temperature reconstruction map.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ei/ei_reconsb.html

[ClicheVortex2014]

Interesting compilation of past would-be strong Ninos in the preceding July. The water in the North Pacific is also relatively similar between 1997 and 2015, with the cold tongue extending east from the Sea of Okhotsk and warm tongue (or at least some warm water) extending east from Japan. The SW Pacific (north Hemisphere) is also similar, being at least below average.

 

 

I think it's also interesting how strongly negative the AMO is. RIP analogers

[Stebo]

Interesting compilation of past would-be strong Ninos in the preceding July. The water in the North Pacific is also relatively similar between 1997 and 2015, with the cold tongue extending east from the Sea of Okhotsk and warm tongue (or at least some warm water) extending east from Japan. The SW Pacific (north Hemisphere) is also similar, being at least below average.

 

 

I think it's also interesting how strongly negative the AMO is. RIP analogers

97 is certainly the closest one out of those.

[A-L-E-K]

Apparently there was a strong/super Nino in 1791. Unfortunately it's pretty hard to find weather records from back then but the link below has a temperature reconstruction map.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ei/ei_reconsb.html

 

 

[Hoosier]

97 is certainly the closest one out of those.

 

 

The warm pool off the west coast though looks larger in size.  It's possible that gets beaten down as we head into fall but if not, it's gonna mess up a lot of forecasts imo.  The temptation with a super/record breaking Nino will be to blowtorch the northern tier, but that would have a harder time happening.   

[Stebo]

The warm pool off the west coast though looks larger in size.  It's possible that gets beaten down as we head into fall but if not, it's gonna mess up a lot of forecasts imo.  The temptation with a super/record breaking Nino will be to blowtorch the northern tier, but that would have a harder time happening.   

True, however what would matter more, a strong/record Nino or a weakening +PDO/-EPO. If you ask me I think the Nino is going to those two less influential.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The warm pool off the west coast though looks larger in size.  It's possible that gets beaten down as we head into fall but if not, it's gonna mess up a lot of forecasts imo.  The temptation with a super/record breaking Nino will be to blowtorch the northern tier, but that would have a harder time happening.   

The current situation in the north Pacific is in line with CFS, which has the PDO diminishing in the coming months. I've been posting about this a lot, especially over on Accuweather's boards, but the cold pool just northwest of Hawaii is the feature to watch. Per CFS, it should grow and inch east. However, I'm not sure if this is it, as it could be a false flag for now.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

[Rainman]

So since the technical definition of an El Nino is 5 consecutive tri-monthly readings of +0.5C or greater, apparently this is not officially an El Nino yet since the JFM reading of 0.4C interrupted it? 

 

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

CPC's definition of an el Nino is irrelevant to pretty much everything.

[Hoosier]

Cool image but not really an apples to apples comparison since the 1997 image was around the peak of that El Nino event.

 

 

[csnavywx]

Another big WWB event getting underway. Looks about as strong as the record strength one at the beginning of the month. Perhaps a significant detail is that this one isn't being initiated by the MJO, although it looks like there might be some help from an equatorial rossby wave. It looks like Bjerknes feedback is starting to kicking into high gear and making these events much more likely.

[Rainman]

Another big WWB event getting underway. Looks about as strong as the record strength one at the beginning of the month. Perhaps a significant detail is that this one isn't being initiated by the MJO, although it looks like there might be some help from an equatorial rossby wave. It looks like Bjerknes feedback is starting to kicking into high gear and making these events much more likely.

 

Awesome!  Thanks for the info.  I wish I knew better what you were talking about  If we're going el Nino and a warm winter, let's just rock it and see how strong we can get it.  It'll be fun to watch.

[Rainman]

Cool image but not really an apples to apples comparison since the 1997 image was around the peak of that El Nino event.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what made them want to compare November to July.

[andyhb]

Yeah, I'm not sure what made them want to compare November to July.

 

Probably that this event in July is nearly comparable to 1997 in November, which is very impressive.

[Jonger]

Does El Nino always peak in the same month?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Does El Nino always peak in the same month?

No... but it does typically happen in the cool season. I think most typical is during the Fall.

[michsnowfreak]

Does El Nino always peak in the same month?

This el nino is expected to peak earlier than normal, & yes earlier than 82 or 97

[Hoosier]

This el nino is expected to peak earlier than normal, & yes earlier than 82 or 97

Not sure I agree with that. 82 and 97 peaked in late fall I believe.

[michsnowfreak]

Not sure I agree with that. 82 and 97 peaked in late fall I believe.

Again let me make this clear...I am NO nino expert . An earlier than normal peak is something they have been kind of harping on in the new England forum. All I know is peak aside, there have been many differences being pointed out between 1982, 1997, & 2015.