dwagner88 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Darn. Looks like this round is gonna miss down here as well. Seems like the activity has been consistently NE of the SPC's risk areas.Gonna be very hot and sticky today. I only got down to 78 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 That long track MCS Monday was interesting. WAA at both 850 and 700 mb maintained it through the Midwest into the Apps. Monday the hi-res models actually handled the northeast bias OK. Robust 700 mb temps capped points south and west of the MCS. Today is the main event for the Valley. Those 700 mb temps will break with the approaching shortwave and lift. Wind fields upstairs are unseasonably strong. Turning from 850 to 500 mb is good with the northwest flow setup. Surface winds, however, are not backed relative to 850, which is a limiting factor for tornadoes. On the other hand the morning storms laid down an obvious outflow boundary OFB. Look for it to become more diffuse this afternoon, but it should not wash out completely. As I type at 11am Central new thunderstorms are developing in Kentucky. I think they are elevated behind the OFB. That's just as well. For instability later development is preferred. Looks like the setup is good for a lot of high wind and some hail. I think derecho is out since 700 mb is cooling and 850 mb is soon to no longer be WAA. Still the theta E food with mid-70s dews should amp up storms. One or two tornadoes at the OFB would not shock me, but this has organized high wind written all over it. Though I'm fading classic derecho, I'm expecting plenty of damaging winds. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 A watch should be issued shortly per SPC. There is some backing of the wind field noted in southeastern Kentucky, but as Jeff mentioned, the OFB is becoming more diffuse. Nonetheless, with an inflow environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and enhanced low level helicities, any storms that can remain discrete across far southeastern Kentucky into eastern Tennessee may pose an isolated tornado threat. The storm currently over Cumberland County, KY looks the most robust and is taking in supercellular characteristics. It's in a favorable environment. I'll be out chasing (or trying to with the terrain/road network) in eastern Tennessee and will report back with anything interesting! Edit: That cell just went tornado warned for central Cumberland County and southern Clinton County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Supercell near Byrdstown is really cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 For the amount of severe thunderstorm warnings in a row, and a tornado warning, you would think there would be a watch of some type. (northern TN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 The aforementioned storm is now just SE of Byrdstown, TN and is showing strong rotation. It's about to interact with a storm from the south, so we'll see how the merger affects it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 SPC finally gets around to the severe ts watch. What are we still in the Sequester or something? Wish I could get out; but unlike in the Plains, responsibilities get in the way at home. I'd like to bolt up US-27 or I-75 from Chatty to the retreating OFB; then, just wait from a high spot on a cross highway. Quincy good luck chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Cell initation now occurring in and around Nashville and the I-40 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Supercell near Byrdstown is really cranking. The Byrdstown storm definitely had a strong rotation. That is pretty unusual to get 50-60 kt of shear and tornado-warned supercells in the middle of summer, that far south. The hail reports are racking up. I am having a tough time making sense out of the storm-relative velocity fields, currently, with a continued tornado warning around Sunbright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 dime sized hail with the storm over us,i didn't see any wall cloud that was reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Morning convection put a hamper on afternoon storms here. Sun is just now coming out. The line started training in Rogersville and everything developed south and west after that leaving us dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 some rotation starting to show on that warmed cell headed towards Crossville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 HRRR absolutely nailed this. Looks like I'm going to end up with lightning and a nice rain which suits me fine. Don't need the hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Cookeville TN reported tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Seeing some rotation on tilt 1 velocity as this storm moves into Chattanooga. Think a Tornado warning may happen shortly if it doesn't weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Documented a brief wall cloud feature not rotating (lower right between trees) approaching East Brainerd, and some curved mid-level inflow (mid-top), but all very weak compared to Plains structure. All of the above fell apart in a few minutes, probably good over a populated area. Small hanging cloud (lower left over roof) is not a funnel, but adds some drama. July 14 about 6:30 pm Eastern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Here is a shot from yesterday afternoon, looking south and east from my house. The storm was kind of disorganized as it approached me then blew up right over Maryville. The lightning bolts were incredible and from what I've heard from folks over there, it was a helluva storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Time Lapse from West Knoxville (Hardin Valley) - Facing North WestJuly 13 to 14Photo every 5 seconds, video at 30 FPS2:30 - Line 1 on the 13th - Barely Missed me 3:00 - Incredible Sunset on the 13th4:30 - Line 2 on the 14th - AND BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!!! 4:50 - Line 3 on the 14th5:00 - Line 4 on the 14th5:10 - Line 5 on the 14th6:40 - Cells that dropped tornadoes in middle TN pass thru, maybe some rotation?TIME LAPSE CUT OFF FOR 2 HoursMissed a strong storm, resume just after cell passes (approx 5 pm on the 14th) - incredible mammatus clouds7:40 - Zoomed in on line 6 (last one) blowing up over Kentucky8:35 - Line 6 - INCREDIBLE LIGHTNING SHOW!!!! - Power went off, killing camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Seeing some comparisons in the upcoming winter into spring with ElNino to 82-83 and 97-98.Who knows this far out what might happen.But the Middle parts of the Valley had some extreme weather,in 97-98 During the winter time of 97-98 Nashville only recorded a little over 1" of snow. The Cumberland the first week of Feb. had a big snow storm.Jamestown 18",Monterey 12",Livingston 9",these were all record setting one day totals,that closed I-40 for several hours and around 100k folks lost electricity Then in early spring the first confirmed f5 in Tennessee history hit Lawrence County.The same day a F3 hit downtown Nashville.This was the 10th largest tornado outbreak in Tennessee history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 The warmer temps with a strong El Nino provide more fuel and humidity for severe weather. Any such action is still months away though. First I'm looking forward to fall, cooler temps and changing leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Going to Pittsburgh this weekend,got tickets to the Nationals and Pirates game Sunday.Then off to Toronto for a week for a wedding.Gonna watch KC and Toronto play as well. By looking at the weeklies the Valley looks like torch coming up into August,especially the SW parts.MJO is gonna be stuck in P2 for awhile by the Euro ,drier in the W and more wet in the E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Hope you cheer for my Royals in Toronto! Have a safe fun trip. Yup Euro weeklies keep the rest of July hot, more slightly warmer than normal, but probably not any major heat wave. I was hoping my little SER first mentioned in June would be temporary. Apparently warm water off the Southeast Coast is in firm control. At times hints of WNW flow are noted. Hopefully it involves some boomers! Charts have August backing off but could just be week 4 normal bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Tennessee has seen 9 tornadoes across the state in July 2015, a new record for July! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=20150714 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Nature has some of the best July fireworks! 9 tornadoes in July no problem. MRGL covers much of Tennessee today. Looks like clusters of thunderstorms will ride along a boundary or stationary front from Dyersburg to Chattanooga. Instability may be limited by clouds on the boundary; but, I figure storms will hold together better than the average pulse junk near that boundary, perhaps bringing some entertaining / teasing straight wind. South of it more instability but less organization may promote local gusts. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 I've gotten rain 4 days running now for a total of almost 3 inches. Looks like a good chance tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 6z GFS is wash, rinse, and repeat for the next 16 days. This about the time I begin to watch for NA to cool off at the higher latitudes. Will only catch glimpses in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Time Lapse from West Knoxville (Hardin Valley) - Facing North West July 13 to 14 Photo every 5 seconds, video at 30 FPS 2:30 - Line 1 on the 13th - Barely Missed me 3:00 - Incredible Sunset on the 13th 4:30 - Line 2 on the 14th - AND BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!!! 4:50 - Line 3 on the 14th 5:00 - Line 4 on the 14th 5:10 - Line 5 on the 14th 6:40 - Cells that dropped tornadoes in middle TN pass thru, maybe some rotation? TIME LAPSE CUT OFF FOR 2 Hours Missed a strong storm, resume just after cell passes (approx 5 pm on the 14th) - incredible mammatus clouds 7:40 - Zoomed in on line 6 (last one) blowing up over Kentucky 8:35 - Line 6 - INCREDIBLE LIGHTNING SHOW!!!! - Power went off, killing camera This was amazing... straight up weather porn! You did a fantastic job with that. There were parts of it that literally took my breath away. What kind of camera and lens did you use if you don't mind me asking? You need to do this every time we have a threat! BRAVO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Thanks Stovetop! I've actually done this for every main event since spring this year, just only posted that one since it looked so cool. I will start posting them more! I need to find a way to overlay the radar image on the timelapse video so you can see the overall structure of the storm better. Know any good resources were I could download a .mov file of radar over a selected interval? I use a Panasonic Lumix G3 DSLR with a intervalometer and a stock 55MM lense with a fish eye adapter. I make the videos using the free GoPro software. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.