Summer Discussion

[jaxjagman]

In the 7-10 day range the GFS is sporting some ridiculous cool weather. 70s and 50s for a lot of us.

That's actually a strong cold front being shown for this time of the season crashing the heights.The GFS is showing a MCS or two in the Valley on todays 12z,the Euro just shows the front with some better shear right now.Both models do show some decent convection next Saturday for someone in the Valley.

[John1122]

Just gotta get through the next 5 days and hopefully rainy, somewhat cooler weather prevails. I saw some modeling show rainy and 70s/50s type weather all the way into July 4th but as MRX pointed out, the major rain systems they've shown 5-6 days out are turning much less rainy than originally modeled this summer.

[Jed33]

Had without a doubt, the heaviest rain I've seen in a long, long time this evening. It was quite the show with the lightning and wind! No real wind damage, but it was a cool storm nonetheless.

[jaxjagman]

EPS and GEFS  both are showing a ridge our W and a strenghtening ridge towards Bermuda.If this holds for us in the Valley we would we looking at some good moisture returns starting into Tuesday into next weekend,after that the models seem to diverge.As to who gets the best rains in the Valley should depend on any MCC'S.SPC shows us Tuesday in a marginal risk with a MCS or two somewhere in our area or into Ky.The Euro is showing a strong MCC,in the SE Valley (CHA)Friday.You can see the WPC'S potential is there if you want rain

 

[jaxjagman]

Just read the Hazards

 

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 26 2015

Synopsis: A quasi-stationary frontal boundary is expected to be situated from the mid-Atlantic states to the central Plains for the first half of this Outlook period, which will be the focus for unsettled weather. An area of upper-level high pressure is likely to persist across the western half of the Contiguous U.S. during the 3-7 and 8-14 day period. Upper-level high pressure is also expected to build across much of mainland Alaska for much of the days 3-7 and week-2 period, with the potential for some surface lows to break the pattern intermittently.

Hazards
Much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northwest, including northern California, Mon-Fri, Jun 29-Jul 3.
Heavy rain for parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Wed-Thu, Jul 1-2.
Enhanced wildfire risk for parts of mainland Alaska, Mon-Fri, Jun 29-Jul 10.
Slight risk for much above normal temperatures for the Pacific Northwest, Inter-mountain West, Great Basin, and most of California, Sat-Fri, Jul 4-10.
Moderate risk for much above normal temperatures across parts of the Pacific Northwest into northern California, Sat-Mon, Jul 4-6.
Slight risk of much above normal temperatures for southern Alaska, Tue-Fri, Jul 7-10.
Ongoing, likely, or possible flooding across parts of the east-central U.S. as well as parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Severe drought for parts of the western third of the CONUS, and southern Florida.
Detailed Summary

For Monday June 29 - Friday July 03: At the beginning of this period, an amplified upper-level ridge is forecast to build across the western half of the CONUS with a trough extending down into the Great Lakes. This pattern favors much above normal temperatures across parts of the Northwest, including northern California for this entire period. Some of these areas may experience temperature anomalies of 24 degrees F or greater above climatology, with temperatures reaching the triple digits. All-time record highs are also not out of the question in some parts of the northwest. Because of the long duration of these anomalously warm temperatures, people outdoors or without air conditioning should take precautions.

On the western periphery of the ridge center, upper-level shortwaves are expected to move northward over California into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern favors the development of dry thunderstorms and an enhanced risk of wildfires from the Sierras northward. At this time, however, there is too much uncertainty to highlight an area on the map.

In the East, strong shortwaves rotating over the western ridge and underneath the trough could lead to mesoscale convective systems developing and moving into the mid Mississippi Valley, where recent rains have caused widespread flooding. The numerical models are in good agreement on one strong system moving around the western ridge and bringing heavy rain from the eastern Central Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are possible in this area, which could exacerbate already ongoing flooding. In addition, isolated severe weather is also possible.

Warm and dry conditions are anticipated across much of mainland Alaska, increasing chances for wildfire risk across parts of this area. There is a chance of some wet weather in western Alaska, allowing for brief respites from the warm, dry conditions, although exactly how much and where any rain will fall remains uncertain. In addition, some model solutions are predicting heavy rain for parts of the Kenai peninsula towards the end of this period. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in this solution, thus no hazard is placed on the map.

[jaxjagman]

 

DAY 3...
AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...IT CONTINUES TO
ENCOUNTERS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOPPING OUT OVER 2.00 INCHES...WHICH IS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS STRONG INSTABILITY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED WARM RAIN PROCESSES IN PLACE...FAVORING A
CONVECTIVE MODE MORE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX OCCURS BETWEEN 2/06Z AND 2/18Z FROM SOUTHEAST MO
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN INTO WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN. THERE IS A
STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA...AND BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE MAXIMUM QPF. THE WPC QPF PLACED AN AXIS OF 2.00 TO
3.00 INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO MUCH OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL KY AND MUCH OF NORTHERN TN. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES IN THIS AREA GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2.50 AND 3.50
INCHES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR AND THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES DOMINATING...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACE OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO...SOUTHERN
IL/IN...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY/TN.

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

scaled back part of D2,To just the NW parts.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

 

 

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

...VALID 12Z WED JUL 01 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 N DMO 15 W SET 30 WNW BWG 15 NW OQT 15 WNW 1A5 25 NNW GVL
15 SSE 4A9 MSL 15 SSW HKA 20 ENE HRO 10 WNW SGF 45 SSE IXD
10 W LXT 40 N DMO.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
SZL 20 WSW JEF 15 SSW VIH 25 SSE TBN 35 SSW TBN 25 N SGF
60 SSE OJC 30 S LXT SZL.

DAY 1...

...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY / MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / TENNESSEE
VALLEY

EXPANDING MCS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NE...FAR NORTHEAST KS...AND
INTO MO EARLY THIS AM IS FEEDING OFF OF ROBUST MOISTURE FLUX
TRANSPORT (PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
(~40 KTS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS) POOLING INTO THE STATIONARY SURFACE
BNDRY.

THERE IS NOT AS MUCH LATITUDINAL SPREAD AMONG THE 00Z MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE WITH THE MAX RAINFALL AXIS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S 12Z
OUTPUT...WITH THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE NOW FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH
THE 1-3+ AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM 12Z WED - 12Z THU ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL MO SE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO...FAR
SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN KY...FAR NORTHEAST AR...AND INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL TN. MORE SPREAD WAS NOTED AMONG THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE... AND WERE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WPC ONCE AGAIN LEANED HEAVILY ON THE THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS AMONG THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...WITHOUT CARRYING
THE ACTIVITY TOO FAR INTO THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NORTHEAST OK. THE AREA CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE BEST COUPLING
OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS (UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE) AND MOST
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE (STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND
MOISTURE FLUX TRANSPORT ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY...WITH
OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING BETWEEN 1000-2000+ J/KG).

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS AM WILL
CONTINUE TO ENERGIZE THE MCS AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO...NORTHEAST AR...FAR SOUTHERN IL...AND WESTERN KY/TN LATER THIS
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE REMNANT MCV TO SPARK
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE A NEARLY
IDENTICAL TRACK (THOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER) AS THE ONE THIS
MORNING...I.E. FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY. THUS EXPECT THE NEXT MCS TO ONCE AGAIN GET GOING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SAME REGION...THOUGH PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER IN
THE EVENING (~3-6 HRS EARLIER PERHAPS) BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE.
OVERALL...PER THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6+ INCHES
FROM BOTH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS COMBINED ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH THE 4KM NAM CONEST PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH
10-14" ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL MO WHERE THE
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS DRAWN.

HURLEY

 

 

...TN VALLEY...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO LARGE
   BUOYANCY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OF AN MCS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
   12Z OVER MO. WHILE THIS MCS MAY DECAY FOR A TIME...REMNANT
   SEWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS SHOULD FOSTER SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT
   AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MODEST...ONE OR MORE
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
   HAZARD.

 

 

 

[nrgjeff]

Obligatory line echo wave pattern LEWP sliding across the Tennessee Alabama border as of 2:00 Central Time. Now I'm sure it'll make it to about South Pittsburg before weakening. Chattanooga is already stable. Looking fwd to reports near the LEWP though. I think we have posters back toward Madisonville and Huntsville...

[dwagner88]

Looks like a lot of rain has fallen. HTX radar indicates a pretty big swath of 6+" totals. Seems like a FFW would be warranted today. I'm down at the beach in SC this week, so I don't have any reports from MBY, but it looks on radar like 2-4" in my area.

[jaxjagman]

Todays Euro 12z

is showing a LP going into the NW Valley. Wed the 0-6km shear at 60 kts mid afternoon in the NW Valley and by OZ Thursday at 65kts plus in South Central Ky,we could have some strong storms by the looks in the western N  parts to the N/Mid parts of the Valley Wed,if this is right,and past the plateau into the tri area after this

 

Edit:Alot weaker on the 0Z, this morningstill there though

[John1122]

Potent El Nino developing, also, PDO is in it's warm phase still. If these both continue, they are indicators of below normal temps and above normal precip in the Southeast for winter.

[jaxjagman]

 

...LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS A BYPRODUCT OF OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION ACROSS IL/INDIANA/KY/OH WILL MODULATE A WAVY FRONTAL
   CORRIDOR THAT OTHERWISE EXTENDS NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   REGION. OBSERVATION INDICATIONS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ARE THAT A
   CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED /35 KT/ BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW /PROBABLE MCV/
   IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION...AND THIS SHOULD
   AT LEAST BE SOME FACTOR IN RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION
   INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
   WITH STRONG DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
   MORNING CONVECTION...AND ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
   EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE...THE RELATIVELY COLLOCATED BELT OF MODERATE
   WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING MULTICELLS/LINE
   SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MOSTLY DAMAGING WINDS.

 

 

...IL...IN...KY...SWRN OH: DAYTIME...
   A DYING MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SERN WI INTO NRN IL EARLY
   MON MORNING...WITH OTHER STORMS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS IL AND WRN
   INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
   WITH LITTLE CAPPING PRESENT...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   STRENGTHEN ACROSS INDIANA...NRN KY AND WRN OH THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...POSSIBLY FOCUSED ON A SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE N
   WHICH MAY ALSO EXTEND WWD INTO CNTRL IL BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE
   PREVIOUS DAYS MCS. AS WIND FIELDS INCREASE DURING THE
   DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   ENHANCED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING
   BOWS POSSIBLE WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY.
   WHILE COMPLEX STORM INTERACTIONS ARE PROBABLE...THE LONG HODOGRAPHS
   AND EXTREME BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE.

   BY LATE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
   CNTRL IL WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY FAVORING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME...STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AS THEY TRAVEL SEWD
   ACROSS THE OH RIVER AND POSSIBLY INTO TN BY LATE EVENING. WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF KY...WRN WV...AND
   TN...AND CONDITIONALLY INTO NRN AL/GA BY TUE MORNING.

 

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN KY...MUCH OF
   TN...NRN AL AND GA AND WRN NC...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS EWD TO
   THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN
   STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO
   NORTHER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS
   ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND
   VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
   INTO THE APPALACHIANS ON TUE...ADVANCING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
   BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
   EXIST ACROSS THE ERN U.S. WITH ONE SFC TROUGH ACROSS KY/TN DURING
   THE DAY AND ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL VA INTO THE CAROLINAS.
   A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
   REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER THE ERN
   CAROLINAS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S F.

   TO THE W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
   LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TO NRN
   HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SRN KY...TN...NRN AL AND GA...
   A DYING MCS IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY FROM WV INTO ERN KY AND TN TUE
   MORNING...WITH SOME WIND THREAT REMAINING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
   DURING THE DAY...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING TO THE W.
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS KY AND TN...AND NEAR ANY
   REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   AFTERNOON STORMS. THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AMPLE
   NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN YIELD A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
   THREAT...WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT LIKELY DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE
   FACTORS. WHILE SIG SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...PREDICTABILITY IS
   LOW AT THIS TIME. STORMS MAY BEGIN AS SUPERCELLS...THEN MERGE INTO
   AN MCS WHICH COULD THEN EXTEND SWD INTO NRN GA AND AL TUE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

   ...CNTRL AND ERN VA AND CAROLINAS...
   A SECONDARY AREA OF FOCUSED POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LEE
   TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH SCATTERED
   STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
   VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...WITH A
   TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CAN DEVELOP WITH
   BACKED SURFACE WINDS. PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS COULD SEE AN
   ENHANCED RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER
   AGREEMENT.

 

 

[nrgjeff]

Looks like some fun in the Valley on Monday and Tuesday. Damaging straight line winds looks like the main show, with perhaps a side order of hail. Unseasonable upper level winds are forecast, not strong but notable for July, along with seasonable or greater heat and humidity. Party time!

 

Monday I think tornadoes would be from far northern Kentucky into IN/IL and out of our region. Much of that is banjos, trees and hills, but a part of me wishes I could be in flat clear central Illinois. Closer to home Monday I expect scattered severe storms in the Valley during the late afternoon, with isolated damaging winds. Biggest red beasts on radar should have severe hail.

 

Tuesday could be the better severe day. Morning rain may deposit outflow boundaries. I'm not at all excited about tornadoes due to nearly unidirectional wind. However outflow is always a plus for any kind of severe. Decent wind speed from 850 to upper levels is forecast with a distinct short wave. If Monday night or Tuesday morning rain don't slam instability, Tuesday afternoon is going to be a high cape setup with a subtle shortwave. Perhaps many of us will enjoy ridiculous to ludicrous shelf clouds and even some wind and hail. Bring it!

[jaxjagman]

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   IL/INDIANA/KY/SOUTHERN OH/FAR EASTERN IA...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT
   LAKES TO SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WINDS...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE MIDWEST...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFYING WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
   CONUS...TO THE NORTH OF A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN PARTICULAR...A STRENGTHENING BELT OF
   NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
   OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH A
   NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
   MODULATED BY EARLY-DAY OUTFLOW/ ACROSS THE REGION.

   ...MIDWEST/OH RIVER VALLEY...
   MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCLUDE A
   FEW TORNADOES...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL...AND A
   CONSIDERABLE DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE
   DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS/S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   AN OVERNIGHT MCS...OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN/NORTHERN WI AROUND
   MIDNIGHT...MAY BE AROUND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE MI/NORTHERN
   IL/NORTHERN INDIANA VICINITIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD /12Z/
   THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/CLOUD DEBRIS AND POSSIBLY AN MCV WILL
   LIKELY BE CONSEQUENTIAL MESOSCALE-RELATED FACTORS INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POSSIBLE OUTFLOW/MCV MAY BE
   FACTORS FOR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY/TN VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS PROBABLE AND POSSIBLY SOME
   TORNADO RISK WITH QUASI-LINEAR/BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT.

   OTHERWISE...ANY PERSISTENT MORNING OUTFLOW/CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD ALSO
   SERVE AS A DELINEATING FACTOR FOR THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL
   DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST
   DESTABILIZATION TO BE EFFECTIVELY FOCUSED TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
   EARLY-DAY OUTFLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AN EASTWARD-ADVECTING ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER/PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A
   MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   4000-6000+ J/KG MLCAPE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/WESTERN
   INDIANA AND EASTERN IA/MO.

   WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT A SECONDARY
   ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN A CORRIDOR THAT MAY
   INCLUDE FAR SOUTHERN WI/SOUTHEAST MN...AND MORE LIKELY...IL/NEARBY
   INDIANA AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA/MO. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE
   CONTENT/EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLY
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS...SEMI-DISCRETE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAN
   BE EXPECTED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
   A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVEN WHILE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR/SRH WILL GENERALLY BE MODEST...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT WITHIN A HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY WITH
   OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY-RELATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL SRH/VORTICITY WILL BE ENHANCED. BY EVENING...THESE STORMS
   SHOULD TEND TO MERGE/GROW UPSCALE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING MCS
   WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A RENEWED ROUND OF WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY
   INTENSE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   A HOT/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING
   THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
   EASTERN CO INTO KS/MO...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A
   WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. AS MUCH AS 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   COULD SUPPORT SOME SEMI-SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
   ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER/SOME PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY MAY BE
   FACTORS...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
   VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH. SOME OF
   THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE UPSTREAM STORMS /POSSIBLY AS AN
   ORGANIZED MCS/ COULD SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
   REGION LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
   VICINITY/SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   ONE OR MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MAY INFLUENCE THE REGION AS
   SEMI-COOL/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OTHERWISE
   OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
   MOIST...DIURNALLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY SUPPORT
   SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
   THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

 

.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN KY AND TN INTO FAR WRN VA AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO NRN
   GA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS TO
   THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S....

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING INTO THE
   CAROLINAS...NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
   VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
   MIDWESTERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND TO THE
   CAROLINAS BY WED MORNING. ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE WILL BE MIDLEVEL
   FLOW OF 40-50 KT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
   ROUGHLY FROM NY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY 00Z...WITH A SECONDARY
   LEE-TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. A VERY MOIST
   AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
   FLOW/SHEAR FOR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS FROM KY/TN TO THE
   CAROLINAS.

   TO THE W...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
   MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND
   INTO THE EVENING.

   ...CNTRL AND ERN KY AND TN INTO FAR WRN VA...
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF AN
   MCS...TO BE ONGOING EARLY TUE ACROSS NERN KY...SRN OH...AND WV.
   GIVEN A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS...STORMS MAY PERSIST IN THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGHOUT THE
   MORNING...WITH SOME BACK-BUILDING ACROSS ERN KY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
   TN AFTER 18Z. BY THIS TIME...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
   FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WITH MID 70S F DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT....ALL BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW
   ALOFT. THIS SHOULD STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE
   HAIL. A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS A
   RESULT OF A LIKELY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...CONDITIONALLY INCREASING THE
   TORNADO THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
   STRONG TORNADO GIVEN A SSEWD STORM MOTION NEAR THE ZONE OF ENHANCED
   SRH. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS NRN AL/GA BY EVENING. THE
   GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN KY AND TN.

   ...NRN GA...SC...NC...SERN VA...
   NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP A LEE TROUGH DEEPEN FROM VA INTO THE CNTRL
   CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...WITH BACKING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND
   PROFILES BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE LEE
   TROUGH...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OUTFLOW
   WINDS THAT MAY CROSS THE MTNS. STRONG HEATING NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AS
   WELL AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
   INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS POSSIBLE FROM SRN VA
   INTO NC/SC. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
   AS WELL. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR AS WELL GIVEN FAVORABLE
   STORM MODE. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN WWD INTO GA AND SC
   WITH STRONG WLY MEAN WINDS HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center
9 hrs
Here's a snapshot look at how some of the thunderstorm-resolving models used by the SPC verified compared to the actual radar image over the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. The actual radar, valid at 10 pm CDT, is the image in top left of this 8-panel montage. All the other images are simulated radar from various model forecasts, valid at 10 pm CDT, Sunday July 12, 2015. Some of these are 27-hour forecasts from model information made available late last night, others are 15-hour forecasts, generated from models available Sunday morning. The variety shown in the radar simulations provides a graphical depiction of the spread in forecast scenarios. And, this is just a single hour in time! Some details were accurately depicted in the forecasts, other details not so much. Every model developed storms in Iowa where no storms developed. The point is, no forecast is perfect and we have to keep that in mind when reviewing this type of information.

[jaxjagman]

 

Risk areas scaled back some

 

If the NAM is right we will have a MCS possibly coming through around mid evening,tonight in Mid Tn. Valley.Tomorrow we still have capes of over 5k here by the NAM but we'll need something to trigger it,it looks better for you guys E of us.

 

[1234snow]

Main line is 360 miles away from Knoxville. The last warning I saw from that line had an estimated speed of 40mph. That puts the line around 9 hours away from our region. So 7-9 pm should be when the storms will be rolling through. Hopefully they can hold together. We will be under very unstable air so they should hold together.

It rained about 3/4ths of an inch last night. Sam's Gap is under a flash flood warning as they got 4 inches last night and this morning.

[1234snow]

Line is now 331 miles from Knoxville and has sped up slightly to 45mph. That makes it reaching us in approximately 7 and a half hours.

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IL...SOUTHERN IND...SOUTHWEST
   OH...MUCH OF KY...AND NORTH CENTRAL TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 131601Z - 131730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409 BY 18Z. A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN IND...SOUTHWEST OH...KY AND NORTH-CENTRAL TN WILL
   BE NEEDED BY 17Z

   DISCUSSION...SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER IND
   HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. IN FACT A GUST TO 65 MPH WAS
   MEASURED IN HAMILTON COUNTY IND IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. THE
   DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STRONG HEATING OF
   A VERY MOIST /75+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS/ AIRMASS CONTINUES. THIS WILL
   LEAD TO STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK E/SE...PROVIDING CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
   SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL VWP/S
   HAVE SHOWN EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS /RIJ
   STRUCTURE/ AT TIMES IN THE 1-3 KM RANGE. GIVEN THIS THERMODYNAMIC
   AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
   GIVEN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN
   MARGINAL. HOWEVER...A FEW SPIN-UPS IN MESOVORTICIES CAN NOT BE RULED
   OUT.

[1234snow]

Moderate Risk expanded back again and a huge Severe Watch is out for Kentucky.

[Windspeed]

That's a nasty nasty line.

[1234snow]

Screenshot_2015-07-13-15-04-53.png

That's a nasty nasty line.

It's moving faster too, Windspeed. It's moving up to 55mph now. Which puts it about 2 1/2 hours out of NETN.

[1234snow]

[jaxjagman]

Nice cell around Cambellsville,KY,3" hail market and rotation

[jaxjagman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   655 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA
     SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
     NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
     EASTERN TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM
     UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
       MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LONG HISTORY OF
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROCEED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION...OFFERING DAMAGING GUSTS.
   MEANWHILE OTHER RELATED STORMS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHOULD MOVE
   SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
   NORTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
   SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

[jaxjagman]

Rotation on that cell by Celina,big hailer also 4" marker

[1234snow]

Round 2!

[LithiaWx]

Stay frosty friends, the potential is there for another active severe weather day in the eastern valley.