jaxjagman Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 BNA Sars has a 3" hail analog for BNA during this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND NORTHEAST STATES. ...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. EARLY-DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATED CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING FRONT...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY VIA A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FEED OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR. 35-55 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES MAY ULTIMATELY WARRANT INCLUSION INTO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK PENDING FURTHER DETAILS/CONFIDENCE IN MORE CONSEQUENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS... ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM VIA LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION/INCREASED ORGANIZATION AS THE STORMS SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE WSW-ENE ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS. A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE HIGHER-LEVEL WESTERLIES MAY LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL. ..GUYER.. 06/06/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 12Z NAM 4K for BNA,Monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 If the NAM 4k is anywhere right we could have a good light show late afternoon/evening for BNA with the k-index at 43 and the potential of some flash flooding being we haven't seen rain in days with the PW's @ 1.92" with the LI @-9 and MUCapes above 3800.Not the greatest wind shear Monday but you can't rule out a mesocyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN/OH VALLEY TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST STATES/DELMARVA... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES/DELMARVA... AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SCATTERED EARLY-DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATED CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING FRONT...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION PARTICULARLY WITH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES/DELMARVA WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY...BUT POTENTIALLY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF PA/DELMARVA VICINITY WITH THE POSSIBLE AID OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING/TERRAIN. THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FEED OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND STRENGTHENING BELT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS /30-60 KT BETWEEN 700-500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... WHILE MASS CONVERGENCE WILL WE WEAK...AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED /50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING BELT OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS...SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS...COULD OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO OZARKS... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM VIA WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION/INCREASED ORGANIZATION AS THE STORMS DRIFT/SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD TX PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN OK WITHIN A RELATIVELY SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR. A TORNADO COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/FAR SOUTHEAST CO VICINITIES...BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. FARTHER EAST...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE WSW-ENE ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS OK TO THE OZARKS. A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE HIGHER-LEVEL WESTERLIES COULD LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL. ..GUYER.. 06/07/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS TO CENTRAL MD/PA AND PARTS OF SERN NY/NWRN NJ... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES TO THE TN VALLEY...WESTWARD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CENTRAL MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ARKANSAS WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOVING E/SE OF THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WITHIN A BAND OF 50+ KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS. MEANWHILE...A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 09/00Z. THIS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN TURN EWD MONDAY EVENING TRACKING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ...MID-SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO TO SRN KS AT 12Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND TRAIL SWWD THROUGH OH TO THE MID-SOUTH BY 12Z TUESDAY. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. AREAS OF CONVECTION AND RELATED DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER PERVASIVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF DIABATIC HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID-DAY...YIELDING MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AMIDST GENERALLY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WEAK MLCINH AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSES SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND REMNANT MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODERATE H85-H5 SWLYS/WSWLY ARE FORECAST TO ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH OCCASIONAL FAST-MOVING/SMALL EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD GENERALLY EWD WITH TIME. A FURTHER INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF WIND FIELDS OCCUR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING UPPER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ESTABLISHED LEWP PATTERNS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREATS SHOULD BE OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH A SEPARATE AREA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MD TO SERN NY/NWRN NJ WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS LATTER THREAT AREA MAY EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO MORE OF SERN NY...BUT CURRENTLY FORECAST WEAKER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THIS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST... MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. LIMITED MOISTURE /50S F SURFACE DEW POINTS/ IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING BELT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS...SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS...COULD OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO OZARKS... ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR INTENSIFICATION/INCREASED ORGANIZATION AS THE STORMS DRIFT/SPREAD E/SEWD TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE WITHIN A RELATIVELY SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR. A TORNADO COULD OCCUR...BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. FARTHER EAST...A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS OK TO THE OZARKS. A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE HIGHER-LEVEL WESTERLIES COULD LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL. ..PETERS/DEAN.. 06/08/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 SPC shinks tornado 5% at 13Z and rightfully so. Looks like morning line going up Middle Kentucky into Mid/West Tennessee is too early and will crush CAPE for the eastern Valley. Second line should redevelop farther northwest, where the airmass will recover more, but winds will be veered off. I'm not sure I believe the HRRR with its hideous performance recently. It blows up two lines with the stronger one west, but seems like too much going on. RAP holds onto a dominant front (east) line but I think it has already blown the forecast. 12Z hi-res NAM echos the 2nd line (west) dominant forecast, without all the HRRR noise. However winds are veered off back there. Appears wind and hail are the main threats today. No ENH is a good call though; again, low CAPE with the morning line going too early. Otherwise mid level and upper level winds are healthy for this time of year. Maybe we can get some shelfies or pics of other benign but scary looking clouds, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Had a nice little heavy rain here that lasted 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Severe Watches are out let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 1933Z: Slight rotation noted out of a kidney bean northwest of Nashville. I don't normally post play-by-play but it feels like the first time in forever. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Just missed the brunt of the line. Kingsport might have some tree damage coming. Back toward Church Hill a spike in the velocity occurred. I'm guessing close to 70 mph for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 59 mph recorded at KTRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I was very happy with the storms we got last night. Some of the hardest rain I've ever seen but wind gusts were not too bad and no hail that I noticed. The lightning was the best I've seen this year. Hopefully we can get into a pattern of more consistent summer afternoon pop-up storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 The rain was definitely nice! It wasn't overly heavy at the house, but it was steady for most of the evening and a few heavier bursts. It was the most rain in one system we've had in quite awhile, I guess since April. Ended up with almost 1.25in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 KCHA gusted to 56 (1 minute reading was 47 mph) with the first storm at 5:30. I had more wind IMBY from the second round that hit around sunset. There was apparently a lot of damage in the East Ridge area. The newspaper said that 8 homes were deemed uninhabitable due to falling trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted June 11, 2015 Author Share Posted June 11, 2015 KCHA gusted to 56 (1 minute reading was 47 mph) with the first storm at 5:30. I had more wind IMBY from the second round that hit around sunset. There was apparently a lot of damage in the East Ridge area. The newspaper said that 8 homes were deemed uninhabitable due to falling trees. I was at Brown Acres when the first one hit...it took out 4-5 trees around the golf course....we bolted about 15 mins before the second came in. So I can give no comparison. But there was no hail...just quite a bit of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 GFS just threw another bone into the forecast for the Valley.It's still sticking with the trough and this LP S off La would ride it seemingly and as it crosses into Ark and into Ky but the winds would be out of the S TO SW,The last run of the GFS is showing the LLJ AT 45kts in the western Valley with the shear at 0-1 km at 30 kts,Wed afternoon.Only thing the models seem to agree on at this point is there will be some record breaking temp east of us towards the SE states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Ugh, if KMGE manages to stay be,ow 95 today I'll be lucky.... Good lord it's hot down this way. Hopefully further north into the TV it's not as hot. I'm already six degrees ahead of yesterday during the past two temp updates, if that trend continues I'm looking at 96 for a high, the NWS says 94 today and 95 tomorrow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Ugh, if KMGE manages to stay be,ow 95 today I'll be lucky.... Good lord it's hot down this way. Hopefully further north into the TV it's not as hot. I'm already six degrees ahead of yesterday during the past two temp updates, if that trend continues I'm looking at 96 for a high, the NWS says 94 today and 95 tomorrow...... Certainly by the GEFS you guys in your area look toasty coming up,not that our area is relative cool,just not as hot as you guys. The weeklies last Thursday is showing a ridge (592dm) building into the Valley from the W the last week of June then shifting east into the Mid Atl.Today's MJO is showing it going into phase 6 during the same time so it's another period to watch in the long term,maybe something pops up in the GOM during this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Certainly by the GEFS you guys in your area look toasty coming up,not that our area is relative cool,just not as hot as you guys. The weeklies last Thursday is showing a ridge (592dm) building into the Valley from the W the last week of June then shifting east into the Mid Atl.Today's MJO is showing it going into phase 6 during the same time so it's another period to watch in the long term,maybe something pops up in the GOM during this time frame Well I got lucky and only hit 91. Today may be a different story. NWS is going with 94. Based on what you're saying it looks to stay hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I was in South Carolina playing golf and it was 98-100 yesterday so it feels nice back home lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Yes they are downsloping a bit off the Apps. In the larger scale the SER looks to maintain control for the next 10-14 days, perhaps longer. Any breaks will be minimal. Texas system now looks to be shunted northwest, but may still come around this way. if not, well it'll just get more humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yes they are downsloping a bit off the Apps. In the larger scale the SER looks to maintain control for the next 10-14 days, perhaps longer. Any breaks will be minimal. Texas system now looks to be shunted northwest, but may still come around this way. if not, well it'll just get more humid. 595dm+ death ridge incoming? The signal on the models is sick heat. I'm not expecting another 108 like we had a couple of summers ago but this is a nasty heat wave developing. This one looks to have some staying power and humidity which IMO is worse than a single extremely hot but very dry day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MT...NERN WY INTO SRN ND AND NRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO A PORTION OF MN... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO A PART OF MINNESOTA FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. ...SYNOPSIS... FASTER BELT OF WLYS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES MOVING THIS ZONE OF FLOW FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. ...NRN PLAINS AREA INTO CNTRL MN... ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF ND EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NRN MN DURING THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONE OF FASTER WLYS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF EARLY STORMS FROM ERN MT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHERE AN AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. A CAP RESULTING FROM AN EWD ADVECTING EML WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN MT INTO NRN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ESEWD AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WRN/CNTRL MT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING OVER THE DAKOTAS AS ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT GROWS UPSCALE SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING LLJ. PRIOR TO UPSCALE GROWTH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES WITH INITIAL STORMS. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT. HAVE INCLUDED AN ENHANCED THREAT AREA DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS. ...SERN MO THROUGH SWRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... CORRIDOR OF MODERATE-STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE DAY INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY AND SWRN PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY. SOME THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO KY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. A MORE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER A PORTION OF LOWER MICHIGAN...TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA... RICHER MOISTURE WITH MID-UPPER 60S NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SATURDAY WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE EML ADVECTS EWD...SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN BELT OF FASTER WLYS WHERE A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM MN EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF MN DURING THE MORNING AND WILL DEVELOP ESEWD DURING THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SWLY LLJ. THOUGH CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE IN MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...SOME SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...CNTRL TN THROUGH KY... A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANTS OF TS BILL. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANY SUCH THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/18/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yesterdays weeklies continue to show the SER breaking down and and the ridge shifts to the NW then what happens after that is cloudy IMHO.The weeklies now show a ridge around the lower plains during the July 2-3 time frame then it starts to extend into the heart of the Valley around the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The bad news would be if the weeklies are any where right it shows the ridge moving back into the Valley by the end of wk4,being the heat of summer we would be looking at some temps easily reaching the trip digits again towards Mid July if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 In the 7-10 day range the GFS is sporting some ridiculous cool weather. 70s and 50s for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 In the 7-10 day range the GFS is sporting some ridiculous cool weather. 70s and 50s for a lot of us. We cheer for 70's as highs here,gotta feel bad for some folks up NE especially into Maine,don't believe they've seen upper 70's yet this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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