2015 NATL Tropical (hurricane season) forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Last call for August revisions. Those received so far have been edited into the table (post 47).

[Roger Smith]

Check your September monthly forecast and revise if you wish, before September 1st 06z.

[Stebo]

3/2/1 for September

[yoda]

4/3/1 for September

[andyhb]

September 3/2/1.

[IsentropicLift]

4/3/1 for September

[Roger Smith]

Just a clarification on the rules (based on our discussion last year of this subject).

 

If the disturbance off the west coast of Africa gets a name at or before 03z Sept 1, which is 11 p.m. August 31st in EDT, then all of its subsequent development will belong to August. Otherwise, if named later, it will go to September. If the storm only has a number at that time and gets the name later, then it will belong to September. (edit, this is now moot as Fred has already developed and all of its later development will belong to August for the contest).

 

Also, if Erika redevelops and gets the name Erika reassigned, then regardless of when that happens, all of its subsequent ratings will belong to August. The same applies if the storm redevelops at or before 03z Sept. 1 with a new name (which is not supposed to happen).

[ncforecaster89]

Just a clarification on the rules (based on our discussion last year of this subject).

If the disturbance off the west coast of Africa gets a name at or before 03z Sept 1, which is 11 p.m. August 31st in EDT, then all of its subsequent development will belong to August. Otherwise, if named later, it will go to September. If the storm only has a number at that time and gets the name later, then it will belong to September. (edit, this is now moot as Fred has already developed and all of its later development will belong to August for the contest).

Also, if Erika redevelops and gets the name Erika reassigned, then regardless of when that happens, all of its subsequent ratings will belong to August. The same applies if the storm redevelops at or before 03z Sept. 1 with a new name (which is not supposed to happen).

Hi Roger! Hope you're doing well. I know we had this discussion last year...but I still don't understand the reasoning for classifying a particular August developing TS (for example) as an August "major" H...if it doesn't achieve that intensity until the subsequent month of September. If it becomes a MH in September...as opposed to August...it's still not an August MH in the official HURDAT record...regardless of it's TS origination.

All that being said, I respect your decision and understand that is the rules you chose for this particular contest.

[Roger Smith]

Maybe it should go to some sort of vote although I think people knew going in that this is how the contest worked. By the way, I don't think this is just a system that I invented for the contest, are there not other instances where this is how the count goes? In any case, I also inherited this contest scoring and it's my (rather vague) recollection that this system was already in place.

 

Now here's a devil's advocate question: if a storm is a hurricane in both August and September (as Fred might be) then would you count forecasts of hurricanes as valid from Fred's being a hurricane on (let's say) August 31 and September 1? Obviously not in the seasonal, but in August and in September? Or would you have a rule that said it only went into August and not September, but the other way around if it waited until September 1st to be a hurricane?

 

Because if you counted it twice, it would not add up from monthly to seasonal totals.

 

Anyway, I am not going to change the scoring rules mid-contest, but for next year's contest maybe we should reach some sort of group decision on how this is meant to be done. Can you point me to another source (other than HURDAT) where this is actually illustrated, by the way, because it has always been my subjective impression that the way this contest works is the way most people tabulate monthly storm counts, despite what HURDAT might be doing?

 

Hope nobody is too confused here, and it's worth noting that so far no storm has actually broken our house rules anyway (this year).

 

My opinion is that it would not be a good thing to say that a storm could be a hurricane or a major in more than one month since my guess is that when people make monthly forecasts at start of season, they don't assume that some storms will double qualify. Also my seasonal normals and interpolations of NHC monthlies don't use this assumption.

[Mallow]

I like the way it's run now, but that's not a surprise, since I originally set up this contest's rules (as Roger noted).

I don't feel strongly about it, but the reasons Roger mentions are those that crossed my mind as well.

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, Mallow, I'm glad that apparently I didn't change the rules without realizing it. But in any case, what I will do (at the end of the contest if not before) is to generate two sets of scoring, one based on the scoring rules in play, and another based on "status goes with month first noted" (we will toss out option C, any month valid). That way, everyone can see how their forecasts would score using either system. This might not tell us a lot since people know the rules and tailor their forecasts to those rules, but I am noting that many entrants are sticking with their original forecasts from end of May.

 

So if anyone is still confused, Fred gets all of his storm status noted in August, don't change your September forecast to capture Fred's predicted change in status because that will only count for your August forecast.

[ncforecaster89]

Maybe it should go to some sort of vote although I think people knew going in that this is how the contest worked. By the way, I don't think this is just a system that I invented for the contest, are there not other instances where this is how the count goes? In any case, I also inherited this contest scoring and it's my (rather vague) recollection that this system was already in place.

Now here's a devil's advocate question: if a storm is a hurricane in both August and September (as Fred might be) then would you count forecasts of hurricanes as valid from Fred's being a hurricane on (let's say) August 31 and September 1? Obviously not in the seasonal, but in August and in September? Or would you have a rule that said it only went into August and not September, but the other way around if it waited until September 1st to be a hurricane?

Because if you counted it twice, it would not add up from monthly to seasonal totals.

Anyway, I am not going to change the scoring rules mid-contest, but for next year's contest maybe we should reach some sort of group decision on how this is meant to be done. Can you point me to another source (other than HURDAT) where this is actually illustrated, by the way, because it has always been my subjective impression that the way this contest works is the way most people tabulate monthly storm counts, despite what HURDAT might be doing?

Hope nobody is too confused here, and it's worth noting that so far no storm has actually broken our house rules anyway (this year).

My opinion is that it would not be a good thing to say that a storm could be a hurricane or a major in more than one month since my guess is that when people make monthly forecasts at start of season, they don't assume that some storms will double qualify. Also my seasonal normals and interpolations of NHC monthlies don't use this assumption.

Hi Roger! Maybe I should have been more clear about the fact that I wasn't taking exception to the way the contest was set up. Obviously, I was well aware of the rules going into the contest-so my post wasn't motivated by some self-serving purpose.

I referenced HURDAT since it's the main TC database for the NATL basin from which most storm counts are derived.

To answer your question...I personally would only count the original month that a particular TC attained H and/or MH intensity...regardless of whether or not it maintained, or even regained, that intensity during the subsequent month. In another example, if a TS developed on August 29th, achieved H intensity on the 31st of August...and subsequently became a MH on September 2nd, I would categorize it according to the maximum intensity it achieved for each specific month. That's how the HURDAT lists are compiled and tabulated. I realize this is essentially a matter of one's personal preference, and in my case, all of my extensive TC tabulations have used this particular method.

For me, a TS that originates in August...but doesn't achieve H and/or MH status until September shouldn't be listed as an August H and/or MH...since it didn't actually achieve that intensity during the preceding month.

Regardless of my personal views on the subject, I want to reiterate that I genuinely respect your own personal view, and more importantly, the fact that you are the originator of the contest. Moreover, I willingly accepted the rules as outlined when I chose to participate.

Once again, I wasn't suggesting any mid-season change to the rules since all of us made our projections taking the aforementioned into account - myself included. Whether Fred ultimately achieves MH intensity in the future had (has) no relevancy as to why I shared my views on this subject matter.

[ncforecaster89]

Thanks, Mallow, I'm glad that apparently I didn't change the rules without realizing it. But in any case, what I will do (at the end of the contest if not before) is to generate two sets of scoring, one based on the scoring rules in play, and another based on "status goes with month first noted" (we will toss out option C, any month valid). That way, everyone can see how their forecasts would score using either system. This might not tell us a lot since people know the rules and tailor their forecasts to those rules, but I am noting that many entrants are sticking with their original forecasts from end of May.

So if anyone is still confused, Fred gets all of his storm status noted in August, don't change your September forecast to capture Fred's predicted change in status because that will only count for your August forecast.

As I clarified in the preceding post, I am not lobbying for any change to the rules for this season. As you correctly noted, all of us made our respective forecasts based solely upon how the contest was set up. I apologize for the inadvertent confusion I may have caused by giving the impression I might be suggesting a mid-season change in the rules. To do so, would be wholly inappropriate and totally unfair to all. To reiterate, I took the rule into account (as it currently exists) when I made my own seasonal forecast. Like you also noted, I'm one of many who haven't felt it was necessary to amend our monthly projections, to date.

Please let me conclude by expressing my genuine appreciation for all the work you put into this contest every season, and convey how much I enjoy being a part of it - regardless of performance!

[Roger Smith]

No worries, I was not offended in the least by the discussion and in fact I find it rather confusing how to set up the contest with the two different paradigms. It makes sense to me that a historical record would reference the month the way you've described. But anyway, so far Fred has been helpful in becoming a hurricane before August ended, so that it looks like we may avoid any tabulation issues. I suppose there's a slight chance of it becoming a major in the second week of September, if it avoids fizzling out in the cooler mid-Ocean regions as the NHC suggests.

 

Anyway, if we get any cases that can be tabulated either way, then I will generate scores for the second option but only the first set of scores will be official.

 

Now that Fred has become a hurricane, August has reached 3 2 1 and the seasonal count is 6 2 1.

 

I will post some scores back in the table that will show how everyone is doing from June through August.

[Roger Smith]

Just a reminder, you can post a revised October monthly forecast now to 06z October 1st without penalty. Check your current contest value in the table back on page 2 and see if that's your current estimate. Meanwhile, check back in early October to see the updated scoring through September.

 

(added on Sept 28 at 03z) _ Now that Joaquin has formed, please note for the contest that all of Joaquin's future activity will count in September and not in October. This will be true whether the upgrade (should it occur) to either H or MH is in September or in October. I will hold off on updating the scoring until it appears that Joaquin has ended its life cycle.

 

The same will apply should there be any other named storm before September ends. If Ida should resume activity anything above already achieved TS status will still count in September. However, if the NHC decides to give the resumed activity a new name then the usual rules will apply in October, assuming that happens after 03z tonight. I'm not sure how long a storm has to be dormant before vague remnants are subject to a new name.

 

(added on Sept 30th) _ Joaquin has made hurricane status within September so that just leaves us with the detail that if it becomes a major hurricane in early October that will count for September too. Don't change your October forecast to accommodate this possibility or any Ida return to hurricane status. But I will (if this happens) provide alternate scores for your interest at the end of the contest, based on the timing rather than the rules as stated.

 

In fact, Joaquin rapidly achieved MH status, will have to see if that was officially in September or October, depends on what time zone or the exact time between advisories they figure this happened. Anyway, for the contest, we now have a 4/1/1 finish for September. That is, unless Ida reforms and makes it to hurricane status, then it would be 4/2/1 (can't see any guidance suggesting 4/2/2 is in the cards). As I don't think it will necessarily reform, I will go ahead now and score September, can always update that if necessary. Look for those scores and new totals to date by tomorrow.

[Roger Smith]

PROVISIONAL SCORING (Nov 9th updated for Kate)

 

New as of Nov 11th _ potential scores for 12,4,2 added

 

Final table now posted, 12,4,2 column below is retained for your interest but first column is now confirmed.

 

FORECASTER __  confirmed scores 11,4,2  ___ 12,4,2 (rank) 

 

1 ..Troy1234 _________ 92.0 ___________ 89.0 (5t)

 

2 ..mean of forecasts___ 91.8 ___________ 88.6 (8)

 

2 ..Torchageddon _____ 91.0 ___________ 87.0 (9)

2 ..LakeEffectKing _____91.0 ___________ 89.5 (3t)

2 ..Stebo ____________ 91.0 ___________ 89.5 (3t)

 

5 ..Rjay _____________ 90.5 ___________ 88.5 (8)

5 ..chaser25973 _______90.5 ___________ 92.0 (1)

5 ..U Thant __________ 90.5 ___________ 86.5 (10)

8 ..dmillz25 __________ 89.5 ____________90.5 (2)

 

8 ..Consensus ________ 89.5 ___________ 85.5 (11)

 

9 ..ksammut __________ 89.0 ___________ 89.0 (5t)

9 . Alaska Etc _________89.0 ___________ 89.0 (5t)

11 . andyhb __________ 88.5 ___________ 84.5 (12t)

11 . yoda ____________ 88.5 ___________ 85.5 (11)

11 . ncforecaster89_____88.5 ___________ 84.5 (12t)

14 . Wannabehippie ____88.0 ___________ 84.0 (14)

15 . Icebreaker5221 ____87.5 ___________ 83.5 (15)

16 .DonSutherland.1 ___ 87.0 ___________ 82.0 (18)

17 . Isotherm _________ 85.5 ___________ 80.5 (19)

18 . wxmx ____________85.0 ___________ 80.0 (20t)

19 . OHweather _______ 84.5 ___________ 79.5 (22t)

19. PSUblizzicane2007__84.5 ___________ 78.5 (24)

21. Tom_____________  84.0 ___________ 80.0 (20t)

21. Mallow ___________ 84.0 ___________ 82.5 (17)

 

23. NOAA mid-range ___ 83.8 ___________ 79.3 (24)

 

23. Amped ___________ 82.0 ___________ 78.0 (25)

23. Isentropic Lift ______ 82.0 ___________ 83.0 (16)

25 . Juliancolton _______81.5 ___________ 76.5 (27)

26. metalicwx366 ______ 80.5 ___________ 77.5 (26)

27. hurricaneman ______79.5 ___________ 74.0 (28)

27. N. of Pike _________79.5 ___________ 79.5 (22t)

29. Ga_wx ___________ 76.5 ___________ 70.5 (31)

30. mackerel_sky ______76.0 ___________ 71.0 (30)

31. Hvward ___________70.5 ___________ 74.0 (27)

32. groundscouring _____68.0 ___________ 61.0 (32)

 

33. Contest Normal _____67.0 ___________ 70.0 (32)

 

33. Absolute Humidity ___66.5 ___________ 58.5 (33)

34 .Avanthiatus _______ 30.0 ___________ 30.5 (35)

35. Roger Smith _______28.0 ___________ 32.5 (34)

 

Notes:

 

First number in row is ranking for 11,4,2 which is now the count as of Nov 11th. Mean and consensus as well as NOAA mid-range and Contest Normal are ranked but do not affect order of actual forecasters.

 

Second score assumes that a 12th storm is named later.

 

All of the scoring has been calculated on an excel program.

 

There was some really high scoring this year as many went with the idea of a fairly inactive season.

 

Watch for final results to be posted near the end of the year.

 

(Summary _ edited Nov 9th _  Troy 1234 will win the contest if there are no more storms. Chaser25973 will win if there is a 12th storm. Anything beyond that we will have to rework the tables.

 

MONTHLY scoring totals

 

1. Chaser25973 _______ 45.5

2. Torchageddon ______ 45.0 

2. DonSutherland.1 ____ 45.0

4. PSUBlizzicane2007 __ 44.5 

5. AlaskaETC _________ 44.0

6. U Thant ____________43.5

7. Troy1234 ___________43.0

7. wannabehippie ______ 43.0 

7. Lake Effect King _____ 43.0 

 

10. Consensus ________ 42.5 

 

10. dmillz25 ___________42.5

10. NCforecaster89 _____42.5

 

watch for the full list at the end of the year.

[Roger Smith]

Please note that post 47 is now updated through end of October which finished 0,0,0 and as of Nov 11th now has provisional scoring for NOV-DEC and totals based on 11,4,2.

 

The previous post above this one is now expanded to include all scores that will apply if NOV-DEC finishes 1,1,0  -- Troy1234 would be the contest winner for this outcome, Chaser25973 would win if we go to 12 named storms.

 

If by some chance we get three named storms (or more) in NOV-DEC then this will all have to be reworked. I noticed looking at the seasonal forecasts that one or two could still enjoy a perfect seasonal forecast if the right things happen in Nov-Dec but nobody will quite nail one in these three most likely outcomes. Troy1234 Rjay Stebo and yoda will share the best seasonal forecasts if we finish 11,4,2 with 49/50, However, if we finish 12,4,2 the best seasonal scores will be dmillz25 and ksammut at 49.50.

 

The best monthly performances are listed in the previous post. Almost all of these were submitted in advance of the entire season although one or two points were gained (or lost) by mid-season edits.

 

Final scoring will be clarified in a post to be made in late December whenever it becomes apparent that no further action can be expected. There may be further action according to the Nov 9th 12z GFS run.

[Roger Smith]

All scoring tables have been updated to include newly formed "Kate" and (two posts back) you can compare the current scoring with one other scenario, one being Kate having reached hurricane status but the last storm, and a second option being a 12th named storm but with that one being no stronger than TS.

 

Basically, the way things stand, Troy1234 will win if Kate is the last storm. Chaser25973 will win if there's just one more storm (also as I have calculated in the excel program, if we end up 13,4,2 or even 13,5,2). If we go to two more, there would be another winner, probably someone from the group who predicted 13 named storms.

 

Maybe we're facing a situation like 1887 and the count will mount -- or maybe we are already at the final tally.

[Roger Smith]

--<<< Final Scoring Summary for the 2015 NATL Tropical Forecasting Contest >>>--

 

 

FORECASTER _____ SEASON __ June __ July__ August _ September_ October _ Nov-Dec ___ mo. Totals /

______________________________________________________________________________/ Contest total

 

 

Actual(+100 May)_11 4 2 ____ 100 ____ 100 _____ 321 ____ 411 _____ 000 _____ 110

 

01 Troy1234____ 10 4 2_49.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 21110.0 _ 32114.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 43.0 ___ 92.0
 

02 Mean*________10.0 4.7 1.9___0.8 0.2 0___1.3 0.6 0__2.3 1.2 0.4__3.1 2.0 1.1__1.3 0.6 0.2__0.3 0 0

_ _ scores for mean ____ 48.3 ____ 3.9 ___ 5.8 ____ 10.7 ____ 14.0 _____ 7.7 _____ 1.1 ____ 43.5 ___ 91.8

 

02 Stebo _______11 5 2_49.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0 __ 110 8.0__ 1001.5___ 42.0 ___ 91.0

 

02 LakeEffectKing 11 5 3_48.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 31111.0 _ 32114.0__ 111 7.0__ 1001.5___ 43.0 ___ 91.0

02 Torchageddon_ 9 5 2_46.0_ 100 4.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 32112.0 _ 33112.0__ 00010.0__ 0001.0___ 45.0 ___ 91.0

 

05 Rjay ________11 5 2_49.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 31010.0 _ 43212.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 41.5 ___ 90.5

05 UThant ______ 9 4 2 _47.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 32011.0_ 32213.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 43.5 ___ 90.5

05 Chaser25973 _ 13 5 1_45.0_ 210 3.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 32112.0 _ 42014.0__ 100 9.0__ 1001.5___ 45.5 ___ 90.5

 

08 dmillz25 ____ 13 4 2_47.0_ 100 4.0 _ 200 5.5 _ 31111.0 _ 42115.0__ 210 6.0__ 0001.0___ 42.5 ___ 89.5

 

09 (Consensus) _ 9 4 2_47.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0 ___ 42.5 ___ 89.5

 

09 ksammut ____12 4 1_48.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 31010.0 _ 31115.0__ 210 6.0__ 0001.0___ 41.0 ___ 89.0

09 AlaskaETC ___12 5 4_45.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 32211.0 _ 42214.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 44.0 ___ 89.0

 

11 Yoda _______ 10 4 2_49.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 200 7.0 _ 43113.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 39.5 ___ 88.5

11 Andyhb ______9 4 2_47.0_ 000 3.5 _ 210 5.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 41.5 ___ 88.5

11 ncforecaster89_9 4 1_46.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 42.5 ___ 88.5

14 Wannabehippie_9 5 1_45.0_ 000 3.5 _ 110 5.5 _ 31010.0 _ 42115.0__ 110 8.0__ 0001.0___ 43.0 ___ 88.0

15 Icebreaker5221_9 4 2_47.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 21113.0__ 110 8.0__ 0001.0___ 40.5 ___ 87.5

16 DonSutherland1_8 3 1_42.0_ 000 3.5 _ 000 5.5 _ 31010.0 _ 42115.0__ 00010.0__0001.0___ 45.0 ___ 87.0

17 Isotherm _____ 8 4 2_44.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 21110.0 _ 22112.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 41.5 ___ 85.5

18 wxmx ________ 8 4 1_43.0_ 100 4.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 22111.0 _ 22011.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 42.0 ___ 85.0

19 OHweather ____ 8 4 2_44.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 111 7.0__ 0001.0___ 40.5 ___ 84.5

PSUBlizzicane2007_7 4 2_40.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 22111.0 _ 21113.0__ 00010.0__0001.0___ 44.5 ___ 84.5

21 Mallow ______ 11 6 3_46.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 21110.0 _ 32213.0__ 220 4.0__ 1001.5___ 38.0 ___ 84.0

21 Tom ________  9 6 1_43.0_ 110 3.5 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 110 8.0__ 0001.0___ 41.0 ___ 84.0

 

NOAA mid-range__8.5 4.5 1 44.3_000 3.5_100 6.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 321 14.0__210 6.0__ 0001.0___ 39.5 ___ 83.8

 

23 Amped ______ 9 5 1_45.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 31111.0 _ 21012.0__ 220 4.0__ 0001.0___ 37.0 ___ 82.0

23 Isentropic Lift_13 6 1_43.0_ 210 3.0 _ 310 4.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 43113.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 39.0 ___ 82.0

25 Juliancolton ___8 3 0_40.0_ 100 4.0 _ 000 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32013.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 41.5 ___ 81.5

 

metalicwx366 ___ 10 7 4_40.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 32112.0 _ 33211.0__ 111 7.0__ 0001.0___ 40.5 ___ 80.5

hurricaneman _____7 4 1_39.0_ 110 3.5 _ 110 5.5 _ 110 7.0 _ 21113.0__ 00010.0__ 1001.5___ 40.5 ___ 79.5

N. of Pike _______12 5 3_47.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 53211.0__ 311 2.0__ 0001.0___ 32.5 ___ 79.5

Gawx ___________7 3 1_38.0_ 100 4.0 _ 000 5.5 _ 110 7.0 _ 21113.0__ 110 8.0 __ 0001.0___ 38.5 ___ 76.5

mackerel_sky _____8 2 0_38.0_ 000 3.5 _ 110 5.5 _ 200 7.0 _ 31014.0__ 200 7.0__ 0001.0___ 38.0 ___ 76.0

Hvward ________ 15 6 3_36.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 31010.0 _ 42214.0__ 321 0.0__ 1001.5___ 34.5 ___ 70.5

Ground Scouring __ 6 2 0_29.0_ 100 4.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 110 9.0 __ 00010.0__0001.0___ 39.0 ___ 68.0

 

Contest Normal __15 7 3_ 33.0_ 100 4.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 42111.0 _ 53112.0__ 321 0.0__ 0001.0___ 34.0 ___ 67.0

 

Absolute Humidity _ 5 2 2_26.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 111 8.0 _ 21113.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0 ___ 40.5 ___ 66.5

Avanthiatus _____16 12 6_00.0_ 110 3.5 _ 211 4.5 _ 32112.0 _ 442 9.0__ 331 0.0__ 2111.0___ 30.0 ___ 30.0

Roger Smith_____18 10 4_00.0_ 110 3.5 _ 210 5.0 _ 32112.0 _ 642 6.0__ 421 0.0__ 1001.5___ 28.0 ___ 28.0

 

________________________________________________________________________________

 

* mean includes all forecasts but not Contest Normal or consensus ...

ranks for top 25 (PSU tied 19th no room for a number) ... ranks for non-contestants are shown but they don't push your rank lower ...

NOAA mid-range refers to the middle of the range of values they gave for the season and from that I calculated some monthly forecasts but they didn't actually issue those ...

ties are listed in order of seasonal scores ... scroll back a few posts to see rankings for monthly totals only ...

 

I hope you enjoyed the contest if not the season, and see you in May-June 2016 for what I hope is a better season. Well done just about everyone on some quite accurate forecasts, our contest mean did very well, only Troy1234 managed to exceed it. Congrats to Troy1234 for winning the contest, and kudos to Chaser25973 for high score in the monthly forecasting. Worth noting that almost all of the monthly forecasts were made at start of season too.