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2015 NATL Tropical (hurricane season) forecast contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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After reviewing how the 2014 contest went, I have tweaked the format slightly so that there will not be any provisional scoring this year. Here's the simplified version of how to enter:

 

1. Enter your seasonal forecast (named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes) in this thread before 06z June 1st, with 1% per day reductions in score for late entries. This portion of the contest is worth 50% of the total score but will also be tabulated in order of finish.

 

2. If you want to enter a specific June forecast, add it to your seasonal. If you want to pre-set your monthly forecasts for the entire season, add them all. NOV-DEC will count as one forecast, otherwise it would be JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT and NOV-DEC. If you do not enter monthlies, you will be assigned provisional but fully-scoring estimates based on your seasonal weighted from this "contest normal" which is one more than last year simply due to the early season storm (Ana) already named.

 

__________________________ SEASON __ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ N-D

 

Adjusted Normal 1989-2014____ 15_7_3  __ 100__100__100__421__531__321__000

 

Your assigned monthlies will be adjusted from these as required, and you will see them in the table of forecasts -- if your June forecast does not match the provisional then the other months will not be adjusted, so your monthlies might not add up. Some of you will probably want to enter each month like last year, and you only need to do that if you don't want to use the already posted provisional.

 

If we get another named storm in May this will change but it won't affect the values from June to end of the year. It will just affect the seasonal total.

 

3. Then if you want to update your monthly forecasts to fit your own estimate, the table will change to reflect your forecasts, but future provisionals will continue to appear unchanged and your ongoing total may continue to be different from your seasonal as a result. There is no requirement for monthly entrants to match their seasonals and monthlies. There will not be any scoring adjustments available for seasonal updates, you can make them, but the contest will not award any different scores for them.

 

4. Seasonal forecasts are scored from a maximum of 50 points, reduced by the average of one point per error in each category plus that number squared. Example, you predict 11/6/2 and reality is 14/7/4. You then lose (3+9)/2 or 6 points for your named storms, (1+1)/2 or one point for your hurricanes and (2+4)/2 or 3 points for your major hurricanes. Your score is then 50-6-1-3 or 40.

 

5. Monthly forecasts are scored the same way as above from totals available of 4 (June), 6 (July), 12 (August), 16 (September), 10 (October) and 2 (Nov-Dec) except that June, July and Nov-Dec error reductions are divided by two (e.g., if the normal method would give you 3.0 out of 6.0 for July, the adjusted method gives you 4.5. Monthly forecasts that you submit are subject to 1% reductions for every 3h late (the deadline is 03z of 1st each month). These late penalties will be doubled as soon as a named storm exists in the month in question. The June deadline, however, may be extended slightly to encourage more entries unless named storms are imminent. Expect an absolute cutoff by end of June 3rd with penalties after that.

 

The only difference from last year (other than the wrinkle provided by Ana already happening) is that all entrants will be scored the same way, no "what if" tables and no reductions of the monthly provisionals. To some extent, this is like weighting the seasonal forecast 75% and the monthlies 25% since untended monthly forecasts will keep scoring about the same way that their parent seasonal forecast is scoring.

 

FAQ _ Should I include Ana in my seasonal forecast? __ Yes, you are basically forecasting the normal season plus the 1/0/0 that we already know about.

 

What if I forecast a range? __ The contest will take the median of your various ranges and score those only. If you want to give decimals, we'll score from those.

 

What if I report on a forecast from elsewhere? __ Unless you are involved in making that forecast, then we'll score it but it won't count in the standings. If you are involved in it and want to enter it, make it clear that it's your personal entry.

 

What month does each named storm belong to? __ Each named storm belongs to whatever month it was first named in (according to the NWS conventions as to time zones etc). Then whatever that storm goes on to do will belong to that same month. So for example, a tropical storm named on Aug 31 will count in the August forecast for all of its exploits as a hurricane or major hurricane in September. The timing of any given storm receiving a number but not a name is irrelevant to the contest.

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

Good luck. Defending champ is Stebo.  

 

 

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GaWx

GaWx

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Season 13/6/1

 

May 1/0/0

June 2/1/0

July 2/1/0

August 3/2/0

September 3/2/1

October 1/0/0

November 0/0/0

December 0/0/0

Isentropic,

Your # storms of adds to 12 rather than 13 when looking at your monthly breakdowns FYI.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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General note to all entrants: you can edit all forecasts to 06z June 1st as there will be no tabulation before then.

 

There is no requirement for monthlies to add up to match seasonals. Entrants can change monthly forecasts whenever they want before a month has begun.

 

Nov-Dec will be one forecast and it will be due on November 1st. A separate December forecast would not be worth much more than 0.3 points in the average season. If you separate them I will add them in the tables.

 

Whatever happens in May won't be scored. It just affects the seasonal total.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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That early May start suggests to my feeble mind that it could become an active season. So my entry is

 

18/10/4

 

May 1/0/0

 

June 1/1/0

July 2/1/0

Aug 3/2/1

Sep 6/4/2

Oct 4/2/1

Nov 1/0/0

 

I will keep reminding entrants (through the topic sub-head) that you can always amend monthly forecasts down the road, at least those months that have not then started.

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