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May 18th-23rd Severe Potential


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Odd that there were zero tornado reports from the spc site on the jacksboro-runaway bay storm that had massive rotation and several reports from at least news station of a tog. Pics this morning showing houses leveled as well in that area. Any reason why they didn't correct it?

 

SPC udpates those reports all the time, sometimes even a week or so afterwards. Had to update a map for 5/6 today with new report locations.

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SPC udpates those reports all the time, sometimes even a week or so afterwards. Had to update a map for 5/6 today with new report locations.

Yeah I figured that, just found it odd that the NWS issued a PDS warning on it and it's already been rated EF-1 yet doesn't have any report for it. I'm sure it will be corrected.

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post-342-0-02642600-1432186797_thumb.jpg

 

 

Turns out my friend from Jacksoro TX was correct... It was a EF0 

 

The sad part is that it was never tornado warned .. my friend was just walking in her door when this touched down on her intersection.. She had to quickly slam the door and take her daughter to the closet and they stayed there till it pass...

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thats some significant EF0 damage

 

Looks like all the homes I saw damage to were manufactured/mobile homes with a couple 2 story apartments(?) hit as well. However, the damage to them seems to indicate much more than 80 mph winds: 

 

post-384-0-33878200-1432226911_thumb.png

post-384-0-12657900-1432226959_thumb.png

(Images from: http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Mineral-Wells-Runaway-Bay-Tornadoes-Rated-EF-1-304449721.html)

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/4.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/5.html

 

If anything, you'd think EF1-EF2.

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E CO/far W KS looking fairly interesting tomorrow on the NAM, with modest CAPE, stronger mid/upper flow than further south and some really nice low level hodographs by 00z. Destabilization is obviously going to be the biggest question, but some High Plains shenanigans look quite likely if that takes place.

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E CO/far W KS looking fairly interesting tomorrow on the NAM, with modest CAPE, stronger mid/upper flow than further south and some really nice low level hodographs by 00z. Destabilization is obviously going to be the biggest question, but some High Plains shenanigans look quite likely if that takes place.

The RGEM is bullish on instability as well. It doesn't take a lot per climo. That seems to be the vicinity to go for Fri/Sat for a decent shot at catching something nice.

Climo mean parameters in 128 tornado cases for northeastern Colorado are as follows:

MLCAPE = 855 J/kg

LCL= 1567m

SCP<1

Effective shear = 30 knots

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I'm sure Ian and team (like myself) are hopeful for some Colorado upslope magic today. You wouldn't typically think a morning in the 40s with showers would lead to any afternoon severe threat. It's still a fairly marginal setup, but with cool temperatures aloft (lapse rates, instability), and both speed and directional shear, it won't take souped up dews to produce in this geographic location.

The NAM and now HRRR develop one or two discrete cells roughly in the vicinity of I-70 in eastern Colorado late this afternoon. Even if it's not a tornado, we'd be happy with a modest supercell.

The setup tomorrow gets a bit better as the thermodynamic environment should become somewhat more impressive during the afternoon.

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Dews pretty stagnant overnight after looking good late yday compared to some modeling. Should be able to still get them near 50 or so. HRRR does seem to like the Limon and east area. Might as we'll give it a go.. Busting on day 1 is easier to deal with than day 10. Moderately hopeful but minimal expectations.

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HRRR keeps marching a cell from near Limon right down 70. Maybe another behind it late day. Pretty good consistency. 50 dews nearing the border near Lamar now. Clearing working up from SE CO.

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I know this isn't the place for this but can anyone recommend a reputable storm chasing your company? First priority is safety, second is the education/evolution of storms etcetera.

I'd prefer a very knowledgable chaser experience and or degreed team

Live on OKC so shouldn't be an issue.

I can google it but figured many of you would have some good recommendations

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I know this isn't the place for this but can anyone recommend a reputable storm chasing your company? First priority is safety, second is the education/evolution of storms etcetera.

I'd prefer a very knowledgable chaser experience and or degreed team

Live on OKC so shouldn't be an issue.

I can google it but figured many of you would have some good recommendations

 

Tempest Tours might be a good fit for you. Very well-established and run by veterans, including Chuck Doswell.

 

Silver Lining Tours is owned/run by Roger Hill, who probably has the most success chasing year-to-year of anyone out there. He's not degreed and probably doesn't have quite the same scientific background, but he's a chase forecasting genius and probably leans towards the safer end of the spectrum these days.

 

Just make sure you understand that tornado chasing is a rather extreme pursuit, no matter who you go with. Even the safest groups have had close calls and harrowing incidents occasionally. I will say that with Tempest, I imagine you're at least unlikely to end up with every single side window completely busted out following a core punch, which I saw on another group's tour van after the Elmer tornado on May 16. :lol:

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Tempest Tours might be a good fit for you. Very well-established and run by veterans, including Chuck Doswell.

Silver Lining Tours is owned/run by Roger Hill, who probably has the most success chasing year-to-year of anyone out there. He's not degreed and probably doesn't have quite the same scientific background, but he's a chase forecasting genius and probably leans towards the safer end of the spectrum these days.

Just make sure you understand that tornado chasing is a rather extreme pursuit, no matter who you go with. Even the safest groups have had close calls and harrowing incidents occasionally. I will say that with Tempest, I imagine you're at least unlikely to end up with every single side window completely busted out following a core punch, which I saw on another group's tour van after the Elmer tornado on May 16. :lol:

Was going to ask the same question myself, living in dfw makes it relatively easy to go on one of those tours...

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Monday is starting to look like a potentially more widespread day on the NAM/GFS. There is the initial s/w trough/ULL swinging to the northeast with a possible threat over IA/MO and adjacent areas and a secondary s/w rotating through the flow on the southern end, perhaps bringing a threat to the S Plains (although forcing looks more nebulous in these areas). LLJ strength seems good, especially by 00z and barring overnight convection from Sunday, there should be a broad reservoir of strong instability to work with. Rather meridional flow in the upper levels due to the amplitude of the SE ridge may be an issue.

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A narrow axis of 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE will exist along the KS/CO and NE/CO borders tomorrow. There should be a zone of 30kt-50kt winds at 500mb in the same general area. I think at least isolated severe storms will develop along this axis. I would imagine that a few storm chasers will get wall cloud or tornado pictures in Colorado.

 

Today: 1000-1500 CAPE just south of I-70 in Colorado, and a few showers/thunderstorms developing, possibly with results comparable to tomorrow.

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Was going to ask the same question myself, living in dfw makes it relatively easy to go on one of those tours...

 

 

I know this isn't the place for this but can anyone recommend a reputable storm chasing your company? First priority is safety, second is the education/evolution of storms etcetera.

I'd prefer a very knowledgable chaser experience and or degreed team

Live on OKC so shouldn't be an issue.

I can google it but figured many of you would have some good recommendations

 

Twisted Sky Tours is also a good tour company that I'd recommend. 

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 521 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES

NORTHWEST OF POCASSET... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

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