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May 18th-23rd Severe Potential


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I believe the monster hail considering the near constant three-body scatter strikes emanating from that cell. As far as what is going on under the meso, I can only speculate, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was something big. Even without taking the highly deviant storm motion into account, SPC Mesoanalysis is showing enhanced low level shear very near where that cell is riding the outflow boundary. With the cell moving about 90* right of the Bunkers motion, effective helicities are for that cell are probably quite a bit higher even than what is shown.

 

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Indeed.

 

The radar is scanning at about 10-11kft at the storm's location and check out where the heaviest returns are. Pretty neat.

 

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The sad thing is.. Unless you saw it coming you had little warning because dfw TV stations will not go wall to wall under any circumstances in primetime.. No crawl or anything. I pray that their lack of info giving in primetime didn't just kill someone

 

A lot of people complaining that the tornado coverage is interrupting The Bachelorette, f*cking ridiculous.

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New warning on a cell with a VERY strong couplet approaching Jacksboro.

 

Yeah, seeing that couplet appear all of a sudden caught me off-guard somewhat. Really unfortunate that couplet is directly behind the hail core from another cell, the three-body scatter is messing with the dual-pol products behind it.

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I have never seen a confirmed tornado basically on top of a town and the news stations only breaking in during commercials. That's criminal. I guarantee they would not do that if there was a tornado in DFW proper.

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Saturday looks interesting on the 18Z GFS... SBCAPE/MUCAPE of 1000-2000J/KG, 500mb shear of 35-50kts in W KS/ NW OK, great low-level shear (30-40kts) and good turning in the lowest 0-3KM, 0-3KM SRH of 250-350, main problem at this point looks like lack of model agreement with GFS, and morning convection could AGAIN ruin destabilization. VBV won't be an issue at all this time basing off of the GFS, another issue is a unidirectional profile above 700mb... Once again, pessimism wins out and would pick a target south of the suspected main threat area. Like the last two (or three?) events. All this is really just off of the 18Z GFS verbatim if it verifies, but the EURO and CMC don't agree much at all and show more of a rain event.

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