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May 18th-23rd Severe Potential


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TOR out near Waxahachie TX for a cell that ramped briefly as it crossed I287 with a decent couplet but already weakening/cycling.

 

Storms going through the metroplex have taken on clear supercell characteristics, but mostly have not exhibited low level rotation, this one aside.

 

attachicon.gifwaxahachie_1.jpg

 

I guess law enforcement is confirming this touched down and there is at least one twitter pic of it (courtesy of Barbara Lane, repasted below) , though according to radar, after the couplet weakened a quite a bit.

 

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The 18Z GFS is looking decent for Saturday across W KS/NW OK fwiw... SBCAPE/MUCAPE of 1500-2000J/KG overlapped by 35-50kts of westerly bulk shear.. Good directional shear in the lowest 0-3KM, 200-350 0-3KM SRH, 30-40kts of low-level shear (per the DDC sounding at 00Z 5/24), 0-3KM EHI's of 3-5... Main issue looks like it will be (AGAIN) morning convection and a largely unidirectional profile above 700mb, however it does look like VBV won't be an issue at all per the GFS. But from the looks of it the ECMWF and CMC disagree with the GFS substantially... I'm going to be pessimistic really at this point, seems like picking a target well south of where the main threat is expected has been the best choice by far this year.

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Fortunate that this storm is over mainly rural land in SW TX -- It's dropping monster hail. Check out the area of 73 dbz returns at 25kft.

 

CwhZAPZ.png

 

I believe the monster hail considering the near constant three-body scatter strikes emanating from that cell. As far as what is going on under the meso, I can only speculate, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was something big. Even without taking the highly deviant storm motion into account, SPC Mesoanalysis is showing enhanced low level shear very near where that cell is riding the outflow boundary. With the cell moving about 90* right of the Bunkers motion, effective helicities are for that cell are probably quite a bit higher even than what is shown.

 

CFaB24OUEAAM5XY.jpg

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