PGM Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 **sarcasm** Man look at that string of intense Supercells across SW OK, in an environment characterized by MUCAPE of 2000J/KG, ML Lapse rates of 6.0, 0-1KM Shear of 5-10kts, 0-8KM shear of 45kts ESRH of 100m2/s2, all with a slow moving boundary with storm motions to the N or E at ~10mph. Not sure what that dude was really thinking last night... Nothing in that screams even low tornado probs really. Sorry but couldn't resist lol.Pretty sure this is my first post here in a year... I lurk a lot though and I feel this needs to be addressed. Imo the really scary thing is that this guy's followers are saying he is "right again". Right at what? This guy WAS calling for violent tornadoes, not "Sonic ice cube sized hail". I have had some issues with Facebook meteorologists in the past including with Aaron Tuttle. I have also had some issues with people who follow these amateur weather pages and constantly compliment the uneducated fools. People who do not have a vast understanding in weather should not be posting about it to half a million followers on social media! I don't have a degree, and you don't see me making absurd claims while presenting absurd evidence like this! I always tell people that the Norman NWS office is your best bet for a good forecast, not some goof. This situation completely reinforces my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Just saw a picture of the Pecos, TX area tornado from earlier today, looked a lot like the Hodges, TX tornado from 5/13/1989. Edit: https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/600460276446691329 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Definitely looks better than the other pic. Interesting.. wonder how it came together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Pretty sure this is my first post here in a year... I lurk a lot though and I feel this needs to be addressed. Imo the really scary thing is that this guy's followers are saying he is "right again". Right at what? This guy WAS calling for violent tornadoes, not "Sonic ice cube sized hail". I have had some issues with Facebook meteorologists in the past including with Aaron Tuttle. I have also had some issues with people who follow these amateur weather pages and constantly compliment the uneducated fools. People who do not have a vast understanding in weather should not be posting about it to half a million followers on social media! I don't have a degree, and you don't see me making absurd claims while presenting absurd evidence like this! I always tell people that the Norman NWS office is your best bet for a good forecast, not some goof. This situation completely reinforces my opinion. Well, I am definitely not a Tuttle-defender generally, but to be clear he does have a degree and worked at KOCO for 7 years and still does met stuff for the FAA. He also used a lot of conditional statements, too -- he didn't say there'd definitely be violent tornadoes. I suspect this was a case of him purposely generating hype to get downloads for his apps knowing he could wiggle his way out by saying he only said tornadoes were possible, etc. Not that that's any better (and probably is worse... To knowingly generate panic to get money), but I'm not convinced Aaron Tuttle is actually ignorant of such simple things as deep-layer shear, helicity, etc. This isn't the equivalent of the typical high school Facebook weather forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Well, I am definitely not a Tuttle-defender generally, but to be clear he does have a degree and worked at KOCO for 7 years and still does met stuff for the FAA. He also used a lot of conditional statements, too -- he didn't say there'd definitely be violent tornadoes. I suspect this was a case of him purposely generating hype to get downloads for his apps knowing he could wiggle his way out by saying he only said tornadoes were possible, etc. Not that that's any better (and probably is worse... To knowingly generate panic to get money), but I'm not convinced Aaron Tuttle is actually ignorant of such simple things as deep-layer shear, helicity, etc. This isn't the equivalent of the typical high school Facebook weather forecaster. He did outright state though that if storms developed that a tornado threat would accompany them, and he had just mentioned strong/violent tornadoes... For people that aren't like most on this board and have tremendous knowledge (I don't fit that category because I'm just learning) that spells out that he's saying that it will be a pretty BIG DAY for Central OK. That entire paragraph he wrote out was reckless, and he should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jameswx Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 I'm ready for the next trough. I'm tired of reading the "what's a TDS vs non-TDS signature, someone's forecast is crap, who should and shouldn't post here" BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 He did outright state though that if storms developed that a tornado threat would accompany them, and he had just mentioned strong/violent tornadoes... For people that aren't like most on this board and have tremendous knowledge (I don't fit that category because I'm just learning) that spells out that he's saying that it will be a pretty BIG DAY for Central OK. That entire paragraph he wrote out was reckless, and he should know better.Oh, I agree 100% and think what he did was problematic, especially in an area as sensitive to the subject as this one. I just refuse to believe he had zero idea what he was doing. I guess we'll never know. It certainly causes quite the stir in the meteorological community here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 I'm ready for the next trough. I'm tired of reading the "what's a TDS vs non-TDS signature, someone's forecast is crap, who should and shouldn't post here" BS. You have 16 posts and you want to lecture people on how to conduct themselves in severe threads? Who said anyone's forecast was crap? Newsflash: I was often criticized/berated heavily in my early time here as well, it's just the way it goes sometimes. You learn from it (or at least you should). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jameswx Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 You have 16 posts and you want to lecture people on how to conduct themselves in severe threads? Who said anyone's forecast was crap? Newsflash: I was often criticized/berated heavily in my early time here as well, it's just the way it goes sometimes. You learn from it (or at least you should). I'm not "lecturing" anyone. I'm sorry you took it that way. Just tired of the bickering and moaning.....especially during events. Can't a mod handle that kind of stuff and get rid of it? This is an awesome forum, and Andy, I have an incredible amount of respect for your thoughts and posts. You're truly talented and so are several other members here. You reference my 16 posts and maybe you think I'm some noob, but I'm not. I've lurked on this board for years and recently registered and have made a few posts. I've been chasing since 1998.....well before a lot of mobile technology. I have good knowledge of storm structure and behavior that many of the newer chasers don't. I've never been in it for fame or money (the only pic I've posted online is on my twitter profile). However, I'm not a good forecaster. I know enough to get by, but there are some real talented professionals and non-professionals in this forum that I have really appreciated over the years. I was out of line by my last post and I apologize. I will try to contribute in a more positive way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 You have 16 posts and you want to lecture people on how to conduct themselves in severe threads? Who said anyone's forecast was crap? Newsflash: I was often criticized/berated heavily in my early time here as well, it's just the way it goes sometimes. You learn from it (or at least you should). I'm not "lecturing" anyone. I'm sorry you took it that way. Just tired of the bickering and moaning.....especially during events. Can't a mod handle that kind of stuff and get rid of it? This is an awesome forum, and Andy, I have an incredible amount of respect for your thoughts and posts. You're truly talented and so are several other members here. You reference my 16 posts and maybe you think I'm some noob, but I'm not. I've lurked on this board for years and recently registered and have made a few posts. I've been chasing since 1998.....well before a lot of mobile technology. I have good knowledge of storm structure and behavior that many of the newer chasers don't. I've never been in it for fame or money (the only pic I've posted online is on my twitter profile). However, I'm not a good forecaster. I know enough to get by, but there are some real talented professionals and non-professionals in this forum that I have really appreciated over the years. I was out of line by my last post and I apologize. I will try to contribute in a more positive way. Speaking of a bunch of BS - please take it to PM. The last thread went downhill in a hurry - no need for this one to suffer the same fate. There used to be a Weenie Forum years ago back in the EasternWX era to talk about this stuff in an unmoderated form. Tomorrow has some severe potential but morning precipitation contamination along with a weak cap will probably ruin most of the 'fun' potential chase-wide. Honestly though it's great to see the Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling Plains, and Permian Basin getting much needed rain. The past two months have done more for drought recovery than the past five years combined. If the 7 Day WPC QPF is correct we'll likely see some major river flooding later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Speaking of a bunch of BS - please take it to PM. The last thread went downhill in a hurry - no need for this one to suffer the same fate. There used to be a Weenie Forum years ago back in the EasternWX era to talk about this stuff in an unmoderated form. Tomorrow has some severe potential but morning precipitation contamination along with a weak cap will probably ruin most of the 'fun' potential chase-wide. Honestly though it's great to see the Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling Plains, and Permian Basin getting much needed rain. The past two months have done more for drought recovery than the past five years combined. If the 7 Day WPC QPF is correct we'll likely see some major river flooding later this week. I am pretty sure Andy and james already said their peace and didn't need the extra commentary, just saying... As for tomorrow, I think the potential isn't that great over the Northern panhandle. The morning MCS looks pretty wide spread, and would probably be too hard to recover from up there. I do think it could put better chance of severe and a few tornadoes around I-20 from Midland to Abiline maybe up toward Lubbock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 I am pretty sure Andy and james already said their peace and didn't need the extra commentary, just saying... As for tomorrow, I think the potential isn't that great over the Northern panhandle. The morning MCS looks pretty wide spread, and would probably be too hard to recover from up there. I do think it could put better chance of severe and a few tornadoes around I-20 from Midland to Abilene maybe up toward Lubbock. I agree with you regarding the Panhandle play. Tomorrow's wind fields really aren't too shabby. 50 knots at 500 MB with a nice southeast low level jet at 850 MB. The hot zone may be wherever an outflow boundary sets up from morning convection or a differential heating zone. If we can get a sustained supercell to remain surface based it will probably drop a few decent TORs tomorrow. The question is if/where will the atmosphere recover enough to support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 I'll take this GFS run. Friday-Monday. Just like Memorial Day weekend is supposed to be. Edit: Tuesday too. Maybe storms forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Considering how much precipitation it is throwing out between now and 18Z tomorrow, the last few HRRR runs sure are maintaining more CAPE than is probably realistic in the Panhandle. I'm siding pretty strongly on the washed out/worked over camp, although this and other concerns have already been expressed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Considering how much precipitation it is throwing out between now and 18Z tomorrow, the last few HRRR runs sure are maintaining more CAPE than is probably realistic in the Panhandle. I'm siding pretty strongly on the washed out/worked over camp, although this and other concerns have already been expressed at this point.It's fairly unanimous with the guidance now, showing oddly/seemingly overdone air-mass recovery across the panhandle by mid to late afternoon. I must say, the forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM show decent instability coupled with considerable backing of winds in the low levels with some huge clockwise turning hodographs. I only have access to select HRRR soundings, but one 6z forecast pegged over 800 m2/s2 0-3km helicity at AMA. I agree that ultimately, MCS/convective overturning should mitigate the threat. However, if a pocket of stronger instability does materialize, an intense supercell could develop. The 6z fire wx NAM isn't out yet, but the 0z run showed a discrete cell with intense updraft helicity over Throckmorton County at 23z. (Hasn't that county been hit hard several times this month?) Just watch radar imagery and surface obs closely today. Something leaves me feeling a little uneasy about this setup, even if it could easily just not produce anything substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 It's fairly unanimous with the guidance now, showing oddly/seemingly overdone air-mass recovery across the panhandle by mid to late afternoon. What seems to be the case is that the early convection doesn't grow upscale into a large, cold-pool driven MCS on most guidance. This is somewhat supported by current convective trends with primarily a cellular/cluster mode dominating. Some upscale growth likely will occur, but it might be a question of whether it's far enough south to really eliminate much of the effective warm sector tomorrow. There also appears to be a slug of dry/decently warm air aloft that moves in behind this convection through the early/mid afternoon allowing for potential sunshine and associated destabilization, particularly evident on the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 What seems to be the case is that the early convection doesn't grow upscale into a large, cold-pool driven MCS on most guidance. This is somewhat supported by current convective trends with primarily a cellular/cluster mode dominating. Some upscale growth likely will occur, but it might be a question of whether it's far enough south to really eliminate much of the effective warm sector tomorrow. There also appears to be a slug of dry/decently warm air aloft that moves in behind this convection through the early/mid afternoon allowing for potential sunshine and associated destabilization, particularly evident on the RAP.There's also at least a temporarily stable environment in the wake of the convective blob from overnight - that's moving into central Texas. It shows up nicely on WV imagery. I'm not sure it persists through the morning, but high res model guidance was showing some struggles with handling its evolution. Will see if that hinders upscale growth as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Tornado watch issued for NW TX and SW/south-central OK. Environment later on is particularly interesting south of the warm front should any supercells become dominant, with very strong low-level SRH and modest instability. Upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints in place as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Rotation aloft on the supercell SW of Purcell is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Agree. Although the cell north of Childress crossed onto the cool side of the boundary it was rotating. Purcell storm could get real interesting; believe it is near the boundary. If it turns right, it locked onto the boundary - and the enhanced low level shear. For those who can't reach the said storm, new cells forming along the 287 corridor tracking toward the OFB could be interesting. Good luck and be safe! UPDATE: 18Z hi-res NAM has another 1-2 cells of note developing along the US-287 corridor and crossing the Red River. One has particularly impressive inflow at 925 mb between 22-01Z. Could be the beasts on 287 now (3:10 pm Central, 20Z). Just a model, but it is more explicit than HRRR output - which also pegs them with sig tor and 2-5km helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Dick McGowan reported a brief tornado just SW of Purcell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Wouldn't surprise me. That storm looking tornadic. Tornado warning coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Dick McGowan reported a brief tornado just SW of Purcell. Tornado warning on it. KWTV is live. http://www.news9.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EquusStorm Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Very suspicious storms near Dallas firing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Ellis County warned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 TOR out near Waxahachie TX for a cell that ramped briefly as it crossed I287 with a decent couplet but already weakening/cycling. Storms going through the metroplex have taken on clear supercell characteristics, but mostly have not exhibited low level rotation, this one aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Storm south of KFDR near Electra warrants close watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Storm south of KFDR near Electra warrants close watching.I'm on it, just hopped off I-44, heading up toward Grandfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 I'm on it, just hopped off I-44, heading up toward Grandfield. Tornado reported on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMR Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 4 tornado warnings in progress attm.. Impressive... Storm near red river looks the most promising as Andy said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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