Thundersnow12 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Thought I'd get this one rolling since our trip is out here for what looks like a string of solid days in a row in Texas off the dryline. Included tomorrow because I can see solid supercell potential and even a tornado or two in southwest TX with great instability and 60 dews up to the Pecos area coupled with enough bulk shear and great directional shear. As Brett said, Tuesday looks really good and Victor and I have been watching this day since the middle of last week, one of the best looking TX PH setups I can remember. Then I think we'll have more solid TX PH days with enough flow coming over a sloshing dryline as a better EML tries to develop by mid-week with a higher end type day possible as the trough finally ejects out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Soundings from the 12z NAM are absolutely nasty around AMA Tuesday afternoon/evening. GFS didn't look too bad either although it was lower on instability as per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Soundings from the 12z NAM are absolutely nasty around AMA Tuesday afternoon/evening. GFS didn't look too bad either although it was lower on instability as per usual. 18z NAM soundings are better for the 7-10pm Tues evening time period in AMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Some pretty solid soundings right up to the OK state line in the panhandle. Assuming the morning convection moves out and doesn't disrupt the environment too much, Tuesday could feature a few intense supercells. In fact, if morning storms can leave an outflow boundary, that would be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Almost 200 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE in that sounding, which is kind of absurd for the TX Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 00z NAM looks like it ramped up the SBCAPE Tuesday evening in the Texas Panhandle. 2500-3000+ J/kg at 00z. Might add that it clearly depicts a string of supercells along with this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Almost 200 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE in that soundings, which is kind of absurd for the TX Panhandle. Yeah maybe absurd for January. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Yeah maybe absurd for January. LOL 200 J/kg of 0-3km MLCAPE is good for any time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 The NAM and its 4 km nest have some really cold air wedging into the southern High Plains by tomorrow night into Tuesday. For god's sake, they both show upper 30s in NW KS during the possible event in the Panhandles at 00z Wed. That makes me very nervous, even though the setup looks like the best for the northern Panhandles in years taken verbatim right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 The NAM and its 4 km nest have some really cold air wedging into the southern High Plains by tomorrow night into Tuesday. For god's sake, they both show upper 30s in NW KS during the possible event in the Panhandles at 00z Wed. That makes me very nervous, even though the setup looks like the best for the northern Panhandles in years taken verbatim right now. Yep. I suspect the NAM is too slow in progressing that cold air down the front range. Am not thrilled about this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 To add to the not-thrilliness, the GFS and both NAMs have significant morning convection over the TX PH and the Caprock, just like the last couple systems. Looks like we're getting the greatest hits of both 2013 and 2015 wrapped into one system. Crumple it up and throw this one out. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Not to skip ahead but Friday has looked good and GFS ramps up the shear this run. Most runs show more than ample moisture into the ph and surrounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Just to clear things up, this is mostly going to be in Texas right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Talk about fear mongering. From Aaron Tuttle on FB, former KOCO met. There's some people around OKC who are worried because of him, at least on his FB page. Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman) 1 hr · Edited · Severe Weather Update (Tornadoes back Mon?): (Sun eve) I'm concerned about C OK tomorrow with a slow moving cold front moving through around 4-6 pm with peak daytime heating into the mid 80s. There's no CAP and about 4000+ CAPE. Directional wind shear is present although low level speed shear is weak. These high CAPE low shear scenarios when combined with a slow moving frontal boundary can lead to large and destructive tornadoes. The EF4/5 kind. I've seen it happen many times. This front is progged to move slowly south and the storm motion is to do the same with a slight SW drift. This is not a good combination. So what am I saying? Stay weather aware tomorrow afternoon near and along the I-40 corridor N/S by about 30 miles. Wherever that boundary is, storms that fire need to be watched very carefully. A couple of the hi-res models are trying to produce supercell storms in the OKC metro. If this happens, a tornado threat will accompany them. I'll update again tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 What the hell? Don't have anything else to say to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 What the hell? Don't have anything else to say to that... Don't worry, it only has over 3,000 shares so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Don't worry, it only has over 3,000 shares so far. Reinforces the idea that the biggest worries aren't the tornadoes, they are the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 the comment about slow moving frontal boundaries producing violent tornadoes was retarded. This will end up resulting in the "boy who cried wolf." The tornado potential tomorrow at best is non-zero across C OK... High cape/weak shear hardly ever produces violent tornadoes (from what I'm remembering). Crack pot TV mets lol. Wouldn't be terribly surprised to see a nice isolated supercell across W OK tomorrow, but won't produce anything more than large hail, some damaging winds, and **possibly** a tornado though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 It's so bad, even Kevin Martin disagrees with him. I guess this guy went off the deep end if KM is calling a hypecast crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 It's so bad, even Kevin Martin disagrees with him. I guess this guy went off the deep end if KM is calling a hypecast crazy. Not to go way off topic, but those two have a history, which is probably why Kevin is on his case. Aaron called Kevin out on his forecasts awhile back, and Kevin retaliated by accusing Aaron of being a child molester. So yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Weekend defined as Friday forward could be anywhere from Upslope Nation to Panhandle Magic - probably some of both. GFS does not rule out a traditional central Plains outbreak, but European and Canadian are not onboard with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Talk about fear mongering. From Aaron Tuttle on FB, former KOCO met. There's some people around OKC who are worried because of him, at least on his FB page. Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman) 1 hr · Edited · Severe Weather Update (Tornadoes back Mon?): (Sun eve) I'm concerned about C OK tomorrow with a slow moving cold front moving through around 4-6 pm with peak daytime heating into the mid 80s. There's no CAP and about 4000+ CAPE. Directional wind shear is present although low level speed shear is weak. These high CAPE low shear scenarios when combined with a slow moving frontal boundary can lead to large and destructive tornadoes. The EF4/5 kind. I've seen it happen many times. This front is progged to move slowly south and the storm motion is to do the same with a slight SW drift. This is not a good combination. So what am I saying? Stay weather aware tomorrow afternoon near and along the I-40 corridor N/S by about 30 miles. Wherever that boundary is, storms that fire need to be watched very carefully. A couple of the hi-res models are trying to produce supercell storms in the OKC metro. If this happens, a tornado threat will accompany them. I'll update again tomorrow morning. So this outlook graphic is inaccurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jameswx Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 So this outlook graphic is inaccurate? day1otlk_1630.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Tomorrow looks meh/marginal. NAM is still OK, but morning convection hurts and the overlap of favorable parameters is pretty small. Euro is decent with instability. GFS/RGEM are even less enthused. Probably a MRGL/low-end SLGT risk day shaping up in the Texas panhandle. May manage to get one decent supercell, but I wouldn't place the bets too high on that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Reliable report of a brief tornado with a supercell just southeast of Pecos, TX a few minutes ago. Saw some photos of 2"+ hail from the area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 This looks like what was reported. Eh. http://www.weatherstudios.com/latest-updates/2015/may/non-meso-tornado-texas/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 This looks like what was reported. Eh. http://www.weatherstudios.com/latest-updates/2015/may/non-meso-tornado-texas/ "Non-meso tornado" on "incredible supercell". Does not compute. Image is interesting. Looks like rotating inflow/scud in contact with the ground? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Yeah got me. Her description sounds like a non tornado but a number of ppl saw whatever it was. Storm looked quite high based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 **sarcasm** Man look at that string of intense Supercells across SW OK, in an environment characterized by MUCAPE of 2000J/KG, ML Lapse rates of 6.0, 0-1KM Shear of 5-10kts, 0-8KM shear of 45kts ESRH of 100m2/s2, all with a slow moving boundary with storm motions to the N or E at ~10mph. Not sure what that dude was really thinking last night... Nothing in that screams even low tornado probs really. Sorry but couldn't resist lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I found out something a little interesting while looking at the satellite background/google maps. The storm is moving near the BF Goodrich test track near Coyanosa, That sort of looks like alien crop circles if you don't zoom in enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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