RyanDe680 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Its been out for two days now, here's the last update from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Its not a lock for severe locally, but i like the scenario painted by the 12z 4k... It looks like a decaying line at the mississippi at 12z 18MAY provides an OFB for the 2500 to 3000 CAPE over LOT by 18z to 21z... Getting a bit bullish for Sunday....and not sleeping on some random action Saturday as well...although not expecting a ton of action there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 15, 2015 Author Share Posted May 15, 2015 The riding factor too is that whatever is left over that passes through LOT late Saturday night if into Sunday morning, what effect that may have on destablizing the atmosphere Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 There's been some weird looking forecast soundings for Sunday the last few days. Veer-back over much of the instability axis. If instability can build up enough the strength of the wind fields should organize storms quite nicely. Gonna be one of those wait and see till the morning of the event kind of deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Models are having issues with developing convection Sunday afternoon south of the IA/MN border, probably due to lack of surface convergence. Looking like this could be a non-event except for areas north of a MSP to Green Bay line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Models are having issues with developing convection Sunday afternoon south of the IA/MN border, probably due to lack of surface convergence. Looking like this could be a non-event except for areas north of a MSP to Green Bay line. Pretty substantial punch of mid-level dry air over Iowa/Illinois as well. The NAM keeps low level winds fairly backed across C MN, at least more so than the GFS/Euro. Still have my doubts on how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Large enhanced area on the new day 2 update. CURRENTLY...IT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT INSOLATION BENEATH ANEVOLVING SLOT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ACORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY LATE SUNDAYAFTERNOON...IF NOT EARLIER. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITHTHE PIVOTING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION OVERSPREADS THE SURFACE WINDSHIFT/DRYLINE...STORM INITIATION SHOULD ENSUE...PERHAPS FIRST ACROSSEAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...BEFOREADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOISINTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO INCLUDE DISCRETESUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDGUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES ISPOSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ACROSS EASTCENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Large enhanced area on the new day 2 update. Coincides with an enhanced belt of shear on the NAM with a line of broken supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Large enhanced area on the new day 2 update. You would think with talk of possible strong tornadoes, they would have added a hatched area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Coincides with an enhanced belt of shear on the NAM with a line of broken supercells. You would think with talk of possible strong tornadoes, they would have added a hatched area as well. I'm a little surprised by the wording since the NAM is on its own with the enhanced tornado potential. GFS/Euro solution would likely lead to a lower ceiling tomorrow. In my mind, there is still lots of uncertainty with tomorrow's setup. 4km NAM btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 I'm a little surprised by the wording since the NAM is on its own with the enhanced tornado potential. GFS/Euro solution would likely lead to a lower ceiling tomorrow. In my mind, there is still lots of uncertainty with tomorrow's setup. 4km NAM btw... The GFS and Euro are both have been underdoing instability on all events this year, which will be a huge factor if the NAM is going to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 The GFS and Euro are both have been underdoing instability on all events this year, which will be a huge factor if the NAM is going to be correct. Not to mention the pronounced backed flow the NAM has been showing. Based on that SPC discussion they seem to be leaning on this type of scenario unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Not to mention the pronounced backed flow the NAM has been showing. Based on that SPC discussion they seem to be leaning on this type of scenario unfolding. Yeah the surface wind field of the gfs doesn't make sense which greatly weakens wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Some crap lifting north..looks just west of here... getting very dark to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 NAM continues to show backed flow along with some higher resolution guidance as compared to the GFS, which obviously increases the low level shear. High res models want to hint at some possibly isolated convection in the late afternoon/evening hours in NW IL.4km NAM seems bullish on the instability with less convection beforehand allowing less contamination of the lapse rates. Even picking a sounding around the Dixon area ~00Z on the NAM has over 2000 j/kg of CAPE 200+ helicities in a spot of 50kts of bulk shear. Not anything ridiculous but a good env. nonetheless. I like the low level lapse rates and low LCLs as well, however, the flow begins backing a little starting around 650mb (if you only focus on the NAM), and the runs have been rather consistent with it.Regardless, it'll be interesting to see how this evolves tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 SPC dropped the enhanced area from IL but left it in for se MN/sw WI on the new day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Solid, low overcast here this morning. Probably a better set up for severe to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Low level clouds hauling arse north....a set up i like seeing the morning of potential days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Solid, low overcast here this morning. Probably a better set up for severe to the west. Nice clearing is headed towards you all's direction in time for peak heating. You'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Really don't like where today is heading. Once the dry punch moves in winds veer to the SSW and the dew points fall into the 50's. Also think things will get messy quick. Yesterday will likely end up the better tornado day over MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Nice clearing is headed towards you all's direction in time for peak heating. You'll be fine. Yeah getting some sun now. 65°/63° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Band of light storms about to move through the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 3k cape SW of LOT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Nice clearing pocket out your way Gilbert. Looks like some CU popping in north central IL on the satellite image above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 This mid-latitude rain band, at least in this depiction looks like a giant version of a supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Just put down 55 lbs of Weed & Feed..... Popcorn showers firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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