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Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion


Quincy
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Zack, I hope you're chasing tomorrow (or at least working at the office), could be a pretty significant event.

 

Sorry... somehow missed this! I was working a warning desk. I was mainly warning the QLCS later in the event. I got in right as Killdeer was getting smoked by huge hail in 75 mph winds. That storm created so much damage in Killdeer. Was a little surprised everything lined out so quickly and the tornado threat didn't materialize. 

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This report is just WOW

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
750 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW MEADE             37.28N 100.36W
07/15/2016  M117 MPH         MEADE              KS   AWOS

            REPORT WAS FROM THE MEADE AIRPORT.

 

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33 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I wonder if any storm chasers will get terrific pics of the tornado warned storm 75 mi east of Fort Collins.

 

Been watching the huge anvil top from here for a while now...awesomely isolated for most of its life.

 

CSU-CHILL radars been scanning it, got some dope RHIs

 

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* AT 745 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING 10 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF NEW RAYMER. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
  FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.


---

My place has had only a small fraction of that 2" since June 1st. New Raymer isn't that far away.

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On 7/31/2016 at 9:57 PM, andyhb said:

Wednesday might an interesting day in ND and perhaps the southern Prairie provinces. Don't see too many shortwaves with 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streaks in August.

Looks like a day with some real potential. If we can get sufficient clearing and the NAM forecast dewpoints the environment/kinematics will be impressive. Would not be surprised if we end up with an enhanced.

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The SPC 06z day-1 outlook has an Enhanced outlook for eastern North Dakota (tomorrow, 8/3).  There should be an area of North Dakota where SRH will be at least 250 m2/s2, along with CAPE of 3000 J/kg + and 0-6 km shear values of 30-40kt.

 

Quote

 A MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-45 KT WLY 0-6 KM
   SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE. PRIMARY
   THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF A FEW
   LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BEFORE ACTIVITY
   EVOLVES INTO LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS 

 

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On 8/2/2016 at 8:16 AM, ZackH said:

Looks like a day with some real potential. If we can get sufficient clearing and the NAM forecast dewpoints the environment/kinematics will be impressive. Would not be surprised if we end up with an enhanced.

Well that verified nicely.

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11 hours ago, andyhb said:

Well that verified nicely.

Was quite a fun day... did the forecast in the morning and went chasing in the evening. Missed the biggie tornado as it was just too far, but did catch the tornado southwest of Wawrick, ND from a distance... also watched it rope out. Just got crappy cell phone pics as it was so far and I just had my wide angle lens. Quincy was quite a bit closer from his pics I saw on Twitter. Still though, the rest of the day provided some of the most photogenic storms/landscapes I've seen in quite a while. Also, watching the updrafts from new cells going up and breaking the cap yesterday was something to behold. I'm not sure if I've ever seen development that rapidly visually. 

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This evening was much more exciting than I expected. Rope tornado/waterspout on Lake Manawa just a few miles away from where I live currently (Council Bluffs) so I bolted out and got to watch what I'm considering my first in-person tornado. ^_^ People who live near the lake also mention fish being found in their yards, unsurprisingly. Pics from the driveway before I left and recorded the rest on video.

H81klbx.jpg

ihgUz1h.jpg

Few videos also from Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/wowt6news/videos/10154351752682086/

https://www.facebook.com/kenny.neelon/videos/10154509112459430/

https://www.facebook.com/leopoldo.willox/videos/10210163062983199/

 

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On 8/4/2016 at 6:52 AM, ZackH said:

Was quite a fun day... did the forecast in the morning and went chasing in the evening. Missed the biggie tornado as it was just too far, but did catch the tornado southwest of Wawrick, ND from a distance... also watched it rope out. Just got crappy cell phone pics as it was so far and I just had my wide angle lens. Quincy was quite a bit closer from his pics I saw on Twitter. Still though, the rest of the day provided some of the most photogenic storms/landscapes I've seen in quite a while. Also, watching the updrafts from new cells going up and breaking the cap yesterday was something to behold. I'm not sure if I've ever seen development that rapidly visually. 

I wasn't that close either. The road network was sloppy (combination of iffy roads and gaps between turns) I was directly under the initial funnel cloud, but had to play catchup once the tornado began.

I also have a lack of higher-resolution photos, as I mainly used my iPhone. Here are a few and some video:

20160803b.jpg

aug3a.jpg

160803_st_b.jpg

160803_st_a.jpg

Ranks among some of the best structure I've seen this year too...

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More fun in the Dakotas last night, this time in northwestern South Dakota.

A significant hail-producing supercell (reportedly up to 4 inches in diameter) crossed with northwestern South Dakota. Although the storm was clearly rotating and had a relatively low base, structure and mammatus went on to be the main show.
160809a_st.jpg

Additional storms popped up and the one that became the most photogenic, next, was a cell on the southern flank of the activity:
twitter2.jpg

Here is roughly an hour's worth of video footage condensed into less than four minutes at 64x actual speed:

 

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Those are some great pictures, Quincy!  In the severe weather game I am playing on a different forum, I picked Buffalo SD, and I got some points for hail. You took pictures of the exact cell that gave me points. I continued to watch the radar after the storms passed by my zone. There must have been some horrendous 2 to 3" per hour rain rates, along with some areas of hail and wind, as the storm complex continued eastward. It looked more like a bow echo later on. There was a tornado warning with a discrete supercell west of Aberdeen, but I don't believe that resulted in a tornado.

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