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Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion


Quincy
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I was on that Amarillo storm for seemingly ever. It spat out a few funnels early on, then reorganized and eventually produced a tornado right in front of me.

 

The contrast was low and lighting was poor, but it's the best I could manage.

post-533-0-18808800-1465882036_thumb.jpg

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Nice work Quincy! Looking back at my Colorado post, I kind of brushed over the main outflow boundary buried south (in West Texas). Subtle other boundary lifted north for the Trinidad TOR. However it was the main OFB (farther south) from the Oklahoma MCS that lifted north through AMA. With enough upper air support, and a responding LLJ, enjoy Texas Panhandle magic.

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Unreal the amount of severe weather up in Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas for this season. Another enhanced risk on the docket for today

it's actually been a pretty quiet up here thus far honestly.

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I'd definitely be chasing ND on Friday if I was out there. Moderate WSW flow aloft with strong instability and a well developed southerly LLJ feeding low 70s dewpoints into the area on both the GFS and NAM. Seems a couple of impulses ejecting ahead of the main upper low could provide enough forcing for ascent for CI.

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I'd definitely be chasing ND on Friday if I was out there. Moderate WSW flow aloft with strong instability and a well developed southerly LLJ feeding low 70s dewpoints into the area on both the GFS and NAM. Seems a couple of impulses ejecting ahead of the main upper low could provide enough forcing for ascent for CI.

I'm planning on it. A bit iffy with initiation, but can probably get something to go up in that environment. For those not familiar with the area, there's still daylight until at least 10 p.m. this time of the year, even later than that as you go north, so there's a good window...

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I'm considering making the drive up to North Dakota for Friday's setup - but I'm still iffy based on the potential for things to be north of the border and iffy convective initiation potential. Its a 13-14 hour drive up to Grand Forks from Norman so I'll have to decide by about 8 AM this morning to get in position. 

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I'd definitely be chasing ND on Friday if I was out there. Moderate WSW flow aloft with strong instability and a well developed southerly LLJ feeding low 70s dewpoints into the area on both the GFS and NAM. Seems a couple of impulses ejecting ahead of the main upper low could provide enough forcing for ascent for CI.

Me too :( but I will be working instead. Be looking for my warnings!

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I'm planning on it. A bit iffy with initiation, but can probably get something to go up in that environment. For those not familiar with the area, there's still daylight until at least 10 p.m. this time of the year, even later than that as you go north, so there's a good window...

Def call us if you see anything interesting! Spotter network reports don't always get through to us. And daylight till about 10:30 now

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Pretty decently sized ENH risk/30% hatched for tomorrow nearly centered on the Twin Cities. 12z WRF-ARW/NMMB were pretty bullish with a few supercells across that area in the late afternoon, perhaps tracking near the warm front and its enhanced low level SRH.

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Pretty decently sized ENH risk/30% hatched for tomorrow nearly centered on the Twin Cities. 12z WRF-ARW/NMMB were pretty bullish with a few supercells across that area in the late afternoon, perhaps tracking near the warm front and its enhanced low level SRH.

 

Just posted on the Minnesota forecaster site that chances of a tornado seems to be increasing for the Twin Cities metro area.

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There will be 5000-6500 J/kg of CAPE in southern Minnesota tomorrow, along with 30-40 kt of shear and some areas of 200-300 m2/s2 of SRH. If storms develop near this region, there would bring about a pretty high chance of large hail for any cell that develops, and this is also conducive for tornadoes and wind damage.

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Interesting article by Ian Livingston (a member of this forum,) about NWS Severe Warnings. Discusses: zero-population warnings, millions-population warnings, statistics of warnings vs. population, timeline of warnings throughout 2014-2016. Number of short-fuse warnings per CWA.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/07/07/what-the-national-weather-service-social-media-warning-stream-has-shown-us/

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