jojo762 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 91/76 at TOP right now, pretty juicy to say the least. H85 DP's of 20C right now just west of TOP according to mesoanalysis too. Maybe a tad high given that the H85 DP on the 19Z KTOP RAOB was aoa 12.2C and it currently shows it at 17C, but also there appears to be moisture transport of 20m/s, so its not out of the question I suppose... Juicy at and above the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 That giant supercell west of SLN has just sat there for over an hour despite moving "30mph" to the northeast according to the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 Cap winning out via TOP 00z sounding. Limited instability/poor low-level thermal profile at OAX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Looks like a cluster of cells trying to consolidate near Tecumseh, NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 TOG SW of Auburn, NE per chaser. Not TW'd yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 TOG SW of Auburn, NE per chaser. Not TW'd yet. Quincy is on that storm and he said nothing confirmed yet, did have a funnel cloud/rotating wall cloud though. Edit: Nvm, just confirmed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Quincy is on that storm and he said nothing confirmed yet, did have a funnel cloud/rotating wall cloud though. Edit: Nvm, just confirmed it. Is Quincy Kelly Williamson on TVN? They are reporting TOG as well, and they are usually really reliable with confirmed TOG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 There's a pic of it, gimme a few and I'll get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Is Quincy Kelly Williamson on TVN? They are reporting TOG as well, and they are usually really reliable with confirmed TOG. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 Tornado touched down right around 9:00 just east of Elk Creek. I had a visual on it by 9:01 (wooded area). Began roping out and lifted at 9:11 p.m. 8 SE Elk Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Tornado touched down right around 9:00 just east of Elk Creek. I had a visual on it by 9:01 (wooded area). Began roping out and lifted at 9:11 p.m. 8 SE Elk Creek. Radar at the time of Quincy's report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2015 Author Share Posted August 9, 2015 SPC going with higher confidence today is a potential tornado threat across South Dakota and adjacent Nebraska. Although instability and moisture return will not be nearly as favorable as yesterday, the overall timing with respect to peak heating and coverage of convective initiation should result in several strong to severe thunderstorms. Forcing will be more focused with water vapor imagery showing a shortwave through moving east through Montana. Mid level temperatures are cooler, so capping is not a concern. Convection allowing model solutions include thunderstorms developing by midday to early afternoon. Combine the aforementioned setup with a weak surface low lingering across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska and the locally backed flow could support a few tornadoes. HRRR has fluctuated a bit with respect to exact placement, however it has consistently showed convective initiation across South Dakota with at least a few more robust looking semi-discrete storms on the southern flank of the activity. ...SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND NWRN IA... A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S F EXTENDS NWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN PARTS OF SD AND NEB. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH SUBSEQUENT POCKETS OF STRONGER ADIABATIC HEATING AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS /35-45 KT AT 500 MB/ COUPLED WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME AS THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO A MORE NWLY COMPONENT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT SPREADING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND POSSIBLY NWRN IA BY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND AIR MASS STABILIZATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 Nice looking supercell (tornado warned) in far northwestern Minnesota. There were several reports earlier of baseball sized hail, including a 3" hail report out of Roseau, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 At least as of right now... A Seemingly disappointing period is coming mid-week for the central plains and Mid-west. Very rare to get a 50-70kt H5 trough to dig this far south in late summer... Doesn't seem to render much in the way of severe weather of severe weather though.. Likely from lack of instability due to cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 Mid-level lapse rates are just awful tomorrow. One of several mitigating factors. I do think that eastern Kansas to perhaps far southeastern Nebraska has a conditional risk for something interesting, severe-wise. The NAM is trying to keep the low-levels a bit backed, which would be more favorable than the typical cold frontal passage. Even with that said, storm mode and convection evolution looks rather messy across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The threat on the weekend over the N Plains towards the Upper MS Valley might be thread worthy as we get closer. Seems like another anomalously strong trough (00z Euro had an 80 kt 500 mb max with this thing) will be traversing that area come Sat-Sun with potentially a sub 1000 mb surface low and a strong LLJ response. Moisture will have recovered in all likelihood over a large area by that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 7.50" of rain measured in Omaha. That's gotta flood something. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 1119 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1117 AM HEAVY RAIN OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W 08/18/2015 M7.50 INCH DOUGLAS NE PUBLIC MEASURED 7.5 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT NEAR I680 AND PACIFIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 SPC has upgraded the day 2 outlook to enhanced for Minnesota/Iowa including the Twin Cities. The 18z NAM predicts around 300 m2/s2 of SRH tomorrow at 21z in the enhanced risk area. ...UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER MO VALLEY... HAVE UPGRADED/EXPANDED SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND A CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR INITIAL MIX OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BECOME A PREDOMINANT DAMAGING WIND RISK IN MN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/MESOVORTEX STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Nice small-scale bow moving through Northern OK right now. Alva's mesonet site gusted to 78 mph at 8:30...and then to 78 mph again at 8:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Looking alright. Got some friends targetting Omaha this aft. First severe outbreak in a while for the region. Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 SPC has upgraded the day 2 outlook to enhanced for Minnesota/Iowa including the Twin Cities. The 18z NAM predicts around 300 m2/s2 of SRH tomorrow at 21z in the enhanced risk area. anyone with input on the severe potential for MN, please chime in. I have family/friends at a NHRA event at Brainerd International Raceway this weekend & was wondering if I'm being too hyper-nervous about severe potential for that area. There's a lot of campers there in tents, RVs, etc & drinking, etc... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html many thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Cypress, you may also want to read the Lakes/Ohio Valley severe thread, covering basically the same thing today. Hopefully that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Well this got messy fast. NE and IA already looks like a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Storm just east of Omaha looks the best chance at some semi discrete cell action and it's in a prime spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Well this got messy fast. NE and IA already looks like a bust.It 2015'd itself. Squalled out quick and didn't get any discrete action. Man, this year really bites severe wise. Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 It 2015'd itself. Squalled out quick and didn't get any discrete action. Man, this year really bites severe wise. Sent from my GT-N8010 Good ol' 2015 Oh, you have a good setup for some discrete, chasable storms? Have some junk convection. Oh, there's no junk convection? Have yourself a fat, messy MCS without a single SVR warning on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 Well this got messy fast. NE and IA already looks like a bust. One of the biggest flops of the year, I'd say. I don't think the models handled it all that badly. The HRRR was pretty much onboard with storms merging into a massive line fairly quickly. The parameters weren't off the charts either, so I'm not sure a 10% tornado threat over such a large area was warranted. Only two severe reports, period, north of Omaha. One in Minnesota and one in North Dakota. A prime example of #2015ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Heaviest rain since mid-June at my place now. Good to finally see some water coming into the ground again. The landscape here is brown and yellow as can be after the last two and a half months of almost total dryness. Barton Creek's station jumped from almost nothing to 0.53" in 20 minutes. After the massive flooding in May/June on almost all the area creeks, they're about dry as a bone now. Barely a trickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Today could be a pleasant surprise in parts of Kansas, if one enjoys severe weather. Agree with SPC on the big hail threat, but a brief rope or two may spin up too. Small scale set-up, enhanced by an outflow boundary OFB, was not really apparent until this morning. Dewpoints of 60 degrees are forecast to make it back to the intersection of the OFB and sagging synoptic front in west-central Kansas before mixing back out slightly. Still better moisture may be found in north-central Kansas where it won't mix out as much. Upper level winds are seasonable, and enough. LLJ has a slight response to subtle short-wave coming out of the Rockies on water vapor images. Should at least start out discrete in Kansas this afternoon. I'd favor the one or two OFB storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 hail and wind reports in Kansas and Nebraska yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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