Chinook Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I also placed this post over on Stormtrack: FYI to anyone chasing today in ND or Canada. The KMBX radar is down and has been down all week. The part was supposed to be here Monday but it still hasn't arrived. The new estimate from the Air Force Base is now tomorrow. The good news is that we have the radar in stand by mode and will be able put it operational when the event starts. There's no telling how long it will last without the new part, however. But we cannot break it further by trying it tonight. If you are chasing in the area and the radar goes out, we will need reliable spotter reports more than ever! I think I can speak for the GFK office in that regard as well. Thanks! Looks like they got it fixed. KMBX is detecting a severe thunderstorm right now! I am back in mid-Iowa. I could make tomorrow a storm chasing day in Nebraska, but I probably won't. CAPE will be very high along my travels on I-80 tomorrow, but I think storms may be very late in the day, such as at 03z. I hope to be done with the trip by 9:00 mountain time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Looks like they got it fixed. KMBX is detecting a severe thunderstorm right now! I am back in mid-Iowa. I could make tomorrow a storm chasing day in Nebraska, but I probably won't. CAPE will be very high along my travels on I-80 tomorrow, but I think storms may be very late in the day, such as at 03z. I hope to be done with the trip by 9:00 mountain time. No not fixed... We just had it up because they AFB guys had a temp fix that may or may not have failed. Thus far it has held firm but after the event it will be shut down and properly repaired tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 tornado reported in eastern South Dakota with this supercell. Sanborn/Beadle counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 SD proving why it is the best again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 SD proving why it is the best again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Very strong couplet NW of Fedora. TDS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Environment is pretty nasty INVOF this cell. Cone tornado near Artesian recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 2 strong couplets now, one east, one west of Vilas, SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Some places that I drove through today on my 570 mile trek: Lincoln NE made it up to 99 with dew point of 75 this afternoon. heat index of 111.9F Gothenburg NE is now getting dumped on with a severe thunderstorm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 The NAM is painting a fun active night at work Monday night in eastern MT and into ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Supercell developing near Long Lake, SD might be able to do something if it can right turn and interact with the OFB to its south. Edit: AT 448 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LEOLA...OR 22 MILES NORTH OF IPSWICH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 444 PM...A STORM CHASER REPORTED TORNADO ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEOLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Starting to grow really concerned about western North Dakota Monday afternoon and night. The parameter space along the warm front near the triple point is fairly impressive. In this area it looks like discrete supercells will be possible during the afternoon and then it looks possible that a large destructive MCS could race across central ND overnight along the anomalously strong cold front. Capping could help to really enhance this event. If the NAM solution is close to reality I am very interested to see how SPC evolves in the outlooks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 And now I'm even more concerned since the guys at the Air Force base still cannot figure out exactly what is wrong with the Minot radar. We will still have it available in standby mode, and will be able to turn it on when the storms start but it's impossible to say how long it will work. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 There is a severe thunderstorm watch for WY/SD/MT, and a few isolated severe storms starting to pop up. There is almost a dryline pushing eastward in Wyoming, although this isn't really the time of year for drylines. There is 40-50kt of 0-6km shear in Wyoming and Montatna now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Large, multiple vortex tornado in progress in SW Manitoba near Melita currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 BTW, good on whoever got the MBX radar up and running, offering much better looks at this supercell than using the Canadian radars in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 that is a pretty massive storm in Mantioba. I think it is developing a new circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Earlier in MB. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Facebook post from a storm chaser who was on this tornado states that asphalt was scoured from a road by the tornado. Similar report from Reed Timmer. https://www.facebook.com/GregJohnsonTornadoHunter/posts/995835310447136?hc_location=ufi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Next in line for this year's list of tornadoes that have produced insane motion... http://youtu.be/T3ymPt91G14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Next in line for this year's list of tornadoes that have produced insane motion... http://youtu.be/T3ymPt91G14 Awesome tornado. Another thing you can take from the video is to never trust Reed Timmer's judgement in close proximity to tornadoes. Even if he says, "I promise!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Awesome tornado. Another thing you can take from the video is to never trust Reed Timmer's judgement in close proximity to tornadoes. Even if he says, "I promise!" From about 5:00 onward I'd say it reminds me of El Reno '13. Crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 7, 2015 Author Share Posted August 7, 2015 Not surprised that the SPC toned up the wording a bit for day 2. Still some mixed signals, but a few signs are there for a potentially enhanced severe weather threat. Both the NAM and GFS show enlarged hodographs and considerable shear, including in the low levels, from far eastern Nebraska into west-central/southwestern Iowa, coinciding with strong instability. Some red flags/uncertainties arise from the high PW values forecast, some warming in the mid-levels, attributing to initially modest mid-level lapse rates and storm mode. While the 4km NAM is actually late with renewed storm development, the GFS shows more of a mass of convection developing over Iowa. I would suspect that the storm model will be fairly messy and if any semi-discrete or discrete storms do fire, they would be HP and merge relatively quickly. Nonetheless, a tornado threat may exist, especially if any storms can fire in the vicinity of strong low-level shear, perhaps near any lingering outflow boundaries from early-day convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 These types of events with subtle waves cresting a ridge and neutral/even rising heights during the day are always tricky. I'd lean more towards the messy idea although the dryline does seem to be available for convective initiation this time, which is often the downfall of these kinds of setups where everything south of the warm front is capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Potentially localized big day in SE NE/ NE KS today... SPC is mildly excited as well, but there is uncertainty regarding CI later this afternoon/evening due to the massive MCS encompassing much of eastern Nebraska and Northern Kansas attm. An impressive parameter space will likely exist on the warm side of the boundary evidenced by the the 00Z 12NAM forecast sounding below from Falls City, NE at 00z/ Sunday... ALSO... The 06Z D1SWO from SPC... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015VALID 081200Z - 091200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MO VALLEY......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS BLACK HILLS AREA......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS N-CNTRL STATES......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST STATES......SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURIVALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORNADOES...VERY LARGEHAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVEREWINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY A FEW STORM CLUSTERS OVER THE NORTHERN ANDCENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING....LOWER MO VALLEY AREA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTTORNADO SETUP ACROSS A LOCALIZED PORTION OF SERN NEB TO SWRN IAWHERE A 10 SIG TOR PROBABILITY WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS OUTLOOK. BUTWITH PREDICTABILITY RESIDING PREDOMINATELY ON THE MESO-BETASCALE...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE DELINEATION OF ANENHANCED RISK PROBABILITY.ONGOING MCS CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS SHOULD BE IN ADECAYING STATE AT 12Z THIS MORNING. REMNANT MCV IS PROGGED TO SHIFTE THIS MORNING OVER IA AND THEN DAMPEN OVER THE MIDWEST. GUIDANCE ISHIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH A LACK OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV PERHAPS DUE TO THEFEATURE OUTPACING THE BUOYANT MOIST SECTOR CURRENTLY ALONG THE MSRIVER WWD. THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR RENEWED TSTMDEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MOVALLEY WHERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED ON THE SRNEDGE OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVERAGE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE DECAYINGMCS. A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A PLUME OFMODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OFSTRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG.UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST OVER THE TIMING OF TSTM INITIATION GIVENCAPPING CONCERNS WITH LARGELY 700-MB SWLYS MAINTAINING WAA. SOMECAMS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET AS THELLJ INTENSIFIES AND PROVIDES NECESSARY FORCED ASCENT. OTHER GUIDANCEINDICATES LATE AFTERNOON INITIATION PERHAPS AIDED BY A SUBTLEMID-LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SHOULD THISOCCUR...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH ALONG THE EARLY-DAY OUTFLOWBOUNDARY/RESULTANT EFFECTIVE FRONT COULD FAVOR A COUPLE INTENSESUPERCELLS /PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT OVERALL FORCING SHOULD BEMODEST/. A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADOIS APPARENT. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SIGNIFICANT SEVEREPROBABILITIES /DRIVEN BY HAIL/...BUT MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY IS TOOLOW FOR A LOCALIZED UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK PROBABILITIES THISOUTLOOK. REGARDLESS OF WHEN TSTM INITIATION OCCURS...UPSCALE GROWTHINTO A LATE EVENING MCS SEEMS PROBABLE WITH A DAMAGING WIND RISKMOST LIKELY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM-SCALE MERGERS UNTILCONVECTION TENDS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 The pretty massive MCV over E NE attm is impressive... at least geographically/size speaking. As long as there isn't pestering convection, like there always is in 2015, then today should be pretty good. Main question will be how HP are any supercells that develop going to be and how quickly do they/ do they not form into a messy WF MCS. 06Z 4K NAM shows CI around 23-00z in E NE and almost automatically develops it into a bow-echo by 01Z. Could be a small window in there to get an intense supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Liking what I'm seeing on the radar so far. Looks like the MCS cleared out and doesn't show any plans of backbuilding at the current moment. If that area can get a good few hours of unfiltered sun I'm liking the chances of an isolated strong TOR or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 The pretty massive MCV over E NE attm is impressive... at least geographically/size speaking. As long as there isn't pestering convection, like there always is in 2015, then today should be pretty good. Main question will be how HP are any supercells that develop going to be and how quickly do they/ do they not form into a messy WF MCS. 06Z 4K NAM shows CI around 23-00z in E NE and almost automatically develops it into a bow-echo by 01Z. Could be a small window in there to get an intense supercell. MCC over the central plains. This radar is from 07z. That's quite a large area that got rain, considering that there were just a few isolated storms in Colorado to start off last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Ironically the first storms to fire are along the "dryline" in W/SW/NC KS along the northern periphery of the southern plains sub tropical ridge. Instability is pretty impressive generally south of the NE/KS border. But shear is pretty underwhelming attm with only 20-30kts of eff. shear across the area. But that should increase as the main-- but subtle-- shortwave rounds the base of the ridge, increasing shear to 35-45kts. Still is some tornado potential later this evening as a 25-35kt LLJ kicks in around the time that shortwave will kick into the area, especially if there is still a discrete storm or two. Looking pretty linear though in KS already, but doubt that much of that activity will maintain, especially with southward extent due to meager shear. However, even if we were to manage a discrete supercell prior to the MCS... or in front of/away from the MCS... it would still likely be HP given PWAT's of 2-2.5in and unimpressive upper-level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 91/76 at TOP right now, pretty juicy to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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