jojo762 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Parts of I-35 closed near Emporia, KS... 3-5in fell in 1:30 hours.. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 1230 AM CDT SATURDAY * AT 538 PM CDT...COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FAST MOVING WATER IS RUNNING OVER INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 119. NORTHBOUND LANES HAVE BEEN CLOSED. UP TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... EMPORIA...OLPE...HARTFORD AND NEOSHO RAPIDS. THIS INCLUDES KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 125. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Guess someone died on the Kansas Turnpike (I-35) yesterday SW of Emporia due to flash flooding. ICT said that 4-6.5in of rain fell in about a 1:30-2:00 or so period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Top 5 photogenic tornado of the year occurred about an hour ago near Hutchinson. MRGL risk, no MD, no watch. T/Td approximately ~100/70. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWcSBWoCTiQ&sns=fb https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luOnBMnA7Wk&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Looking like a nice day for severe storms for North KS and southern NE. On Wednesday night Sent from my Barnes & Noble Nook HD+ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Well, tomorrow could be a lot more interesting than I thought. I am driving through the slight risk area tomorrow. I may just want to continue on to Des Moines by early evening. I do not like seeing the NAM predict precipitation in Nebraska before 18z. That means I will probably have to drive through some morning-MCS rain. Perhaps it will be even more exciting than that. I like dry roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Top 5 photogenic tornado of the year occurred about an hour ago near Hutchinson. MRGL risk, no MD, no watch. T/Td approximately ~100/70. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWcSBWoCTiQ&sns=fb https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luOnBMnA7Wk&feature=youtu.be Ended up being rated as an EF-3. "Tornado near Nickerson, KS was rated EF-3 with winds of 165 mph, a path of 5.3 miles long and width of 350 yards wide after assessment." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Ended up being rated as an EF-3. "Tornado near Nickerson, KS was rated EF-3 with winds of 165 mph, a path of 5.3 miles long and width of 350 yards wide after assessment." In a marginal risk with not even a 2% tornado prob... Just odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 In a marginal risk with not even a 2% tornado prob... Just odd. And a 30F T/TD spread...that cloud base looked like it was in the stratosphere lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 SVR passing overhead now - my job travels have me in Leawood, KS today ... I'm watching some lovely churning clouds passing overhead and am trying to convince another traveler that we are not going to end up blown away and don't need to go into the storm shelter just yet (I'd expect a LOT more activity here if there was anything particularly juicy expected. Then again, Hutchinson). Lots of high wind and rain on the way. (I didn't see an Obs thread for KS/MO, if you want this and any followup if-something-interesting-happens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Could be a bit of a localized big day across SE NE/NE KS/NW MO/SW IA... Recent High-Rest guidance shows numerous supercells going up in this area, with a somewhat impressive parameter space. 2000-4000J/KG MUCAPE overlapped by ~50kts of 0-500mb bulk shear... 0-3KM EHI's make it in the 6-10 range later this afternoon/evening. 0-3KM SRH makes it into the 450-600m2/s2 range this evening too... 00Z NAM forecast Sounding in SE NE. And another on in Lincoln, NE at 00z, hodographs are superb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 That outflow boundary from KC to Omaha will provide great low level helicity. It should be a late show, as the atmo takes all afternoon to recover, but it'll go. Also note the southern most cell may not be the cell of interest today. Boundary intersection is northwest. It will be tough to know the right cell until after things start. Subtle setups favor the lucky. LOL at the morning story out of Leawood. Yeah, nobody there goes to shelter for severe warnings. Maybe for tornado warning, but even then too many people go outside for a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Hey, I'm on the edge of the 15% hail risk area in Iowa. I got tired of driving in the drizzly rain and got a hotel. What a great storm chaser I am-- I can't even take a little rain with traffic. Oh well, I made it 600mi, so that's good. I wonder if any storms will visit me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Isolated supercell developed along a boundary (maybe a tad north now of it now) west of Topeka, should be interesting to see if it takes advantage of the impressive parameters in place. 0-3KM CAPE 150-200J/KG, good SFC-vorticity along the boundary, MLCAPE of 3500-4000J/KG, EFF shear of 40-50kts, 0-3KM SRH of ~300m2/s2... STP is 3-5 across NE/E KS. Virtually no CIN left according to mesoanalysis. Localized flooding will be a concern where this lone storm crosses too... Forward speed around 15-25mph. And PWAT's around 2in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Looks like the outflow is surging out ahead of that storm. Tornado potential should be low for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Looks like the outflow is surging out ahead of that storm. Tornado potential should be low for now. Just from the app on my phone I think the outflow is on the tip of the hook... But I'm not sure.. But it definitely looks north of the boundary at this point. Impressive hook though. Really close to the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Storm became outflow dominant after having a nice look for a short time. Time to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Some mini-supercells appear to be popping up near the SRH maximum at the Missouri river. Maybe these will get within several miles of me in Iowa. I'm not really counting on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 That storm entering Plattsmouth is interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a wall cloud right now and judging latest velocity scan, it's cycling? Edit: Storm heading for Tabor getting rotation also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 That storm entering Plattsmouth is interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a wall cloud right now and judging latest velocity scan, it's cycling? Edit: Storm heading for Tabor getting rotation also. It may be very interesting soon, as in tornado warned. There is a tornado warned cell near Falls City Nebraska. This is a heck of a small warning polygon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Now a storm popping up over the western half of Omaha and slowly moving. Going to be an interesting one for me to watch with how the other storms have been going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 so who is watching attm out on the ABR radar? because it looks like to me the cluster tried to get together in Day and Marshall Counties, but in a form of semi-rejection they ended up spinning up their own tornadoes instead. looks like another hour or two they'll eventually get together. but in the meantime, the interaction with these storms with the cell in Traverse and Big Stone Counties in MN will be a rather interesting one in the next couple of hours somewhere near Grant and/or Stevens Counties near Benson/Morris/Appleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR EASTCENTRAL DAY AND SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES...AT 754 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WASLOCATED OVER ENEMY SWIM HOUSING...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEBSTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAYBE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMESWILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TOHOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETEDESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...CAMPBELL SLOUGH AROUND 800 PM CDT.RUDEBUSCH CORNER AROUND 815 PM CDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLYTORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVETO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...ORIN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 4544 9702 4534 9704 4543 9737 4548 9734TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 305DEG 18KT 4544 9730TORNADO...OBSERVEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...1.50IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 And another "large and extremely dangerous tornado" THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN DAY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL CODINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...* UNTIL 830 PM CDT* AT 744 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADOWAS LOCATED NEAR ANTELOPE LAKE...OR NEAR WEBSTER...MOVING SOUTHEASTAT 25 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO. PUBLIC REPORTS DEBRIS INWEBSTER.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRISMAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILEHOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TOHOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETEDESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...BLUE DOG LAKE AROUND 750 PM CDT.WAUBAY AROUND 755 PM CDT.BITTER LAKE AROUND 800 PM CDT.ORTLEY AROUND 805 PM CDT.SUMMIT AROUND 820 PM CDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLYTORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVETO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...ORIN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 4523 9751 4540 9745 4533 9692 4506 9703TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 293DEG 24KT 4530 9740TORNADO...OBSERVEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...1.25IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 would be nice attm if there was a guy or gal able to make an old fashioned manual observation and take a photo from ATY (Watertown Airport). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Southern California Nevada and Western Arizona are getting dumped on today. Wonder when the last time LA got rain in July was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 **Could** be a possible sleeper day E/NE/SE KS and areas eastward in WC MO. Both 00Z 4K and 12K NAM solutions show impressive instability building into the area with MUCAPE values of 3000-5000J/KG widespread overlapped by 0-500mb bulk shear of 30-50kts... All with very impressive veering with height leading to elongated curved low-level hodographs (especially along the OFB left over from the mid/early morning MCS) owing to 0-3KM SRH of 300-500m2/s2 along the OFB with 30-40kts of SFC-700mb flow, and especially in the KC metro area. Which is an area that both models pin point as an area of maximized parameter space evidenced by 00Z/Monday forecast soundings from the 4K and 12K NAM for KMCI. The 4K NAM also shows vigorous discrete supercell development (perhaps morphing into a cluster eventually) over this same area, which could lead to a dangerous and unexpected scenario. Then again absolutely nothing could happen, as the 00Z GFS showed no convective development over the area, and the NAM hinted to continuous pestering convection over NE KS, and eventually re-intensifying over EC KS. Will have to reevaluate this as 06Z models come in, and see if the 06Z 4K NAM maintains this scenario as the 18Z and 00Z runs did. Also... Flash flooding is likely to be a concern if any storms do form and persist... as storm motions are likely to be slow and PWAT values are 2-2.4in across the region, which according to SPC Sounding climatology is quite anomalous. As even the record PWAT's from all the 12Z soundings for July 19 is 2.27in and 00z/July 20 is 2.28in. Which could possibly be broken. But, generally the 4K NAM is on a bit of an island attm as far as the tornado-potential goes at least... doesn't mean it could be right though. But at the very least a few severe thunderstorms going up an environment of high-extreme instability and more than sufficient shear would produce large hail and damaging winds. FWIW, last time the 4K NAM showed something like this (and with run to run persistence) a few weeks ago, it nailed it. With Lee Summit and areas just north of the EAX office getting a few tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Looks like a pretty strong book-end vortex NE of Hill City, KS presently, although it's difficult to see from any of the radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 How does this river not have a flood warning on it? It's at 41.51ft and flood stage is only 26ft, and the record is 44.16... Especially given the amount of "impacts" that have been reached. 40 U.S. Highway 80 will be flooded and closed. Several thousand acres of land will remain flooded for several days. 38 U.S. Highway 271 will is flooded and closed. Expect severe flooding to continue for several more days. 36 Expect moderate to severe flooding with some secondary roadways near the river to be closed. Also homes will be threatened with flooding and preparations should be completed for a major flood. 32 Lowland flooding will continue to slowly decrease over the next several days. 29 Expect lowland flooding to continue with oil field operations curtailed. 26 Expect minor lowland flooding with camps and picnic areas near the river suffering some flooding. http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=shv&gage=gdwt2 EDIT: It would appear basing off of other gauges along the river that this specific gauge malfunctioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Models seem to be toying with the idea (particularly the latest 12z Euro) of ejecting a very impressive upper trough and associated anomalously deep surface low (sub 1000 mb) across the N Plains/S Prairie provinces early next week (looks to be around the 27th) with a seasonably moist warm sector out ahead of it. Would have to think there would be at least a half-decent severe weather threat with that, given you really don't see systems that vigorous this time of year at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 I also placed this post over on Stormtrack: FYI to anyone chasing today in ND or Canada. The KMBX radar is down and has been down all week. The part was supposed to be here Monday but it still hasn't arrived. The new estimate from the Air Force Base is now tomorrow. The good news is that we have the radar in stand by mode and will be able put it operational when the event starts. There's no telling how long it will last without the new part, however. But we cannot break it further by trying it tonight.If you are chasing in the area and the radar goes out, we will need reliable spotter reports more than ever! I think I can speak for the GFK office in that regard as well. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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