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Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion


Quincy
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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

strong rotational signature and tornadoes reported at the MT/SD border

yMcd7YI.png

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN HARDING COUNTY...

    

At 809 PM MDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was

located 3 miles southwest of West Short Pines, or 25 miles southwest

of Buffalo, moving northeast at 20 mph.

 

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

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Objectively, this was one of the most volatile environments of 2018, it's just interesting how none of the CAMs picked up on convection in that area. Regardless, with the amount of forcing coming in from the west, a rapidly increasing low-level jet and an extreme CAPE/high shear environment, any cell that could intensify and remain isolated was going to have potential to produce significant severe.

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Yikes... STW from Rapid City SD states hail to ping pong ball size and wind gusts to 90mph

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1048 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Rapid City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Haakon County in west central South Dakota...
  Southern Ziebach County in west central South Dakota...
  East central Meade County in west central South Dakota...
  Northeastern Pennington County in west central South Dakota...

* Until midnight MDT

* At 1047 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles southwest of Plainview to 8 miles northeast
  of Creighton to 8 miles north of Wall, moving east at 55 mph.

  These are very dangerous storms.

  HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and
           businesses will have substantial roof and window damage.
           Expect extensive tree damage and power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cherry Creek, Milesville, Grindstone, Creighton, Bridger, Kirley,
  Howes, Ottumwa, Billsburg, Takini School and Grindstone Butte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4407 10222 4432 10221 4456 10232 4484 10114
      4476 10113 4469 10113 4469 10116 4417 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 253DEG 48KT 4454 10228 4433 10207 4411 10220

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...90MPH
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
215 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

SDC021-031-129-040745-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180704T0745Z/
Corson SD-Campbell SD-Walworth SD-
215 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM
CDT/145 AM MDT/ FOR NORTHEASTERN CORSON...CENTRAL CAMPBELL AND
NORTHWESTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES...

At 213 AM CDT/113 AM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located near
Kenel, or 18 miles north of Mobridge, moving northeast at 60 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Herreid, Pollock, Mound City, Artas and Kenel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing
widespread wind damage across north central South Dakota. SEEK
SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4558 10026 4578 10068 4595 10057 4594 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 217DEG 50KT 4580 10034

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...90MPH
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
227 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

SDC021-045-049-089-107-129-040800-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-180704T0800Z/
Edmunds SD-Faulk SD-Campbell SD-Potter SD-McPherson SD-Walworth SD-
227 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN EDMUNDS...WESTERN FAULK...CAMPBELL...EASTERN POTTER...
WESTERN MCPHERSON AND EASTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES...

At 226 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Strasburg to 7 miles north of Java to 6 miles
northwest of Lebanon, moving northeast at 65 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Eureka, Selby, Bowdle, Herreid, Hoven, Roscoe, Pollock, Hosmer, Java,
Mound City, Lebanon, Seneca, Tolstoy, Onaka, Artas, Hillsview, Lake
Hiddenwood Rec Area, Greenway and New Town Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4495 9932 4494 9977 4522 9981 4540 9996
      4557 10016 4566 10033 4571 10031 4587 10039
      4594 10049 4594 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 203DEG 56KT 4608 10015 4561 9986 4512 9989

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...
90MPH
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  • 2 weeks later...

I think this was a case of models and obs showed some uncertainty until the last minute. Thankfully NWS DMX stayed on top of things when it rapidly escalated... I certainly wasn't prepared to chase with 2% probs until it was a mile east of home. 

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On 7/19/2018 at 8:34 PM, Jonbo said:

Saw one of them, picture from video capture. Even managed to capture it on video about 15 minutes prior when it was rotating high up pretty strong over my place. 

 

Nice catch! See any more? I was on the storm that tracked from Newton/Monroe/Pella. and got 6. I posted in the lakes/ohio valley thread with my pics. This day will probably end up verifying closer to a 15% than a 2%.

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Thanks. I was considering following it but headache combined with adrenaline rush was too much to do more than the Bondurant one. My dad was still at work in Marshalltown when it hit. Barely grazed work but he was on the edge and heard the freight train. 

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SPC added a moderate risk area for parts of CO/KS/NE for today.

Quote

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN KS AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NE...

...SUMMARY... Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across the central High Plains with very large hail, intense wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. Strong to isolated severe storms are anticipated across parts of the Northeast into early evening, with risks for hail and damaging winds. ...Central High Plains... Scattered storms are expected to form over the Laramie and Front Ranges during the mid to late afternoon, with ongoing convection near the NE/CO border area also likely to increase and redevelop upshear through the afternoon. While boundary-layer moisture will not be particularly rich with surface dew points in the mid 50s to lower 60s, the eastern periphery of the elevated mixed layer will support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level veering with height beneath strong mid/upper-level speed shear will favor rather large effective shear magnitudes around 50-55 kt. This should yield a few supercells, a couple of which may be intense and long-track to the southeast, mainly between 3-7 pm MDT. Very large hail and tornadoes will be most likely during this time frame. Storm-scale mergers/consolidation will likely yield an MCS developing near the CO/KS border area and moving south-southeast across western KS in the evening, eventually weakening in western OK to the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity later tonight. The risk for severe wind gusts will be greatest over western KS where bowing structures in the forward-propagating MCS are anticipated. The lack of even larger MUCAPE/DCAPE may limit the severe wind gust threat to some extent, but the highly consistent CAM and non-CAM guidance signal warrants sufficient confidence for a spatially confined Moderate risk.

 

day1otlk_1630.gif

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If you were to take just the 13z outlook, with enhanced, the verification is not great. The moderate risk verification (16z) looks worse. The East Coast slight risk was about OK. A lot of storm spotters reported wind damage near Washington/Baltimore, that's partially because there are a lot of people there.

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I got caught in a nasty cell way up in the Sawatch Range today.  Marble-to-nickel hail accumulated to about 2”.  And let me tell you this:  hail that size, falling that thickly, freakin hurts!

The cell was rotating and had a small wall below it.  All in all, a pretty crazy storm for 11:30am.  Normally getting below tree line by noon will keep you safe but not when the lapse rates are as steep as they were today...

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