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Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion


Quincy
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Virtual targets rest of this week; I am not chasing live.

Wednesday: I favor the Palmer Divide Denver Cyclone. Nebraska looks like a mess quickly on low dews. Colorado dews are low too (even for them) but I will go with terrain over the hope-cast method.

Thursday: Could be more up in Wyoming. Colorado is still somewhat in play, esp if boundaries rush south tonight, but southeast flow is forecast a touch stronger up in Wyoming. Laramie Range or Big Horns are possible terrain helpers. 

Friday depends a lot on where boundaries settle after two days of High Plains storms. Looks like WY/CO/NE assuming upslope flow recovers well.

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Some very impressive pictures coming out of Laramie WY now of that tornado.

It reminds me a bit of the Wray CO tornado in the sense of it being on the ground for a while and being extremely picturesque (not comparing the events obviously)

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On 6/7/2018 at 4:27 AM, WesterlyWx said:

From my Father in Law who lives in the Antelope Ridge subdivision of Laramie. Tornado was about 1/4 to 1/2 miles away from his house. I’m 

 

 

 

Sometimes you chase the storm; sometimes the storm chases you.

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Fremont storm I was watching was ready to be mean and thankfully failed, would've devastated Fremont. The Louisville short lived wedge kinda reminded me of El Reno and even Fremont storm. Huge low scraping wall clouds but not a comparatively extreme tornado within it due to the downgrade from ef5 to ef3. Wonder how similar atmosphere yesterday around Omaha looked before El Reno. Some difference was there

Screenshot_20180613-011301_Video Player.jpg

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

NDZ001>005-009>013-151745-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-
1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are forecast across western and central
North Dakota this evening through tonight.

Across the north, very large hail, damaging wind, and locally
heavy rain will be the main storm threats. A tornado or two is
likely and significant tornadoes are possible.
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Things appear to be popping off as the storms that will likely be the main show can be seen developing ~70 miles west of KMBX and KBIS. VADs from both sites reveal a very favorable low-level wind field. Not entirely sold on a big time tornado threat though as SPC mesoanalysis indicates that low-level lapse rates did not really recover from the morning/early afternoon convection, resulting in meager or no 0-3km CAPE.

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10% hatched tor added for the ND-SD-MN junction. Dare I say the setup doesn't look too bad with plenty of low level moisture and backing surface winds in this vicinity. Issue may be tendency for HP transition given the lack of flow aloft and also 0-1 km shear magnitude isn't ideal especially if storms fire earlier on.

Addendum: Man is it hard to analyze setups in a season like this, motivation is at an all time low personally.

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19 hours ago, andyhb said:

10% hatched tor added for the ND-SD-MN junction. Dare I say the setup doesn't look too bad with plenty of low level moisture and backing surface winds in this vicinity. Issue may be tendency for HP transition given the lack of flow aloft and also 0-1 km shear magnitude isn't ideal especially if storms fire earlier on.

Addendum: Man is it hard to analyze setups in a season like this, motivation is at an all time low personally.

Thought Thursday looked good basing off of CAMs (as did numerous chasers) and thought yesterday looked good too. Both failed miserably... At this point even the Atlantic hurricane season looks like it could be underwhelming with how SSTs are below-average across the entire MDR, crummy year to say the least.

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On 6/16/2018 at 2:55 PM, andyhb said:

10% hatched tor added for the ND-SD-MN junction. Dare I say the setup doesn't look too bad with plenty of low level moisture and backing surface winds in this vicinity. Issue may be tendency for HP transition given the lack of flow aloft and also 0-1 km shear magnitude isn't ideal especially if storms fire earlier on.

Addendum: Man is it hard to analyze setups in a season like this, motivation is at an all time low personally.

2018's atmospheric lamitude knows no bounds. Never seen a year with such consistently underperforming setups, when they can even be considered setups.

Meanwhile there was a tornado less than 40 miles from my house yesterday, not even in the marginal risk, while I was having my afternoon nap.

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52 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

2018's atmospheric lamitude knows no bounds. Never seen a year with such consistently underperforming setups, when they can even be considered setups.

Meanwhile there was a tornado less than 40 miles from my house yesterday, not even in the marginal risk, while I was having my afternoon nap.

Agreed. I've chased so many storms that had incredible wall clouds spinning but nothing would come down or all the way down. Every. Single. Time. Pictures come out great but it's frustrating still. Amazes me models get consistent on something big or a big day and poof, little to nothing. 

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