CheeselandSkies Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 If things continue to hold fast on the GFS and NAM, looks like Saturday in SW IA or SE NE will be my only play. Tomorrow I find just too much of a haul to western KS for a fairly modest set-up. Good luck to those out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 I’m in hays now just chilling. Its my birthday and I have my gear with me and will probably just camp around here tonight and then position for tomorrow around DDC. Keeping it low key and lazy. I could go to CO and maybe chase whatever forms today but don’t really feel like it. This hammock life is too clutch rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Victor Gensini and myself will be out tomorrow in probably northeast KS as it looks now. We are leaving tonight for DSM. Synoptically, it looks like a really nice setup but the CAM's aren't really having it and seem to be really struggling with storm mode/morphology. The 18z NAM came in even stronger with the mid-level streak owing to even better bulk shear values coupled with big CAPE, dew points in the upper 60's, backed surface flow and very steep mid-level lapse rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 Tomorrow should be interesting near the triple point and along any OFBs put out by the morning MCS. Vorticity rich environment should exist INVOF of the boundary, in addition to BL moisture pooling along it AND lapse rates in excess of 8.0C/KM resulting in explosive levels of instability. Still believe things get messy - as every CAM indicates - but also believe there will be a discrete/semi-discrete supercell or two for at least a couple hours along the front and near the triple point, in addition to transient supercell structures that will exist later on as storms congeal... QLCS potential will be quite high as well later on. Something I have noted on NAM forecast soundings that has me a bit concerned is early in the afternoon (21z or so) when storms start to get going is that 0-1KM SRH is fairly underwhelming, while 0-3KM SRH is still relatively impressive, it is going to be hard to get tornadogenesis and sustained mesos with 1. Lots of storm interactions/messy modes, and 2. meager 0-1km SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 Today went way better than expected. We were on the storm that sat over Quinter, KS from when it first broke the cap. We about dumped it to drop back and it went nuts. We sat back in one of the most amazing RFD clear slots I’ve ever seen. It tried to tornado but bases were too high. We did get a landspout in the RFD though. We had to bail south during a massive RFD surge to dodge the baseball sized hail. Overall the storm was awesome and vastly exceeded expectations. Spending the night in Salina and back to chasing again tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 What an epic bust today was. Not sorry I bailed on chasing after looking at things this morning, although I still expected there to be widespread severe across NE KS/SE NE/SW IA/NW MO. Just a low chance of photogenic/tornadic storms. Not the complete lack of storms in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2018 Author Share Posted May 20, 2018 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: What an epic bust today was. Not sorry I bailed on chasing after looking at things this morning, although I still expected there to be widespread severe across NE KS/SE NE/SW IA/NW MO. Just a low chance of photogenic/tornadic storms. Not the complete lack of storms in the area. I didn't chase either and I'm more or less local. Of course now there's a big hail-producing elevated thunderstorm in northern MO, at midnight, outside of the MRGL risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 11 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: What an epic bust today was. Not sorry I bailed on chasing after looking at things this morning, although I still expected there to be widespread severe across NE KS/SE NE/SW IA/NW MO. Just a low chance of photogenic/tornadic storms. Not the complete lack of storms in the area. 2018...everything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Had a possible tornado in the Leander/Georgetown TX area today. Some pics and vids floating around social media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Yesterday was completely underwhelming. The writing was on the wall with regard to storm mode, and models really busted pretty hard on where the boundary ended up setting up shop at.... but it still seemed probable that we would get at least one interesting tornadic storm, albeit I expected it to be HP and messy, or two along/south of the OFB (wherever it was supposed to setup)... And that really didn't pan out, hail-wise yesterday was even a bust. Yesterday was very likely our last potentially semi-interesting day of May in the central and southern plains, and for the foreseeable future, perhaps some hints of moderate west/southwesterly mid-level flow at some point in the next few weeks, but no real definite/obvious signals. We currently sit at a remarkably sad amount of tornadoes for the year. RIP 2018 severe season. Quote TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH 11 MAY 2018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2018 ...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES ..2018.. 2017 2016 2015 3YR 3YR 3YR PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 18 17 16 15 AV 18 17 16 15 AV --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- JAN 16 14 134 17 28 60 0 20 2 0 7 0 3 1 0 1 FEB 46 34^ 68 102 3 58 2 5 7 0 4 2 4 4 0 3 MAR 62 18^ 191 86 11 96 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 APR 146 - 211 141 171 174 1 8 1 2 4 1 5 1 1 2 MAY 52 - 287 216 381 295 0 2 2 7 4 0 2 2 5 3 JUN - - 143 86 184 138 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 JUL - - 80 107 115 101 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 AUG - - 114 90 45 83 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 SEP - - 34 38 17 30 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 OCT - - 85* 20 40 48* - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 NOV - - 46* 50 99 65* - 0 6 0 2 - 0 2 0 1 DEC - - 13* 18 83 38* - 0 0 26 9 - 0 0 6 2 --- ---- ---- ----- ---- ---- ----- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- SUM 322 66^ 1406* 971 1177 1186* 3 35 18 36 30 3 14 10 13 13 *PRELIMINARY REPORTS. ^PRELIMINARY VERSION OF ACTUAL COUNTS. PREL = 2018 PRELIMINARY COUNT FROM ALL NWS LOCAL STORM REPORTS. ACT = ACTUAL TORNADO COUNT BASED ON NWS STORM DATA SUBMISSIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 46 minutes ago, jojo762 said: RIP 2018 severe season. It can't die if it was never alive. See my post from April 18th (in Medium-Long Range Discussion). Should have never allowed my hopes to get up and just saved my vacation days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 This month is on track to undercut even the May of 1987 in terms of Tornado count. Unbelieveable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 Well, it's a nasty series of bow echoes/possible tornado outbreak for much of SD/ND/MN Thursday if you believe the 3K NAM. Although, I saw its 48-36 hour sim reflectivity for Saturday over SW IA/NE KS and we all know how that turned out. Shear parameters look pretty marginal across the area on the regular NAM, with only isolated pockets of higher EHI/STP. Not sure what to make of those, except maybe contamination? CAPE should be plentiful, and forecast lapse rates are decent. The question is, am I that desperate for a chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 Soooooooo this is happening with no TOR out. #DodgeCityII Figures, the week AFTER my vacation, when DDC '16 was the week before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 That DDC storm is beautiful still, best looking storm ATTM... But the supercell just east of ICT has more of my attention given it is attached to a boundary. EDIT: Boundary out ran it. smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 Literally every single storm in southern Kansas has a hook right now. None with strong rotation yet, but that'll probably come as storms and wind fields mature. Feel like the Clark Co./Comanche Co. KS storm is going to be a beast eventually... its currently starting to develop some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Ford County in southwestern Kansas... East central Gray County in southwestern Kansas... * Until 530 PM CDT * At 443 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 3 miles northwest of Ensign, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Ensign around 450 PM CDT. Howell around 515 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 TOR in progress west of DDC. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD AND EAST CENTRAL GRAY COUNTIES... At 448 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Ensign, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Howell around 505 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 I think the cell crashing in from the south killed that one, but the KS/OK border rider now looks quite interesting... By far the most impressive radar signatures seen in the Plains states all spring today. Excuse me while I beat my head against my desk (again) for taking last week off instead of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 So yeah... that STW from OUN... 90mph winds and tennis ball sized hail... um, I'd be hiding in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Its nearly midnight... and this tornadic storm is producing baseball sized hail Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018 OKC151-310500- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180531T0500Z/ Woods OK- 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL WOODS COUNTY... At 1140 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 6 miles southwest of Dacoma, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Dacoma, Avard and Hopeton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 27 minutes ago, yoda said: So yeah... that STW from OUN... 90mph winds and tennis ball sized hail... um, I'd be hiding in the basement BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1122 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT * AT 1121 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WAYNOKA TO 4 MILES NORTH OF CHESTER TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOOREWOOD, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE. EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FAIRVIEW, SHATTUCK, ARNETT, TALOGA, HELENA, OKEENE, THOMAS, WAYNOKA, SEILING, VICI, CANTON, RINGWOOD, GAGE, LEEDEY, CUSTER CITY, CARMEN, CLEO SPRINGS, LONGDALE, GOLTRY AND AMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Kingfisher County in central Oklahoma... Eastern Woods County in northwestern Oklahoma... Northeastern Roger Mills County in western Oklahoma... Alfalfa County in northwestern Oklahoma... Custer County in western Oklahoma... Blaine County in northwestern Oklahoma... Grant County in northern Oklahoma... Northwestern Logan County in central Oklahoma... Dewey County in northwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Canadian County in central Oklahoma... Southeastern Woodward County in northwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Kay County in northern Oklahoma... Southern Ellis County in northwestern Oklahoma... Garfield County in northern Oklahoma... Major County in northwestern Oklahoma... * Until 100 AM CDT * At 1155 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 5 miles northwest of Helena to 4 miles south of Fairview to 7 miles west of Putnam to 5 miles north of Roll, moving east at 45 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. The strongest wind is moving toward Fairview and Helena. The largest hail is moving toward Leedy and Camargo. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Enid, Watonga, Alva, Kingfisher, Fairview, Cherokee, Medford, Arnett, Taloga, Hennessey, Helena, Waukomis, Okeene, Thomas, Waynoka, Seiling, Pond Creek, Garber, Arapaho and Canton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Confirmed TOR in SE Dunn County in ND just SW of Marshall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 Surprised no posts about the severe weather threat today... MOD risk in NE... 45/45 in the hail and wind probs... 10% TOR probs in ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 Wow that MOD came kinda out of nowhere, though looks to be mainly a wind/hail event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 these supercells in Wyoming have produced a funnel cloud and a tornado, before moving toward Devil's Tower (filming location of "Close Encounters of the Third Kind") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 PDS TOR Warning on the Devil's Tower TOR warned storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 Never doubt the High Plains! @Chinook do you think the Bighorns set off those storms, or was it the high terrain closer to Devil's Tower? I was not paying attention on a Friday afternoon sitting in Dixie, lol! Earlier this week the Laramie range set off storms that lead to that gorgeous tornado I think on Sunday. Monday was the CO landspout party? At any rate those terrain features can help chasers with decisions. Everybody knows the Palmer Divide / DCVZ; however, many other gems are there to help up the High Plains. UPDATE: Thanks Chinook! Looked back at Gillette tornado, between Bighorns and Devil's Tower. Looks like a good upslope into the Bighorns complete with SSE facing valley. I'll make a note of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 The first tornado near Cheyenne last week, was in fact on some lonely hilltop at 7900 ft in the foothills section between Cheyenne and Laramie. I'm sure the terrain helped concentrate some of the convergence, leading to the storm producing more tornadoes north of Cheyenne, in flatter terrain. (see my post about this in the Mountain West thread if you want to see the radar image of the first tornado) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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