mfgmfg Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 A bit off topic, but I was trying to get the outlook for Friday and keep running into this on and off - been having issues with other noaa.gov sites too, anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 26 minutes ago, mfgmfg said: A bit off topic, but I was trying to get the outlook for Friday and keep running into this on and off - been having issues with other noaa.gov sites too, anyone else? Yep... you can use http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/ when this happens. It doesn't have as many features for the maps as SPC does, but it gets the job done, and usually updates faster than the actual SPC page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 I got that exact same error at about 5:00 (6:00 central). Just reload it in 5 minutes or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 I had the problem in Chrome but it opened in IE. You can try that. Thanks for the alt URL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 FWD seems to have shifted focus to a large hail over a wind threat for DFW. Last thing this area needs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Sounding for this evening in Northeast Texas along the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Looking like a few prolific hailers potentially this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Looking like a few prolific hailers potentially this afternoon. Plenty of very large hail events showing up in the analog soundings. I generally take these with a grain of salt, since the matches are usually loose, but there's still a pretty strong signal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Enhanced Risk shifted back into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Quote ...Southern Plains into Ozark Plateau... An initial organized convective system, which evolved across central/eastern Oklahoma earlier today, now appears in the process of weakening across parts of northwestern Arkansas. New convection is in the process of developing in its wake, near/east of the Interstate 35 corridor of Oklahoma, as a cyclonic 50-70 kt 500 mb jet streak noses east southeast of the Rockies, through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region. Subsequent evolution of this convection remains at least somewhat unclear, but due to the frontal progression and the influence of the initial convective cluster, strongest new convective development probably will eventually become focused near the Red River by late this afternoon. This is within the thermal gradient along the northern periphery of a plume of warmer and capping elevated mixed layer air, where forcing for ascent will be aided lower/mid tropospheric warm advection. The upscale growth of another mesoscale convective system accompanied a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts still appears possible. Prior to this, early boundary layer based development may include a couple of supercells, particularly (roughly) near the Sherman TX/Durant OK area, where the environment could become supportive of an isolated strong tornado or two. SPC still seems concerned about the potential of a strong tornado, albeit the potential is highly conditional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Areas affected...Southern OK...North TX...Southwest AR...Far Northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 212009Z - 212215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon. Very large hail, locally damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Watch issuance is anticipated in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...At 20Z, an outflow-reinforced frontal boundary has become nearly stationary across north TX, southeast OK, and southern AR. Visible imagery indicates slowly deepening cumulus along and south of the boundary, though wave features noted in the cloud field are indicative that some convective inhibition remains. Ongoing elevated convection across central OK is being supported by ascent associated with a rather strong but low-amplitude midlevel shortwave moving into southwest KS. This ascent will likely only glance the region along and south of the boundary, but, in conjunction with continued boundary-layer heating, will help to support convective initiation later this afternoon into the early evening as the remaining CINH is eroded. Along and south of the boundary, steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist boundary layer are supporting moderate-to-strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg noted in recent mesoanalyses. Effective shear of 45-55 kts is more than sufficient for organized storm structures, with initial discrete supercell development expected before consolidation into more of a linear mode along the boundary becomes more likely into the evening. Any discrete supercell that develops in the warm sector will be capable of all severe hazards. The tornado threat will be maximized with any supercells that interact with the frontal boundary, especially in areas where some heating/recovery has occurred north of the boundary. While the timing of deep convective development remains somewhat uncertain, tornado watch issuance is likely when initiation appears imminent, which will likely be sometime in the 2030-22Z timeframe. ..Dean/Goss.. 04/21/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, jojo762 said: SPC still seems concerned about the potential of a strong tornado, albeit the potential is highly conditional. The only apparent red flag I see is how the shear vectors don't produce a large angle with the composite outflow/frontal boundary. Storm mode may become clustered relatively quickly. With that said, if any discrete cell that fires in North Texas can remain at least somewhat isolated, there will be significant tornado potential. The metroplex is going to be in the crosshairs, which is a bit concerning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 I'm watching the area around Wichita Falls then eastward. DMC concerntrates there. 3500 to 2000 CAPE as one moves eastward. Good shear with stronger helicity to move in as evening progresses. Supercell composite up to 12 and Effective tor 3 at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 21z FWD sounding shows a substantial cap, but favorable wind fields for severe. Storms should have little problem initiating (next 1-2 hours) to the NW of the metroplex where surface temps have risen into the upper 80s/near 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Cell firing just north of Ardmore could be one to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Cel near Springer, OK already exhibiting some low level rotation. Need to watch this one closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 What's the liklihood if cap breakage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Rotation already north of Ardmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Cel near Springer, OK already exhibiting some low level rotation. Need to watch this one closely. Seems to be struggling a bit, both visually (I'm near Marietta) and on radar. As it moves east into an area of warmer near-surface inflow, it may better organize with time. Just now, cheese007 said: What's the liklihood if cap breakage? Cu fields popping down the line into North Texas. The cap is breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Just now, Quincy said: Seems to be struggling a bit, both visually (I'm near Marietta) and on radar. As it moves east into an area of warmer near-surface inflow, it may better organize with time. Cu fields popping down the line into North Texas. The cap is breaking. Yeah I'm noticing that via radar. Dbz going down slightly and everything becoming slightly less organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 TOR watch out for NE TX/SE OK/W AR until 1 am... 50/20 probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: TOR watch out for NE TX/SE OK/W AR until 1 am... 50/20 probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 The storms in North Texas still look like they're struggling with the capping for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Rotating Wall Cloud per Spotter Network report near Gene Autry, Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said: The storms in North Texas still look like they're struggling with the capping for the moment. Looks like 1st couple of attempts failed. You can see the orphaned anvils racing off to the SE on the newest sat images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Mill Creek cell developing rotation and a well developed hook. It is also taking a dive to the SE. Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 That Johnston Co. Oklahoma supercell is definitely becoming better organized. Presentation improving on both radar and chaser streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Headed in the general direction of Tishomingo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Probably will need a tornado warning on that cell in a few minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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