Chinook Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 It's kind of cool how you can see this connected gust front (fine line) from the Omaha vicinity to Grand Island or Hastings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Virtual targets rest of this week; I am not chasing live. Wednesday: I favor the Palmer Divide Denver Cyclone. Nebraska looks like a mess quickly on low dews. Colorado dews are low too (even for them) but I will go with terrain over the hope-cast method. Thursday: Could be more up in Wyoming. Colorado is still somewhat in play, esp if boundaries rush south tonight, but southeast flow is forecast a touch stronger up in Wyoming. Laramie Range or Big Horns are possible terrain helpers. Friday depends a lot on where boundaries settle after two days of High Plains storms. Looks like WY/CO/NE assuming upslope flow recovers well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Conformed TOG with this in Wyoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/atvoos/status/1004513246139670529/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Some very impressive pictures coming out of Laramie WY now of that tornado. It reminds me a bit of the Wray CO tornado in the sense of it being on the ground for a while and being extremely picturesque (not comparing the events obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 From my Father in Law who lives in the Antelope Ridge subdivision of Laramie. Tornado was about 1/4 to 1/2 miles away from his house. I’m 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 what a weird polygon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 On 6/7/2018 at 4:27 AM, WesterlyWx said: From my Father in Law who lives in the Antelope Ridge subdivision of Laramie. Tornado was about 1/4 to 1/2 miles away from his house. I’m Sometimes you chase the storm; sometimes the storm chases you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Substantial amount of instability building in SE Nebraska... HRRR goes wild. SPC saying tornado watch coming shortly, even if wind may be the primary threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Tornado watch issued, mentions 3" hail and a couple intense tornadoes possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 tornado reported near this hook-shaped area of a storm. This is near Fremont NE and the radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Large wedge reported earlier in Cass Co, NE. Hail LSRs to 2.75" and measured wind gusts to 88 in adjacent IA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 This was the radar image of possibly the largest (?) of yesterday's tornadoes near Omaha. I have not heard of any details of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Fremont storm I was watching was ready to be mean and thankfully failed, would've devastated Fremont. The Louisville short lived wedge kinda reminded me of El Reno and even Fremont storm. Huge low scraping wall clouds but not a comparatively extreme tornado within it due to the downgrade from ef5 to ef3. Wonder how similar atmosphere yesterday around Omaha looked before El Reno. Some difference was there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Small area of MOD risk in extreme N ND today per 1630 SPC OTLK... 45% hatched hail and 10% hatch TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 NDZ001>005-009>013-151745- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce- 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota and northwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Severe thunderstorms are forecast across western and central North Dakota this evening through tonight. Across the north, very large hail, damaging wind, and locally heavy rain will be the main storm threats. A tornado or two is likely and significant tornadoes are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Tiniest little sliver of moderate risk I think I've ever seen. Also don't believe I've ever seen the "No major population center in risk area" notation. I suppose that's a good thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 morning convection, while weak, has slowed progression of warm front significantly. Therefore all the storms near the border and north of the border will remain elevated for the duration of the event. Any tornado potential resides on outflow boundary along US 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Things appear to be popping off as the storms that will likely be the main show can be seen developing ~70 miles west of KMBX and KBIS. VADs from both sites reveal a very favorable low-level wind field. Not entirely sold on a big time tornado threat though as SPC mesoanalysis indicates that low-level lapse rates did not really recover from the morning/early afternoon convection, resulting in meager or no 0-3km CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 15, 2018 Share Posted June 15, 2018 Not a bad radar signature, it's in a bad radar zone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 10% hatched tor added for the ND-SD-MN junction. Dare I say the setup doesn't look too bad with plenty of low level moisture and backing surface winds in this vicinity. Issue may be tendency for HP transition given the lack of flow aloft and also 0-1 km shear magnitude isn't ideal especially if storms fire earlier on. Addendum: Man is it hard to analyze setups in a season like this, motivation is at an all time low personally. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 one of those rare, possibly dangerous flooding setups for SE Texas the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 19 hours ago, andyhb said: 10% hatched tor added for the ND-SD-MN junction. Dare I say the setup doesn't look too bad with plenty of low level moisture and backing surface winds in this vicinity. Issue may be tendency for HP transition given the lack of flow aloft and also 0-1 km shear magnitude isn't ideal especially if storms fire earlier on. Addendum: Man is it hard to analyze setups in a season like this, motivation is at an all time low personally. Thought Thursday looked good basing off of CAMs (as did numerous chasers) and thought yesterday looked good too. Both failed miserably... At this point even the Atlantic hurricane season looks like it could be underwhelming with how SSTs are below-average across the entire MDR, crummy year to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 isolated supercell near the Colorado corner has produced 4 prelim. tornado reports. Unfortunately, this is quite a distance from the CYS and GLD radars. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 On 6/16/2018 at 2:55 PM, andyhb said: 10% hatched tor added for the ND-SD-MN junction. Dare I say the setup doesn't look too bad with plenty of low level moisture and backing surface winds in this vicinity. Issue may be tendency for HP transition given the lack of flow aloft and also 0-1 km shear magnitude isn't ideal especially if storms fire earlier on. Addendum: Man is it hard to analyze setups in a season like this, motivation is at an all time low personally. 2018's atmospheric lamitude knows no bounds. Never seen a year with such consistently underperforming setups, when they can even be considered setups. Meanwhile there was a tornado less than 40 miles from my house yesterday, not even in the marginal risk, while I was having my afternoon nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 52 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: 2018's atmospheric lamitude knows no bounds. Never seen a year with such consistently underperforming setups, when they can even be considered setups. Meanwhile there was a tornado less than 40 miles from my house yesterday, not even in the marginal risk, while I was having my afternoon nap. Agreed. I've chased so many storms that had incredible wall clouds spinning but nothing would come down or all the way down. Every. Single. Time. Pictures come out great but it's frustrating still. Amazes me models get consistent on something big or a big day and poof, little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 Credit the models do fall apart about 36 hours out; so, at least NWP gives fair warning of the crap-out. In most cases the LLJ vanishes from the models. Regardless of radar sim. No LLJ no fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 9" of rain today so far at Alice Airport. Jim Wells, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 another slow motion disaster in SE Texas and it's no news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 Beaumont and Port Arthur area...destroyed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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