monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Slight risk with 5% tornado risk issued for SE OK and Arklatex region. Probably looking at QLCS type threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Dewpoints are already up to the low 60s across most of the southern half of the slight risk area, per SPC mesoscale analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Just a preview of east of I-35 all season. OK OK it is early and supposed to be so right now. Just with fading La Nina and a drought in the southern Plains... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 And SPC just put out a mesoscale discussion for East Texas (west to Dallas), eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, stating that a tornado watch is likely to be issued (80% probability of watch issuance) within the next two hours or so (likely before 21Z/3PM CST). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Numerous cells popping in the warm sector, today has the potential to be a quite a little outbreak of QLCS type tornadoes. Don't rule out an strong tornado somewhere today in upcoming tornado watch area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Good to have GOES16 images. Would have liked to have a bit less cloudiness for this episode but there are breaks as one travels northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 It seems that behind the main line of storms east of Dallas, another line has started to form from around Hamilton to the southwest corner of the Fort Worth area. Nothing severe yet with either line. I won't be calling the Metroplex out of any storm action until we see how this second line behaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 68/66 at Mena Arkansas. That dew can't be correct, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 What an amazing temperature difference from just 4 days ago. We had record cold with temperatures near -10°F or colder along with wind chills around -20°F. Today, Springfield has broken a record high of at least 72°F and very Spring like outside. That is nearly an 85 plus degrees difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Tor watch issued until 11 central time for the affected mesoscale discussion area. First tornado watch of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Tor watch issued until 11 central time for the affected mesoscale discussion area. And the first svr t storm warning in this episode is for the Fort Worth area, technically outside of the current watch. Good reminder of the NWS statement that says "persons in or close to the watch area" should be on the lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Indystorm said: And the first svr t storm warning in this episode is for the Fort Worth area, technically outside of the current watch. Good reminder of the NWS statement that says "persons in or close to the watch area" should be on the lookout. I wasn't really expecting the second line to go severe, but I was not going to rule it out either. I had outdoor plans (afternoon run) for today that I have now cancelled, but I knew there would be a chance for thunderstorms. Hearing thunder on the west side of Fort Worth right now, with dark clouds to my southeast. 1 hour ago, BrandonC_TX said: I won't be calling the Metroplex out of any storm action until we see how this second line behaves. That was a good call on my part I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: I wasn't really expecting the second line to go severe, but I was not going to rule it out either, seeing that I had outdoor plans (afternoon run) for today that I have now cancelled. Hearing thunder on the west side of Fort Worth right now, with dark clouds to my southeast. That was a good call on my part I'd say. Yes it was....Good luck on 2018 storm observations, spotting, chasing, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 First tornado warning of this storm system Le Flore county in se OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Two tonado warnings between DFW and East Texas right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 TDS east of Hoberg in Lawrence County, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 De Kalb, TX probably just got hit bad. Big TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Multiple reports of damage trickling out of that area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 shvchat 2018/01/22 2:59 PM iembot Winnsboro [Wood Co, TX] BROADCAST MEDIA reports TSTM WND DMG at 21 Jan, 8:27 PM CST -- MAYOR OF WINNSBORO TX DECLARED STATE OF EMERGENCY DUE TO DAMAGE ON NORTH SIDE OF TOWN, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES THROUGHOUT THE AREA, POWER OUT TO MUCH OF THE AREA, TREE THROUGH HOME ON WINN DRIVE AND FM 852 WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 This beats any hailstone in the USA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Tornado watch up for parts of LA and TX. Only the 3rd watch of the year.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Currently, the only T-warned cell looks like a QLCS mesovortex and is moving into a bad radar hole. It's one of the several situations around the country where they need to just draw a quadrilateral between KSHV, KPOE, KDGX, and KLZK and place another radar smack dab in the center (not going to happen under the current administration). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 That radar hole is annoying. There are several towns like Natchez in which they could put a new radar. It is an active part of Dixie Alley. Anyway the Ozarks should go on Saturday. What awful chase terrain. Some models are more Delta, which is better chase terrain. However the slower/west solution is the stronger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 15z SREF showing eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, and far west Tennessee with the best potential for tornado activity Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 There is a thread for Saturday, just for the info. I'll post in there in a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Naturally on a junk day, the I35 corridor gets a tornado. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wichita KS 645 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018 KSC035-150030- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180515T0030Z/ Cowley KS- 645 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN COWLEY COUNTY... At 645 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Arkansas City, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Arkansas City, Winfield, Maple City and Strother Field Airport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 You found this thread! I didn't know where it was. That supercell near Arkansas City, KS has left behind a trail of hail/wind reports and 2 tornado reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 I almost went to Colorado today (nine hour drive), but am glad I didn't. Kansas was in the back of my mind, but I wanted to save a few bucks. It's really not a surprise that a storm went up in that area. We've had a few days over the past week that were capped just a bit too much for something over Kansas, but it was close. Today was a fine line between modest shear to the NW and plentiful instability to the SE. Outflow boundaries created a non-traditional outflow triple point, but it was enough to get it done. CAMs showed some potential for discrete/semi-discrete storm modes in south-central Kansas, but you would have really had to pick the right area. At 4:45 CDT, I had a narrow opportunity to go toward the developing cell south of Wichita (from Oklahoma City). It's a good thing I didn't go, because GPS would have put me in the right area about a half hour too late. It was a relatively short-lived tornado event. Most of the photos even leading up to the tornado were very grungy, so one would have to have been very patient, or just lucky. As we get deeper into May, it doesn't take much to get it done. For those who regularly chasecation or take trips to the Plains, this was an example of most favoring Colorado>Kansas, only to bust. Sure, the models had a nice UH track across eastern Colorado (and they verified), but the quality of boundary layer moisture and low-end instability were red flags that hail was a much greater threat than tornadoes. Again, Kansas wasn't clear either and that's what makes storm chasing so difficult. As well as Kansas performed today, you could envision a similar setup on Wednesday or Thursday, except due to other reasons, Colorado ends up producing a tornado. Then you have situations like 2016, where if you stayed in western Kansas for each day in late May, you would have seen nearly endless tornadoes, even though targets greatly varied from Texas to Nebraska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 The Colorado vs Kansas is a tough call, again Friday. Today Thursday I think is a pretty clear Colorado, though low odds. Anyway I will share a few rules I follow. Quincy please feel free to comment and even critique. This is a good discussion that could help many chasers. For Colorado I look for dews to hit 60. The book says 55, but 60 really increases the odds and even chance of multi-cycle. Of course the winds have to be backed. Temps around 80 is nice for LCL considerations. Temps above 85 either needs 65 Td or something to lower the LCL, like a defined outflow. If Colorado is 85/65, Kansas is probably primed too, so I'll stick with 80/60 Colorado. Next I look for an outflow boundary close to the Palmer Divide. Either one can produce. Line them up and odds increase. Ditto for Raton Mesa and the Cheyenne Ridge (WY) but the Denver Cyclone DCVZ is pretty special. Friday Colorado could go, unless Kansas storms cut off inflow. Kansas has dewpoint issues though. Out there I want 68+ Td. My Kansas criteria may not be met, but my Colorado criteria will. Kansas CAMs show an MCS following Kansas outflow, but any early sups quickly go mess. Could play Colorado, and hope it produces before the Kansas MCS gets in the way (of inflow). Oh yea, I do not get too into UH tracks. If leaning on CAMs I look more for a big supercell on an outflow boundary. Nice when the numerical and conceptual models match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 17, 2018 Author Share Posted May 17, 2018 Agreed about UH tracks @nrgjeff, plus the HRRR hasn't been perfect lately. It's struggled a bit and part of that may be some initializing gaffes. Plus, we've been in some nuanced patterns, so it only takes a slight deviation in initial conditions to throw off model evolution. (even yesterday afternoon, the HRRR couldn't convect anything over the Oklahoma panhandle until a couple of hours prior, while the NAM/HREF caught on to the idea earlier. As SPC mentioned, boundary layer moisture was underestimated by some of the CAMs.) Going back to the HRRR "challenges," they're nothing major, as I still think the HRRR is solid overall with the big picture. One has to dig deeper into meteorology and observed conditions in the moment for finer-scale details. I like the HRRR in the morning to get an idea of possible scenarios, but it's mostly obs/radar/satellite from midday out. Today is still not clear-cut, but I guess it depends what one is looking to chase. If it's a relative higher probability of a tornado and climo-support, then go for the northeastern Colorado vicinity. If more robust, isolated storms are your thing, go farther south into southwestern Kansas/panhandle region. It may be a bit conditional there and the tornado threat is minimal (although I would argue that there may be a narrow window between 00-02z, assuming storms remain isolated), but I would think structure prospects and the potential for longer-lived discrete convection are evident there. With backing near-surface winds, dew-points in the lower 60s and substantially increasing low-level shear toward sunset, don't rule out some panhandle magic (or southwestern Kansas). I haven't given Friday too much more analysis since yesterday afternoon. I'm waiting to see how tonight evolves, as outflow may be a key player tomorrow. Nonetheless, my initial thought is that Kansas is the place to be, but that is still up for debate. For tornadoes, yes, let's drive dews well into the 60s. If it's structure you're after, the High Plains can work with mid/upper 50s, like what we should have to play with today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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