Jim Martin Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Currently near Fritch, Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 That cell is drifting south toward AMA. Boundary layer moisture and low-level shear are marginal, but hodograph size is enlarging with >250 m2/s2 0-3km SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Amarillo about to get nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 Confirmed tornado currently east of Boise City, Oklahoma. Movement is to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 In addition, this same supercell is producing very large, damaging hail. It is confirmed by dual pol data (ZDR, CC, HCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 26, 2017 Author Share Posted June 26, 2017 5 hours ago, Jim Martin said: In addition, this same supercell is producing very large, damaging hail. It is confirmed by dual pol data (ZDR, CC, HCA) Witnessed some deep hail with that same cell near Dalhart. 4-6"+ covering US-54, causing some apparent stranded vehicles. Not the best photo, but: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 The SPC and several model forecasts show a fairly decent severe weather risk (again) in the Midwest/ Central Plains on Thursday. SPC has enhanced for southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. This is getting into the time of the year when organized severe thunderstorms are sometimes hard to find, or fairly far north. Part of SPC discussion from 17z (June 28) Quote Height falls ahead of the approaching upstream larger scale northwest U.S. trough will support thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and evening. Strengthening westerly midlevel winds across the central Plains and south-southwesterly low-level winds into eastern KS/northwest MO suggest strong effective bulk shear will support organized storms including supercells. Large hail, some very large, and a potential tornado threat into southeast NE/northeast KS to southwest IA and northwest MO will be the initial severe hazards. Meanwhile, model-to-model and run-to-run consistencies in the NAM/GFS/ECMWF suggest storms in the central High Plains could evolve into a forward-propagating MCS Thursday night across mainly central and eastern KS, with damaging winds being the primary severe threat, as heights falls and further strengthening of deep-layer winds --- with the approach of the upstream large-scale trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 29, 2017 Author Share Posted June 29, 2017 Synoptically, tomorrow is somewhat similar to today. There should also be an early day MCS that may eave outflow boundaries and keep LCLs down a bit. The two red flags that I see are a weaker low-level jet and convective overturning, as the morning MCS may fragment the boundary layer wind fields. Watch the southern flank of the aforementioned MCS (lower Missouri Valley) and the NE/SD border region, assuming the latter has adequate airmass recovery and wind fields aren't too disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 Short term models are also quite vigorous with CAPE on Friday, in MO and OK along I-44. CAPE should be 3000-5000 J/kg, and there should be around 30 kt of shear. Maybe a slight risk for Tulsa to Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 Softball size hail reported south Sioux City, IA. Warnings currently for baseball size and 60mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Wild hail storm here earlier. Baseball and near softball size in Omaha from pictures on social media. Core went just north of me but I had a lot of ping pong to golf ball size fall for 5+ minutes. These had already melted a fair amount from the rain before I could safely go out and grab some to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 30, 2017 Author Share Posted June 30, 2017 A late season severe threat targets the southern Plains later today. The focus will be maximized along a composite front/outflow boundary from northwest Texas into Oklahoma. Although favorable deep layer shear (30-45kts) should juxtapose with large CAPE (3000-4000 J/kg mixed layer), relatively weak flow in the 0-2km layer should keep the main threats as large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can't be completely ruled out, given enhanced low level vorticity near the boundary. CAM guidance has been inconsistent with details of convective evolution, which is not surprising given subtle details regarding the boundary. Given the parameter space, including 7.5-8.5C/km 700-500mb lapse rates, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few intense supercells with very large hail, although the window for discrete activity may be limited given shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the W-E oriented boundary. S to SE low-level winds should help somewhat, especially if those winds are/become a bit stronger than progged. My guess is that NW Texas/SW Oklahoma will have the greatest relative severe threat late this afternoon, where remnant outflow intersects with a wave of low pressure. Obs in SW Oklahoma at 10z include temperatures already in the mid-80s with low to mid-70s dew-points and SE winds near the surface. Discrete/semi-discrete convection should also initiate in an upslope regime across northeastern New Mexico, but less favorable boundary layer moisture should limit the threat there. There would appear to be potential for one or forward propagating convective systems later tonight as well, perhaps one from SE OK into AR and another farther west, pending convective evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 19, 2017 Author Share Posted July 19, 2017 A long-lived supercell has lasted for more than 200 miles from southeastern Montana into South Dakota this evening. Hail was the biggest impact, as Newell, SD was hit the hardest. I was able to photograph the storm, mainly from its southwest side and here are a few of the scenes, including hail up to ~1.75 inches in diameter. Large hail-producing supercell just north of Belle Fourche, SD. Large hail in Vale, SD. Closing out the day's storm chase with a shot from Sturgis, SD of the supercell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 EF-2 tornado hit Tulsa very early this morning. http://ktul.com/news/local/nws-confirms-tornado-in-midtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Dangerous supercell tonight near Kiowa, KS, moving SE. This supercell is warned for 4" hail & 70 MPH wind currently. Movement is southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Ouch time BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Dodge City KS 248 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017 The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Trego County in west central Kansas... Western Ellis County in central Kansas... * Until 345 PM CDT * At 248 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southwest of Ogallah, or 7 miles southeast of Wakeeney, moving east at 40 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...Softball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Wakeeney, Ellis, Ogallah, Trego Center and Riga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Enhanced risk for severe weather today across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. All severe hazards possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Looks like a TOG near Nicollet, MN, strong couplet with CC drop. CC was bigger last scan. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Confirmed on the ground now. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Still on the ground heading for Gaylord, MN. FD reporting 3 tornadoes on the ground coming out of Nicollet County. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 PDS warning on it. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Large TOG about to move into Melvin, IA. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Here is a tornado-warned classic supercell in the center of Nebraska. There is no debris indication on CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 dual rotations at Almeria, Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 tornado spotted at Almeria, Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 From earlier near Almeria, Nebraska. Tornado even showing up on the base reflectivity mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1204 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE KANSAS CITY METRO... The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Wyandotte County in northeastern Kansas... Leavenworth County in northeastern Kansas... Johnson County in east central Kansas... Clay County in west central Missouri... Platte County in west central Missouri... Jackson County in west central Missouri... * Until 800 AM CDT Tuesday * At 1201 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with very heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring, and will continue to worsen through the early morning hours. Water rescues are ongoing throughout the Kansas City area, and creeks and streams are rising rapidly. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the Kansas City Metropolitan Area. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe, Independence, Lee`s Summit, Shawnee, Blue Springs, Lenexa, Leavenworth, Leawood, Raytown, Liberty, Gladstone, Grandview, Prairie Village, Gardner, Grain Valley, Lansing, Excelsior Springs and Merriam. This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 29. Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 410 and 423. Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 32. Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 202 and 235. Interstate 29 between mile markers 0 and 25. Interstate 635 between mile markers 0 and 12. Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 16. Interstate 435 between mile markers 0 and 83. Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 206 and 226. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 associated with Tropical Storm Harvey- small tornado-warned supercell, near Houston, tracking northwestward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 storm reports for eastern Texas (HGX, LCH, CRP offices) Aug 24-Aug 26 at 4:00PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Come tornado hell and high water. At any rate the Houston metro pretty much all reports 25-40 inches of rainfall through 9am Monday 28 Aug. I am thinking another 8-12 inches through Tuesday. I'm not as heavy as some forecasts because the really deep conveyor belt is off east. However Houston is not out of the woods. Deformation zone, which would be so fun in winter, is setting up shop over town. Like winter, rates will be less than the front conveyor. However like winter, rates will still be impressive. Don't be fooled by receding water. It will rise again even if not to new highs. Exception is down stream from Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. Some of the high-res models have Harvey lifting out on Wednesday, which would cut off rain before another 20 inches falls. Hoping and praying it is so. Board has members from Houston. We all wish they are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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