Jim Martin Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Solid 70/40 tornado probs on that watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Possible Tornado southeast of Las Vegas, New Mexico currently. Storm moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Can't say I've seen a tornado warning around vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 I'm 35,000 feet in the air right now about to pass over Albuquerque. Different way to chase...Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 I'm guessing the overshooting tops are the TW'd cells. We're just south of Albuquerque - camera is pointed due West towards Santa Rosa.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Hey guys. Dumb question. When you say tor probs where is that? Meso discussion? Watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Misstertwister said: Hey guys. Dumb question. When you say tor probs where is that? Meso discussion? Watches? It is listed when a convective weather watch is issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Big picture view currently of the watches/warnings in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Yep, I don't usually think of New Mexico with 70/40 probs for tornadoes. Weird. To find the probs go to the SPC tornado watch page then look at the top for Probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 I suppose everyone's watching the storm sw of Clovis for development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Clovis supercell is now tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2017 Author Share Posted May 9, 2017 Kind of underwhelmed right now. Surface obs across the New Mexico side of the watch show meager low-level moisture, with dew-points mainly in the 40s (and dropping at many sites). Mesoanalysis shows soaring LCLs and decreasing CAPE. A more bonafide tornado threat may not develop until after 00z as the low-level jet cranks and better boundary layer moisture backs westward. If the Clovis vicinity cell can hang on and eventually ingest richer quality low-level moisture, maybe then it can better organize. Any sig/long-track tornado threat seems highly conditional, unless something goes up soon across West Texas, or if low-level jet-aided moisture transport leads to modest airmass recovery across eastern New Mexico this evening. Such recovery seems fairly unlikely, although HRRR continues to show rapid moisture advection by 00-02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 47 minutes ago, Quincy said: Kind of underwhelmed right now. Surface obs across the New Mexico side of the watch show meager low-level moisture, with dew-points mainly in the 40s (and dropping at many sites). Mesoanalysis shows soaring LCLs and decreasing CAPE. A more bonafide tornado threat may not develop until after 00z as the low-level jet cranks and better boundary layer moisture backs westward. If the Clovis vicinity cell can hang on and eventually ingest richer quality low-level moisture, maybe then it can better organize. Any sig/long-track tornado threat seems highly conditional, unless something goes up soon across West Texas, or if low-level jet-aided moisture transport leads to modest airmass recovery across eastern New Mexico this evening. Such recovery seems fairly unlikely, although HRRR continues to show rapid moisture advection by 00-02z. This. The cells look starved both of moisture and low-level vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Actually, I am a little impressed now, that enough water and ice is in this tornado-warned storm that the level-3 nexrad algorithms say that there's 4.0" hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Impressive TBSS on that Clovis cell. Watch how the spike goes from almost due south to due east, due to the storm's location from the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Cells on the TX/NM line are becoming more eastward oriented than the previously north direction maintained by earlier cells this afternoon. This can be good for moisture ingestion. Confirmed tornado 11 miles north of Clovis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 Had this funnel cloud a few minutes ago to the southwest of Morton, Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Brief tornado touchdown reported with this supercell near Enochs, Texas. Tornado Warning currently in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Looks to be some tornados ongoing now. LLJ FTW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 The next supercell now crossing into Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Several discrete supercells late tonight in eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Evening model runs looking pretty interesting over the E TX Panhandle and west-central/SW OK tomorrow. 00z soundings show high quality BL moisture in place over the source regions (FWD, CRP, BRO). Even OUN has an 11-12˚C H85 dewpoint. Most of the VBV showing up in the soundings by 00z looks to be above 500 mb, which is another plus. Steep lapse rates showing up over the EML source regions for this setup. Barring a very significant increase in convective coverage tonight, I think we should see a fairly healthy warm sector tomorrow afternoon. Going to be dependent on the western branch of the low level jet strengthening sufficiently for higher tornado chances though, but synoptically speaking, it looks like one that could yield a few tubes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 33 minutes ago, andyhb said: Evening model runs looking pretty interesting over the E TX Panhandle and west-central/SW OK tomorrow. 00z soundings show high quality BL moisture in place over the source regions (FWD, CRP, BRO). Even OUN has an 11-12˚C H85 dewpoint. Most of the VBV showing up in the soundings by 00z looks to be above 500 mb, which is another plus. Steep lapse rates showing up over the EML source regions for this setup. Barring a very significant increase in convective coverage tonight, I think we should see a fairly healthy warm sector tomorrow afternoon. Going to be dependent on the western branch of the low level jet strengthening sufficiently for higher tornado chances though, but synoptically speaking, it looks like one that could yield a few tubes. Certainly... Most of the 00Z models I have seen thus far are indicating a fairly substantial parameter space developing, though spatially limited, across E TX PH and into W/SW OK... main question would be convective initiation, given the expected strength of the cap... Nonethless most models show convective inhibition weakening sufficiently by 21-00Z for CI to occur along the DL (perhaps a DL bulge near the jet max will increase low-level convergence and will further aid in CI)... however the 12NAM/3NAM/GFS are all fairly sparse, and short-lived, with convection along the dry line by late afternoon/early evening. Tricky forecast. Any discrete supercells within that parameter-space "sweet spot" would have a good shot at tornadoes, and perhaps a strong tornado, given impressive PBL moisture --> low-LCLs, ~200m2/s2 0-1KM SRH, impressive instability (especially low-level 0-3KM CAPE, nearing 150J/KG per 00Z GFS), and strong cloud-layer shear of 60-75kts. If CAMs continue to zone in on this particular area, wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% hatched TOR by the 1630 or 20Z D1SWO updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 There are still some severe-warned supercells ongoing at 11:40PM mountain/ 12:40PM central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Strong rotation noted on radar west of Livingston, Louisiana currently. Large hail/damaging wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Tornado Warning now for this supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Today's radar looks almost exactly like tomorrow's radar image could. Today's 01z radar vs. 3km NAM prediction for 02z (25 hrs in the future) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Some giant hail near Hale, CO, A tornado, too, reported by storm chaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 tornado and hailstorm at nearly the same location as yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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