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Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion


Quincy
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1 hour ago, bjc0303 said:

Gotta be able to anticipate how things are going to evolve. The atmosphere isn't static.

We'll see the degree of backing we achieve. Looks like due south now just ahead of the dryline so it's a good start. I'm still not super enthusiastic though.

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2 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

We were not that enthusiastic yesterday. Until the storm developed near Dimmitt.

That was an exceptional case. For every one of those that produce on a marginal day there's 10 more that don't. I'll gladly eat my words if I'm wrong though.

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For the Nebraska cell at least it's another instance of relatively high CAPE  (3000) and relatively modest shear and helicity values somewhat similar to yesterday.  Not saying by any means we'll get such a whopper of a tornado.  But low to mid 60's dews are available ahead of those cells.

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25 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

For the Nebraska cell at least it's another instance of relatively high CAPE  (3000) and relatively modest shear and helicity values somewhat similar to yesterday.  Not saying by any means we'll get such a whopper of a tornado.  But low to mid 60's dews are available ahead of those cells.

think that one had more to do with vertical vorticity near-sfc along the boundary 

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1 minute ago, Jim Martin said:

Wall cloud being reported with the storm in Comanche County, KS.

Not too surprising... Basically the only storm thus far in that "sweet spot" for today that appears to have became well rooted to the boundary-layer. 

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Watch the discrete cell forming in the eastern Texas panhandle. It's been well-modeled by the HRRR all day. Although deep layer and low-level shear are lower-end, strong instability and veering winds with height (and favorable low level wind flow out of the southeast as Jim mentioned) should favor storm organization and maintenance for at least a couple of hours. 

IMG_1109.thumb.PNG.d6121819ef3368b648c315500083ba9a.PNG

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4 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Watch the discrete cell forming in the eastern Texas panhandle. It's been well-modeled by the HRRR all day. Although deep layer and low-level shear are lower-end, strong instability and veering winds with height (and favorable low level wind flow out of the southeast as Jim mentioned) should favor storm organization and maintenance for at least a couple of hours. 

IMG_1109.thumb.PNG.d6121819ef3368b648c315500083ba9a.PNG

Storm is already beginning to split.

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